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MAHARASHTRA Uneasy to Begin WithThe hastily forged Congress-NCP pact faces a tough test as the Sena-BJP prepares to pounce at the first opportunity. By V Shankar Aiyar You could call it the triumph of arithmetic over politics. Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) fought the elections in Maharashtra against both the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance and the Congress. With both formations falling short of the numbers, Pawar had the option to ally with either to give the NCP a share of power. But arithmetic doesn't always make for good politics. Not when fringe groups and Independents show a clear preference for a secular (read anti-Sena) government or when your own MLAs feel closer to their Congress cousins. Also, with 69 per cent of the vote share going against the Sena-BJP combine, Pawar read the writing on the wall. Eventually, he threw in his lot with the Congress. It was a victory of politics over arithmetic
It was also history repeating itself. As in 1978, virtually every factor is critically in ferment. At the Centre: a humbled Congress, a resurgent coalition of socialists and right-wingers. In Maharashtra the largest combine, the Sena-BJP alliance with 125 MLAs, is out of the government just as the Janata Party was then with 99 MLAs. Vasantdada Patil of Y.B. Chavan's Congress was the chief minister while Nasikrao Tirpude of the Congress (I) was his deputy. As then, so now, Pawar is the key player. Patil's government lasted precisely 134 days before Pawar toppled it to form the nine-party People's Democratic Front (PDF) government that included the Janata Party. Will history repeat itself? Will the political arithmetic change yet again? Congressman Vilasrao Deshmukh, who was crowned the new chief minister of Maharashtra, knows the importance of balancing arithmetic and politics. Conceived live on Doordarshan -- during Aap Ka Faisla -- the eight-party alliance is at best a reluctant association. But AICC General Secretary Sushil Kumar Shinde, who initiated the debate for an alliance on TV, believes the association is stable. "Yeh sarkar chalegi. Both groups have put aside their differences to stop fundamentalism in its tracks." Mumbai Congress chief Murli Deora echoes the view, "The alliance is in keeping with the mandate delivered by the people of Maharashtra." Both are simply articulating the acceptance of political expediency and failed political ambitions. For now it would seem that the mandate of the people still prevails over personal ambitions and bruised egos. But for how long? "Not for very long," says Sena chief Bal Thackeray. So does former chief minister Narayan Rane and former deputy chief minister Gopinath Munde. Enough indications that the saffron brigade was stung came at Thackeray's traditional Dussehra rally. Thackeray promised to "fly the saffron flag atop the Vidhan Bhavan once again, within a few days. Bear my words: there is victory in this defeat." Former state culture minister Pramod Navalkar claims that the Government would fall by the Nagpur session. "Bhujbal could get a taste of his own medicine (Bhujbal had defected from the Sena in 1991 during the winter session) in December at Nagpur." Deshmukh simply brushes aside the threat. "Thackeray's statements need to be taken with a pinch of salt. It is simply his frustration." Former minister and NCP leader Digvijay Khanvilkar finds Navalkar's claim laughable. "There is no law against dreaming and they are day-dreaming. Let's see if they manage to keep their flock together." Obviously buoyed by the success of the tie-up, neither NCP nor Congress MLAs are willing to believe that the power they have acquired against odds could be lost easily. But can the NCP and the Congress keep their flock together? State BJP General Secretary Atul Bhatkalkar has an interesting theory. "Just like in our alliance, in this one too the real bosses reside outside the coalition ministry. It is this outside influence which is destabilising. Fortunately, we had a common macro view shared by Pramod Mahajan and Thackeray. In the case of the Congress-NCP alliance, there is nothing in common. Pawar may have a long-term view and could perhaps deliver but can Sonia Gandhi deliver? Does she have the savvy?" Bhatkalkar believes the inherent contradictions and pulls will continue to plague the coalition. Says Thackeray: "They used to call me the remote control. Now they have two, maybe four, remote controls pulling in opposite directions." Indeed, the coalition -- in true Congress tradition -- has two high commands. If Deshmukh had to cancel his first press briefing to meet Sonia and AICC General Secretary Madhavrao Scindia, Bhujbal too had to rush to seek Pawar's concurrence on critical issues. As a senior Congressman, now part of the ministry, says, "Every time we talk of the high command within the government we will need to specify which one. Both Deshmukh and Bhujbal will have to continuously accommodate and yet be seen as not accommodating." Deshmukh and Bhujbal who were key members in the negotiation -- dubbed the political Navratri -- of this alliance between estranged Congress cousins have already had a taste of tight-rope walking. If Deshmukh had to deal with recalcitrant central leaders who conducted a whisper campaign with 10 Janpath to block the alliance, Bhujbal had to deal with Pawar-loyalists. At one stage of the negotiation, Pawar aide Padamsinh Patil made a presentation -- the future of NCP and Pawar -- to the MLAs. The argument: the NCP has to be built up nationally for which Pawar needs to tour the country extensively. This would be possible only if he took up a post at the Centre and hence NCP should go with the Sena-BJP. The pulls of ambition run through the ministry. If Congressman Ranjit Deshmukh has complained to the high command at being kept out of the ministry, there are similar noises within the NCP too. Not every Maratha is happy at an OBC like Bhujbal being accorded the top job. Pawar had to call for elections among the MLAs to choose their leader in the coalition. Bhujbal who is a Mali (an OBC) won against stiff resistance from Mohite-Patil -- clearly the biggest group leader in the NCP with over 16 MLAs loyal to him -- only after Pawar set up Padamsinh Patil to cancel the Maratha factor. Both NCP and Congress leaders, however, refute any suggestion of a break-up. A former Congress MP even dismisses the "high command" pressure. "It is simply not the same as during Indira Gandhi's or Rajiv's time. Please understand that after sliding to a record low of 112 MPs, there is some appreciation of local realities. There will be some pressures but the overriding factor will be that we hold the CM's post and that Maharashtra is too big a state to fool around with again." A senior NCP leader adds their point of view: "You have to understand the basics. Both of us were together till some weeks ago. Both have been out of power and both have come together for power. Power -- and the compulsion of the nature of the mandate -- is the adhesive that has brought us together and will keep us together." Two factors though could bring about a change in perception. If the BJP makes Pawar an offer at the Centre he can't refuse, he could well change the political arithmetic. Or if the BJP moves the bill to amend the Constitution to prevent foreign-born Indians from occupying the top job. If that happens Pawar's move could mar the carefully crafted coalition. As in 1978, Pawar holds the key to the future of this Government. More important, as in 1978, Mahajan (who was one of the architects of the PDF experiment) is waiting in the wings. For Pawar to make his move. Will he get his timing right? The clock is ticking.
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