Putting the 114-year-old party back into triumphalist gear is a daunting challenge. Between the last year of Rajiv Gandhi's presidentship in 1991 and the first time that Sonia Gandhi campaigned for the party in 1998, the party got leaner by over a hundred seats, from 244 to 141. Worse still, its vote share declined from 36.55 per cent to 25.81 per cent, a level where it stands only 0.47 per cent taller than arch rival BJP. In 1991, this gap was more than 17 per cent. In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress plummeted from five seats in 1991 to zero in 1998.

The collapse has dimensions other than statistical. The party has been out of power at the Centre for three years and seven months, the longest stretch of its being out in the cold since Independence. Of the 27 states, it is in power only in eight. In the two large states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with 139 Lok Sabha constituencies between them, the challenger to the BJP is not the Congress but regional parties like Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). With the drop in vote share, its leveraging power is certainly on the wane. In Tamil Nadu, its alliance partner aiadmk had to be coaxed for days to accommodate it in just 12 of the 40 seats in the state and in Pondicherry. In Bihar, the Congress will be lucky to get a largesse of even a third of the state's 54 seats from Laloo Prasad Yadav's RJD. Besides, the revolt of Sharad Pawar has dealt a devastating blow in Maharashtra, the state that elected 33 Congress MPs in 1998. Given such a predicament, the state of the party would have been akin to the dwindling aristocracy in Anton Chekov's story -- certainly not upbeat.

There are two reasons though why the Congress hopes to improve its position this year. First, Sonia's assumption of party presidentship last year has given it a new dynastic icon. Its absence in 1996 and nebulous role in 1998 is believed to have contributed to a loss of votes. Further, the Congress hopes that the A.B. Vajpayee government, having been in power for 16 months now, is prone to be hit by "incumbentitis". This hope is built on trends visible in the state assembly elections last year in Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. In these states the BJP vote share declined, within eight months of its coming to power at the Centre, by 6-17 per cent. Congress strategists think the anti-incumbency wave will be intensified in the Lok Sabha polls.

Even if the BJP skids, it is doubtful whether the Congress can reap the benefit. In Maharashtra, Pawar had the first-strike advantage and has thus heavily dented the traditional Congress bastions -- sugar cooperatives, district cooperative banks and mill mazdoor unions. It can reasonably hope to recover the Maharashtra loss from Madhya Pradesh, where, in a near head-on battle with a declining BJP, its 1998 tally of 10 seats (out of 40) cannot but improve. From the major states where it fared badly, the Congress seems on a winning wicket only in Gujarat, Karnataka, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Delhi. Of the 75 seats in these states, the party won only 21. Besides, in the vast expanse of Uttar Pradesh, it has so far not been able to either rebuild its organisation or succeed in sewing up an alliance with the third runner, the BSP.

Sonia is nevertheless trying her best to regain the support of the minorities and the Dalits, and at the same time cash in on the party's traditional goodwill in the genteel society. To win back the middle class, the party's manifesto will put an emphasis on employment, promising to create "one crore new jobs". For the minorities, it has a detailed package with the focus on primary education. Sonia had recently written a letter in Urdu, signed by her in the calligraphic script and addressed to over 10,000 Muslim notables. For Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh, she is fighting an electoral tug-of-war with SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav.

To get back into the reckoning for forming a government at the Centre, the Congress needs to improve its tally substantially, from 141 to at least 180, if not more. Its chances rest on holding on to the ground that is its own and making forays in the states where it had withered away.

S.M. Krishna: Good Shepherd
Known as the convent-educated Deve Gowda, the former deputy CM has managed to enthuse the Karnataka unit. Hopes to exploit the simmering BJP-Lok Shakti rift.

Ashok Gehlot: Mr Nice Guy
Good organiser but is yet to find his feet as Rajasthan CM. Has run foul of the powerful Jat lobby and has been attacked for his Government's indifferent performance.

Shankersinh Vaghela: Cutting Edge
A latter day Solanki, commands a following amongst the OBCs. The Congress is banking heavily on him to tilt the scale in its favour in Gujarat.

S.C. Jamir: Sangma Successor
Despite delivering some uncomfortable hometruths at the AICC session in Delhi, he is the only leader with stature from the North-east following Sangma's exit.

Bhajan Lal: Manipulation Master
The Haryana strongman is on a better wicket. With divisions over backing Bansi Lal now behind it, the state unit has a near monopoly on the opposition space.