Sept 27, 1999

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Indian politics is plagued by splits and distorted by expedient alliances. The outcome then hinges on the arithmetic of election management. Deputy Editor Swapan Dasgupta looks at some of this year's great split-swing imponderables.

Do Votes TRANSFER?
Last week, we projected the post-dissolution realignments on the 1998 results to suggest that the BJP-led alliance flag off this election from the vantage position of 308 seats ("Splits and Swings", September 20). The calculations assumed a broad transfer of votes from parties which were rivals earlier to the new alliance. But do votes transfer by diktat? Broadly speaking, yes. But a successful transfer has to be accompanied by a common perception of interests or enmity.

The Congress and the BSP allied in the Uttar Pradesh assembly election of 1996. The results were mixed. The BSP votes transferred to the Congress but not vice versa. Obviously, the social base of the Congress felt squeamish about the ally. No such inhibitions were in evidence in Orissa's BJP-BJD alliance. The vote transfers worked from top to bottom. Take Bolangir and Deogarh as case studies.

This election could witness a similar trend in Gujarat. If the 1998 votes of Shankersinh Vaghela's RJP transfer in toto to the Congress, it would put the BJP in difficulty. There's a similar problem for Laloo Yadav if JD votes transfer to the BJP-JD(U) combine in Bihar. In both states, the new alignments are premised on my-enemy's-enemy-is-my-friend principle.

Can SHARAD PAWAR be a spoiler?
In 1998, the Congress-RPI-SP alliance swept the board in Maharashtra, winning 38 of the 48 seats. The victory, however, was not due to a swing against the BJP-Sena. The saffron combine's vote actually increased by an average of 2.5 per cent per seat. The sweep was the result of the consolidation of anti-BJP-Sena votes. The IOU (index of opposition unity) of the anti-BJP-Sena parties increased from 60.6 per cent to 88.9 per cent. This 28.3 per cent IOU rise led to an average 12.3 per cent change in the margin.

In view of this crucial dependence of "secular unity", Sharad Pawar can wreak havoc on the Congress. Even if his party takes only 20 per cent of the Congress-led alliance's 1998 vote, it will have a dramatic impact on seats. No wonder the exit polls are predicting a complete U-turn.

How much damage can PAWAR do?
The outcome in Maharashtra will depend on the Congress' ability to contain Sharad Pawar's NCP and the ability of the BJP-Sena to stem any anti-incumbency tide. The IOU will fall by 25.7 per cent if Pawar takes just 25 per cent of the Congress vote and the BJP-Sena retains its 1998 vote. For the anti-BJP-Sena parties, the only way out is for Pawar to be ghettoised in his areas of strength. The problem lies in deciding his areas of strength and weakness. Which is why the possible Congress losses and BJP-Sena gains can be projected but not a possible NCP tally. Until the results, the NCP's following is a subject of pure conjecture.

Can Sonia Reclaim Uttar Pradesh?
For the Congress, the issue in Uttar Pradesh is not merely to secure votes but gain seats. Last week, we showed that even a 25 per cent uniform swing in its favour cannot yield it more than 14 seats. However, reports indicate that there won't be any uniform swing. The swing to the Congress is likely to be more pronounced in Uttarakhand and western Uttar Pradesh. Here, there is a likelihood of a swing away from the BJP. In central Uttar Pradesh, where the Vajpayee effect is more pronounced, the Congress' gains may be more modest and could be mostly at the expense of the sp. Ironically, this movement of votes within the anti-BJP parties may help the BJP make up some of its losses in western Uttar Pradesh. In eastern Uttar Pradesh, the Congress starts with a severe disadvantage. The gains in this belt could accrue mostly to the BSP, mainly due to Muslim voters deserting the SP. Yet, such are the vagaries of the country's electoral system that the differentiated swings could end up making very little difference to the overall tally in the state.

Is the East turning Saffron?
With the JD rump joining the BJD in Orissa and merging with the Samata Party in Bihar to form the JD(U), the polarisation in the east is total. If 80 per cent of the 1998 JD votes transfer to the BJP-led alliance in the two states, it will gain dramatically.

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