Oct 4, 1999

Elections 99

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The world's most wanted terrorist trains his guns on India and gives a dangerous edge to militancy in Kashmir. Security forces scramble to meet the new threat.

By Jason Burke in Islamabad and Harinder Baweja

Head west out of Amritsar and keep going. The drive may not be very comfortable but at least finding the route is straightforward. It'll take you a few hours to Lahore and then it is a fast three-hour run along the new motorway to Islamabad. Go on up to Peshawar, the bustling and violent Pakistani frontier town, through the Khyber Pass, across the border into Afghanistan and then, keeping the Kabul river on your right, drive for another three hours. After a 100 more miles and a dozen checkposts you'll be threading a way through the bazaars of Jalalabad. Turn left at the main intersection and aim for the dusty hills on the southern horizon. Cross a bridge and drive up to the two Taliban tanks dug in on the crest of the ridge.

If you're sensible, you'll stop here. If you are not then keep going along a straight flat road with lines of tall cypress-like trees on either side. After about five miles you'll see the overgrown orchards and dilapidated huts of Farmihadda, once a Soviet-style collective farm and now the place where Osama Bin Laden -- the world's most wanted terrorist -- has built his new home. It is from here that Bin Laden is believed to have issued his threat of September 16, which appeared in Jang, the mass circulated Urdu daily published from Pakistan. Calling for an all out jehad against India for the first time, Bin Laden declared: "India and America are now our biggest enemies ... all mujahideen groups in Pakistan should come together now to target India ... we are always ready to help the Kashmiri mujahideen."

Even before the chilling statement came from Farmihadda -- where Bin Laden has established a new communications, training and logistics centre -- senior Indian officials had been concerned that a dangerous nexus may be building up between Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Saudi terrorist. During the Kargil war, there were rumours that Bin Laden's fighters were among those pouring fire down from the heights of Tololing and Batalik. One Indian intelligence report claimed that Bin Laden's personal bodyguards were at the forefront, helping keep the supply routes open. And also that the Stinger missiles used to bring down two Indian aircraft may have come from his armoury. Now a senior official in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) says, "We don't need to hear from Farmihadda to know that a lethal cocktail is being brewed. We already knew. The coming together of the ISI, Bin Laden and his hosts, the Taliban, is serious." Their worst fears are, in fact, coming true. India appears to have become a target of the man the Americans, and now ironically the Russians too, see as their single biggest security problem since the end of the Cold War.

Bin Laden's sudden declaration of jehad against India is not being viewed as an emotional outburst. It was delivered at a point when India and the US are adding a new dimension to their relationship through cooperation on counter-terrorism. Bin Laden's statement came shortly before Ambassador Michael Sheehan, coordinator in the US Department for Counter-terrorism, held senior-level talks in Delhi. Sheehan came to Delhi as a follow-up to the visit of two senior mea officials to the US a fortnight ago to discuss the new threat emanating from Afghanistan. Says a US diplomat: "We were enthused by India's willingness in the US to discuss measures that we could cooperate on." Among the issues discussed were swapping of intelligence and, significantly, joint training exercises to combat terrorism. This may have upset the arch terrorist.

Bin Laden's threat also has a direct co-relation to India's new Afghan policy. India had always supported the former regime headed by Burhanuddin Rabbani and Ahmed Shah Masood and of late it has been extremely vocal in its criticism of the Taliban. At a press briefing recently, External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh had even gone to the extent of stating that India would no longer "supinely" accept what was happening in Afghanistan but pursue a "proactive" policy. There were indications that India, along with possibly Russia and Iran, had supported Masood and Rabbani in their spirited fight-back against the Taliban's summer offensive to dislodge them from the Panjsher Valley. The Taliban and Bin Laden are furious over the reversals and believe that India had a hand in it.

