Neighbours: Pakistan: Sharif's Midlife Crisis

With a stagnant economy, waning popularity and the Opposition itching to oust him, the Pakistan PM faces his most serious challenge halfway through his tenure.

On the face of it nothing appears to have changed in Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's lifestyle. Last Saturday, as he does on most weekends, Sharif, 47, flew down to Lahore to play cricket for a couple of hours with the local team at the Gymkhana ground. Donning whites, he went out to open the batting, his favourite position, slogged 89 runs and after the match even fielded questions from journalists. He seemed cocky about his performance and dismissed the turnout at opposition rallies against him as insignificant.

Later that day, on hearing Sharif's barbs, Imran Khan, former Pakistan cricket captain and now chief of the Tehrik-i-Insaaf party, smirked that given Sharif's current reputation he wouldn't be surprised if the prime minister even fixed the practice match. After the Kargil debacle, Khan points out, "Sharif has done the impossible. He has united the Opposition under the one-point agenda of ousting him." The dozen-odd opposition parties are planning to organise a major rally in Lahore on September 1 with the slogan: Go, Nawaz, Go.

Exactly midway through his second tenure as prime minister, Sharif, who had emerged as the most powerful civilian head of government ever, suddenly appears vulnerable. After Kargil, Sharif's personal popularity dropped as people remain confused over the real aim of engaging India in a serious border conflict. His reputation as a businessman-prime minister has taken a severe beating with the economy still in a shambles and over 5,000 industrial units, both large and medium, falling sick. His recent efforts to jump-start the economy by launching highly populist schemes, including the construction of five lakh houses for the poor and 5,000 km of motorways connecting villages, have been greeted with cynicism by his opponents. Last week his woes doubled when he was forced by the imf, which had helped the country stave off bankruptcy by rescheduling loans, to announce a highly unpopular 15 per cent hike in sales tax on a range of food and fuels.

So, will Nawaz go? Faced with such a bagful of woes, coupled with the humiliation over Kargil, any other prime minister in the past would have been toppled. But Sharif is still in firm control of all the levers of powers in Pakistan, whether it's the presidency, the army or Parliament. The ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) has a decisive majority of 136 seats in the 217-member National Assembly. Hence there is very little threat of a democratic ouster unless his own party revolts against him. Though there have been murmurs of dissent, Sharif so far remains unchallenged in the PML. His main opposition, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), is floundering after a special court sentenced its leader Benazir Bhutto to five years in jail having found her guilty of corruption. Bhutto has chosen to remain abroad while appealing to the Supreme Court against the verdict.

None of the other parties can seriously challenge Sharif although they could be a tremendous nuisance and embarrass him at times. The right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami has come out strongly against the prime minister. But while it has the ability to draw huge crowds and has the backing of the mullahs, its electoral muscle has always been suspect. The pml's erstwhile ally in Sindh, the Muttaheda Qaumi Movement (MQM) which controls Karachi, has had a bitter parting of ways with Sharif. It is even contemplating joining hands with its arch rival, the PPP, to bring down the government through a series of agitations. It is a threat that Sharif will have to take cognizance of because the rest of the Opposition consists of, as one of his aides put it, "tonga parties".

Sharif, though, is not underestimating the most serious challenge he faces in his two-and-half-year rule. Political observers have noticed a dramatic change in his style of functioning. Earlier he had been accused of operating largely through a coterie that included his brother and Chief Minister of Punjab, Shahbaz Sharif. Now, the prime minister makes sure that the cabinet meets regularly and all important decisions are taken by it. He has also been going out of his way to pacify the army which is upset that it had to take much of the flak for the Kargil misadventure. During the Independence Day celebrations, the Government announced as many as 64 medals for bravery, including the highest award, the Nishan-i-Haider, given posthumously to two of its soldiers who died fighting in Kargil.

It is his handling of the economy, however, that will prove crucial to Sharif's survival in the coming months. Much of the current problem stems from the sanctions imposed by the US after the Chagai nuclear tests in May 1998. And the Rs 5.6 billion bail-out that Pakistan sought from the IMF the year before that. The past few years have seen exports stagnate at $8 billion annually and last year it even declined by 12 per cent. The economy's growth rate has been falling steadily -- last year it grew at 3.1 per cent as compared to a low 4.3 per cent during 1997-98. The Pakistani rupee has been devalued twice. The stock market too has been volatile. From a high of 1,500 points it shed 800 points after the nuclear tests and has now recovered to around 1,200 points. With revenue collection falling well short of targets, the deficit has been ballooning, as has government debt.

Sharif has to walk a treacherous path. The IMF is calling for higher taxes and cut in expenditure. At the same time, the prime minister is hoping that pumping government funds into the housing scheme for the poor and the motorways projects will revive the construction industry and give a boost to economic growth. If these measures fail, the Opposition fears that people's disillusionment may lead to increased lawlessness and possibly anarchy.

Already, Sharif has been accused of pampering his native Punjab at the expense of other provinces. The Opposition believes this could lead to increased sectarian conflicts. There is even talk of a sort of Talibanisation taking place within Pakistan though both the Government and key opposition leaders dismiss such fears as unfounded. For India, the uncertainty in Pakistan is troubling. Any substantial dialogue with Pakistan can take place only after the new government is formed in India. With anti-India feelings still high, rising frustrations in Pakistan could manifest itself in acts of aggression.

