The Nation; Assembly Polls; Advantage NDA


	Feb 21, 2000

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ASSEMBLY POLLS
Advantage NDA

Facing its first set of assembly elections after winning the Lok Sabha election of autumn 1999, the BJP-led NDA would seem to be sitting pretty in Bihar, Orissa and Haryana. As G.V.L. Narasimha Rao, psephologist and director, DRS, explains, the stature of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the division of the rivals helped the NDA triumph four months ago. The likelihood of this verdict repeating itself would seem to be facilitated at least in Bihar and Orissa, where the NDA has the benefit of the anti-incumbency vote. The NDA's biggest worry is not its rivals but intra-alliance dissensions and a large number of rebel candidates. The enemy within could prove more of a bother than the external foe.

BIHAR: 324 seats
Twilight of Yadav Raj
Laloo Prasad Yadav's RJD goes to polls with a distinct handicap. In the 1999 Lok Sabha election, the party had an electoral alliance with the Congress. The alliance had polled 38.7 per cent of the vote. Since then the Congress has parted ways with the RJD. But Laloo has roped in the CPI(M) and the Janata Dal (Secular).

If the RJD were to retain its 29.8 per cent Lok Sabha vote share it would be able to win a paltry 40 seats. To win the same number of seats as the ones it led in during the 1999 Lok Sabha polls, the party needs a swing of three percentage points in its favour. This will offset the divorce from the Congress

To upstage the NDA and retain power, the RJD needs a massive swing of 9.6 per cent in its favour. While this seems a tall order, the many dissident candidates who are contesting against NDA nominees could damage the anti-Laloo forces and indirectly help the RJD.

ORISSA: 147 seats
Atal's Galloping Forces
The BJP-BJD alliance swept the 1999 Lok Sabha polls in the state by winning a majority of the popular vote. The Congress, which has been ruling the state since 1995, is faced with serious dissensions in its ranks. Infighting is rampant and matters have not been helped by the fact that the party has replaced two chief minister in roughly a year.

Compared to the 1999 Lok Sabha election figures, the Congress needs a huge swing of 10 per cent of the popular vote to emerge as the single largest party. It needs a further increment of a percentage point-leading to an overall swing of 11 per cent to-once again win a majority in the state Assembly. Put simply, it's a challenge.

HARYANA: 90 seats
Sonia's Mission Imposssible
If the previous general election be an indicator the combine of the BJP and Om Prakash Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Haryana is streets ahead of its closest rival, the Congress. The BJP-INLD alliance swept the Lok Sabha polls establishing a lead in as many as 85 of the 90 assembly segments in Haryana. The numbers are so overwhelming that even a massive negative swing of 10 per cent of the popular vote will allow the BJP-INLD duo to retain power in the state.

The Congress, which was in power in Haryana till 1996, needs a swing of a whopping 12 per cent of the vote -- seen against its performance in the 1999 Lok Saha contest -- to win a majority in the state assembly.

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