The revenge for the Kargil debacle is believed to be another major reason. Pakistan and the so-called mujahideen, many of them Afghan mercenaries, are still smarting under the humiliating retreat. Post-Kargil, the ISI has already upgraded its proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir. The militants coming in are better trained, equipped with deadlier arms and strike in much larger groups than ever before. The majority of the militants sneaking in are said to be non-Kashmiris who now dominate organised terrorism in the Valley. Many are believed to be battle-hardened Afghan mercenaries who may have links with Bin Laden. So concerned has been the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), the country's external intelligence agency, over the growing threat posed by Islamic fundamentalists, including Bin Laden, that it recently revised its six-year-old doctrine on threat perception. The analysis of Indian intelligence agencies shows:

• A large number of Arab mujahideen involved in Afghanistan have found it difficult to return to their own countries and consequently a nucleus of pan-Islamic mercenary forces has come into existence. Their presence and acts of terror are increasingly becoming evident in Jammu and Kashmir, apart from other trouble-spots in the world.
• Bin Laden is proving to be a rallying point for militants operating in India and his photographs are reported to have been found in the possession of slain militants in Kashmir.
• There is a growing nexus between Islamic fundamentalists and the criminal fringe elements in various countries. They include the underworld dons of Mumbai, the smugglers of Nepal and the drug mafia in Pakistan.
• Large quantities of sophisticated arms and explosives which have entered the country are yet to be recovered. With reports of their dispersal to various cities, the threat is said to be serious.
• The list of the suspected targets of militant groups is growing: It is not just in Jammu and Kashmir but also in Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat where the communal cauldron can be stirred.

That Bin Laden is lethal as a foe has never been in doubt. It is just over a year since two massive blasts demolished the American embassies in Dar-es-Salaam and Nairobi. The bombs killed more than 200 people, injured 5,000 and catapulted Bin Laden into the front rank of global criminals. The retaliatory US missile strikes on his suspected hideouts established him as a hero of sorts among millions of Muslims. Now Bin Laden's dark eyes stare out of posters displayed proudly in thousands of Pakistani and Afghan shops and tea kiosks.

Son of a Saudi construction millionaire, Bin Laden, 45, became a key player in the jehad against the Soviet-occupation of Afghanistan in the '80s. The former civil engineer-turned militant not only organised the flow of funds, munitions and men to the mujahideen groups and built a number of training camps and depots, but was also in the thick of action.

In the early '90s he was in Sudan fomenting violence. By 1994 he was stripped of his Saudi citizenship for dissident political activities against the royal family. He came to Afghanistan in May 1996 with about 100 followers and is believed to have funded the campaign that led the Taliban successfully into Kabul. Bin Laden's relationship with the Taliban -- a key strength -- remains good. Many of the militia's senior commanders are old comrades. He saved their lives, they saved his. On Fridays -- after prayers -- he goes fishing with Mullah Omar, the reclusive, one-eyed cleric who is the spiritual leader of the Taliban and a good friend. Bin Laden is also a devout Muslim and is said to be prepared to make extreme sacrifices to achieve his aims.

Today, apart from money -- the cia estimates his funds total almost $350 million (Rs 1,505 crore) -- Bin Laden has a network of contacts in key Islamic fundamentalist groups across the globe. Says a senior Indian intelligence officer: "He continues to stay in constant touch with important Islamic militant organisations like the Islamic Jehad in Palestine and the National Islamic Front in Sudan." In the subcontinent he is suspected to have strong links with two militant groups -- the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and the Lashkar-e-Toiba -- that have been at the centre of militant activity in Kashmir. Many of these militants are believed to be trained in Khost in Afghanistan in camps that are run by Bin Laden in collaboration with the Taliban.

