Cover Story: Elections 99 :The Vajpayee Wave

The results of an exclusive India Today-Insight poll indicate the ascendency of the BJP.

The India-Today Insight Poll

Who will make the best PM?

Should Vajpayee have gone to Lahore?

Which party is the best?

Why do you oppose Sonia Gandhi as the next PM?

Who supports whom?

How was the Kargil crisis managed by the Vajpayee government?

Which party is the most corrupt?

Having developed a bizarre addiction to political uncertainty, India now seems poised for a respite. Some seven weeks before the final vote for the 13th Lok Sabha, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP alliance seems headed for a conclusive victory. So conclusive that the Congress is not only in danger of being outpolled by the BJP but runs the risk of touching an all-time low in terms of seats. These are the findings of the India Today-Insight (an associate of ORG-MARG) opinion poll conducted between August 4 and 8 among 20,640 registered voters.

Backed by the euphoria of a victorious encounter in Kargil and a series of strategic alliances with powerful regional players, Vajpayee begins the election campaign with an awesome popularity rating, both personally and for his government. For a regime that tottered on the brink at the beginning of the year, the recovery has been spectacular. Not only is Congress President Sonia Gandhi's personal popularity down but the BJP-led alliance is also being perceived as the formation most suited for coping with India's problems. Even stability, a plank that has traditionally been associated with the Congress, has now come to favour the saffron camp. Incumbency, far from being a hindrance, is proving to be the BJP-alliance's foremost asset. So intense is the Vajpayee government's goodwill that even the charge of promoting communalism isn't washing. And in the backdrop of Kargil and tensions with Pakistan, it is the gainer from a near-automatic association with national security.

It is difficult to assess the extent to which this surge in popularity is due to the BJP or its allies. While the tie-ups will help the National Democratic Alliance and its associates reap a full harvest of seats against a fractured opposition, the biggest beneficiary may turn out to be the BJP. Judging by trends, its vote may touch 32 per cent. It may enter the new Lok Sabha with nearly 220 MPs. For the alliance, the biggest gains are likely to be registered in Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Bihar. Contrary to its fears, the BJP combine doesn't stand to lose in Uttar Pradesh, though anti-incumbency could cost it seats in Gujarat and Punjab.

For the Congress, the unresolved confusion between peddling one-party rule and striking deals with regional players is proving costly. In psephological terms, it has made the party's task daunting. Thanks to vote consolidation with its allies, the BJP needs a 10 per cent swing to secure a majority on its own. The Congress, despite polling marginally more than the BJP in 1998, needs a swing of 17.5 per cent to cross 272. Conversely, the poll suggests that the Congress on its own will hold on to its 1998 vote. But this stagnation could cost it around 40 seats. Sharad Pawar's breakaway in Maharashtra will also affect it adversely, though the devastation may not be that great. That's what the Congress must bank on to repel what seems like an emerging Vajpayee wave.

	METRO TODAY \| DAILY NEWS \| ASTROLOGY \| ARCHIVES \| INDIA TODAY \| HOME