It is a situation that can test even the best of politicians. In the past, Sharif has shown that he is capable of taking tough decisions and battling against great odds. Now is the time for him to prove his mettle. For doomsayers, though, the late Pakistani poet Faiz Ahmed Faiz had an answer. Once asked what he thought could happen to Pakistan, he replied: "Barkhurdar, mujhe khauf to ye hai ki kuch bhi nahi hoga. Aise hi chalte rahega (Young man, my fear is that nothing will happen. Things will continue the way they are)." That perhaps reflects the current mood of cynicism in Pakistan.

THE OPPOSITION: Unprecedented Unity
Qazi Hussain Ahmed Ameer, Jamaat-e-Islami Mansura, represents hardliners who though not electorally poewrful remain a potent force.	"The mood is against the Government. After Kargil, the people are feeling betrayed." "Sharif is an isolated man." "Pakistan will not become a Taliban country. We want an Islamic democracy. We do not want to be a pariah."
"Nawaz runs Pakistan like a Mughal-e-Azam." "It is a sham democracy. We are heading for anarchy."	Imran Khan chairman, Tehrik-i-Insaaf Lahore, whose debut in politics two years ago was disastrous, now feels his movement is gaining momentum.
Nasreen Jalil senator, MQM, Karachi voices the growing anguish of the party against Sharif and the PML which till recently was their ally.	"We are totally disillusioned and angry." "Nawaz has a fascist policy. Pakistan has become like a police state."
"He is a lame-duck prime minister and can't deliver." "If lawlessness increases it may lead to a Taliban-like situation." "He would be better off if he stopped lying about the government's progress."	Ch. Ahmad Mukhtar, secretary-general, PPP, Islamabad, feels despite Benazir's woes she is on a comeback trail.
Indo-Pak Relations: Blow Hot, Blow Cold
LT-GEN (Retd) ASAD DURRANI former ISI chief, Rawalpindi The army feels let down by Sharif after the Kargil conflict though he is making amends.	"There is nothing to talk about. So it is better not to do so."
"The spirit of Lahore has dwindled but the compulsion for a dialogue has only increased." "India's nuclear doctrine is a recipe for an arms race. No first use is mere sugar-coating. " "Clinton should follow the dialogue closely and if it gets stuck, then the international community must step in." "Sudden improvements in relations may not happen. Things are still very brittle." "Lahore bus should continue."	Sartaj Aziz, foreign minister, Islamabad, continues to sing the tune of peace to offset the adverse international opinion that was generated against Pakistan after the Kargil crisis and wrest the initiative from India. If talks break down again, Pakistan wants US intervention.
Tanvir Ahmad Khan, chairman, Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, despairs that war as an instrument of policy still remains a major threat.	"There is no Elizabethan revenge theme going on." "It's not easy to pick up the threads."
"Both countries paid the price. We should put Kargil behind."	LT-GEN (Retd) Sardar Ali, president, Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad. Think-tanks are worried that eyeball engagements could lead to serious miscalculations
SUPPORTERS: There is No Alternative
"We are taking measures that will jump-start the economy."	Ahsan Iqbal, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, Islamabad. For the crisis-ridden Sharif's tenure, the real test will be the economy.
Ijaz-ul-Haq, Senior Vice-President, PML MP, Rawalpindi. Zia's son is one among the growing number of hawks in the ruling PML.	"The way Kargil was resolved has not gone down well." "We shouldn't trade or play cricket with India."
"Sharif is not floundering. He is still the country's best bet."	Begum Salma Ahmed, former PML MP, Karachi.
The Industry: Spiralling Downward
Majyd Aziz, Chairman, Site Association of Industry, Karachi. Unlike India, signs of an economic recovery remains very weak in Pakistan.	"Demand is still slack and 5,000 units have fallen sick."
"We are waiting and watching." "Sharif is lucky that he does not have a good opposition."	Pervez Hanif, President, Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry, is confident that Sharif's recent economic measures have helped.
Shahzada Alam Monnoo, President, Monnoo Group, Lahore. Industry is perturbed but feels there is no alternative to Sharif.	"Sharif has not lived up to our expectations."
The People: Between the Devil and the Deep Sea
"Now they are taxing even rotis. Prices are doubling."	Abdul Samad, Textile Worker, Karachi. With the recent hike in taxes people like Samad have been hit badly and are angry.
Sheema Kirmani, Classical Dancer, Karachi, worries that because of cultural stagnation, people have become more aggressive.	"Young people don't rebel. They are becoming conformists." "Frustrations are rising and so are the suicides."
"On Kashmir, Pakistan should not relent."	Nasim Zehra, Columnist, Islamabad. Kashmir still dominates drawing-room conversations and anti-India feeling is strong after Kargil.
Dr Mushtaq Khan, Economist, Islamabad. Those educated abroad are more pragmatic but their viewpoint remains a minority voice.	"We should piggyback on India's economy."

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