The years of jehad have prepared him well for his present life. Bin Laden's domestic arrangements are modest. Farmihadda is a dilapidated collection of outhouses, barns, sheds and residential blocks with debris-filled canals on two sides. The living quarters are sparsely furnished. Bin Laden shuns even rugs and carpets, preferring to squat on the floor or on a small stool. His daily life reflects the rigours of his surroundings. He gets up at dawn to pray and then studies the Koran or other Islamic texts until a light breakfast of dates, yoghurt, flat Afghan bread and black tea. Until recently, he followed a tough physical-training regime, with a daily ride and exercises, but now a bad back -- possibly a result of shrapnel wound sustained while fighting the Russians -- has made anything strenuous impossible. He now uses a cane to walk.

Married with three wives and 13 children who, like him, divide their time between Farmihadda and his home in a disused barrack at the airport near the southern desert city of Kandahar -- the headquarters of the Taliban -- security concerns seem to dominate his life. He travels constantly and rarely spends two nights at the same place. Roads in Afghanistan are appalling and a 200-mile journey can take days. Bin Laden frequently drives for a while in one convoy and then walks or rides for a distance before switching to a second set of vehicles. His satellite phones are often carried in a third convoy. Instead of using them personally -- he believes that the Americans tracked signals from his phone to pinpoint his location for their missiles last year -- Bin Laden usually dictates his message to an aide who relays it over telephone from a separate location.

There have been two reviews of his security in the last 10 months -- both prompted by fears of betrayal. Soon after the US attack, he sacked almost two-thirds of his 200-strong bodyguards. Many of those who survived the first purge were Afghans, former comrades from his days with the mujahideen. But recently most of them were fired too and Bin Laden now relies on a select group of mainly Arab fighters to protect him. And his eldest son, Mohammed, who is believed to be around 16.

Bin Laden's organisation is now known as the "International Islamic Front for Jehad against Jews and Crusaders" and is effectively an umbrella group for all the terrorists currently holed up in Afghanistan. Experts believe that in the absence of the means to genuinely control a vast web of inter-linked terrorist cells, Bin Laden's strategy may be to create the leadership and motivation that might galvanise individual, independent units into action. If they then claim to be part of Bin Laden's organisation it's good for him. More publicity means more recruits. The major input that Bin Laden may make to Kashmir militancy is through funding fundamentalist groups operating in Pakistan, which in turn patronise militant outfits in the Valley.

The role of Pakistan in all this is unclear. There is a strong body of Bin Laden supporters among the army and the intelligence services and also, obviously, among the increasingly powerful clergy. However, there are also many moderate politicians who realise that Pakistan cannot jeopardise its relationship with the US, and the continuing drip-feed of IMF and World Bank loans, by overtly obstructing their efforts to capture the man. Caught in the middle, as ever, is Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who is trying to tread a careful path among domestic opinion, political lobbies and the demands of the West.

In Kashmir, Bin Laden's jehad call has received a mixed response. Wary of offending the US, the All-Party Hurriyat Conference is downplaying any links its supporters have with Bin Laden. "What can Laden do for us when he himself is in hiding?" asks Hurriyat chairman Syed Ali Shah Geelani. Adds senior leader Professor Abdul Ghani: "Kashmiris don't need Ladens. We can sustain the struggle on our own. It is a bogey raised by India to win the US support on Kashmir." There may be some element of truth in that. Also a certain amount of hype by the ruling BJP to keep security at the forefront since the Kargil war has been a major factor in the parliamentary elections. But there is no doubting the threat Bin Laden poses. Especially in Kashmir where there is growing disenchantment with the Farooq Abdullah Government. Says state police chief Gurbachan Jagat: "Kashmir is now the theatre to whip up the Pan-Islamic fervour that Laden is funding."

Bin Laden's jehad may revive the ideological basis of Kashmiri militancy that had been on the wane. The Indian government is beefing up security measures, including bringing the army back into the counter-offensive grid. Security experts expect Pakistan to soon make Kashmir a flashpoint again, especially with reports that over 2,000 well-trained militants have sneaked into the Valley in the past three months. India just cannot afford to ignore the threat from the world's most infamous terrorist holed up in Farmihadda, Jalalabad.

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