Neighbours:Sri Lanka, Back on the Brink

With the LTTE knocking at the doors of Jaffna Peninsula, Kumaratunga presses the panic button, even seeking outside help to fight the Tamil rebels

In the unending ethnic blood-letting in Sri Lanka, the pendulum has swung once again, putting yet another question mark on the future of the war-ravaged island nation. Five years after government troops triumphantly drove out the diehard Tamil Tigers from the northern Jaffna peninsula, till then their bastion, it is the turn of the battle-weary troops to beat a hasty retreat in the face of the biggest offensive launched by the rebels in their over two-decade-old bloody campaign for a separate Tamil homeland.

INDIA'S DILEMMA

MILITARY INTERVENTION: An IPKF-type operation already ruled out by India on account of its bitter experience. Also there's pressure from Tamil parties supporting the Vajpayee Government.
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE: More a euphemism for helping to evacuate Sri Lankan troops if Jaffna's fall becomes imminent. The real nightmare is the logistics of moving out 35,000 troops.
UN PEACE-KEEPERS: A possibility. But the problem is India may become part of a multilateral force. Besides, it loses clout in a region vital to its interests.
COVERT SUPPORT: Secretly help Colombo by getting countries such as Israel to provide military assistance. A risky game as it is against India's policy on third party military intervention.

Columns of Tiger commandos backed by heavy artillery and armour were punching corridors through the army's defence lines located in the eastern and western axis of the A9 highway, dubbed the highway to death. The LTTE's push towards Jaffna and its savage attacks on military installations forced President Chandrika Kumaratunga to virtually declare a state of emergency.

Putting Sri Lanka on a war-footing, she announced tough measures to battle the Tamil rebels and put a complete censorship on the media under the Public Security Act which came into effect from May 3 midnight. Within hours of the announcement, Colombo was a rumour monger's paradise. People talked of water poisoning, Jaffna falling, Indian forces arriving and anything that their imagination could cook up.

The latest, and the most drastic, shift yet in the military balance comes in the wake of the fall of the strategic Elephant Pass garrison to the LTTE. Located at the neck of the peninsula, Elephant Pass is the gateway to Jaffna and was considered vital for its defence. The Tigers and their supremo Velupillai Pirabhakaran were audacious even as they were meticulous in planning and inflicting the most humiliating defeat on the government troops. It was tactics as much as firepower that forced some 17,000 troops to vacate the camp, a decision which army chief Lt-General Sirilal Weerasooriya later defended saying it was done so that they could fight another day.

The war front apart, the May 3 announcement has sent the economy reeling. Politically too the situation is not good. Just last week an ultra-nationalist party, Sinhala Urumaya, was launched. "We will work for a Sinhala nation," said Champika Ranawaka, the national convener of the party which is mobilising people at the grassroots level. The party has the backing of influential sections of the Buddhist clergy who are dead against any mediation with the LTTE. The party is likely to eat into the ruling People's Alliance (pa) vote base in the deep south when general elections, due in August, are held. Last year too Kumaratunga scraped through largely due to the sympathy votes she received after the suicide attack on her.

With major losses in the north, the Government's vote base among the Sinhalese is eroding fast. The moderates are frustrated because the peace process is stalled, and the hawks are up in arms because of the Government's inclination towards mediation. Says Suresh Premachandran, leader of the Eelam People's Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF): "If the troops are withdrawn from Jaffna, the Tigers will dictate the talks from a position of strength. Jaffna's fall will signal the end of Kumaratunga's political career."

After the debacle at Elephant Pass, General Weerasooriya had dismissed growing concerns about the security of Jaffna peninsula. "We have to ensure that the LTTE is not able to get to Jaffna now." But such rhetoric hardly inspired confidence even in the Government, which hit the panic-button. Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, who has been convalescing in Delhi after an operation, called on Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to reportedly seek Indian assistance in Lanka's hour of crisis.

Neither side would specify the type of assistance sought and, though both Indian and Sri Lankan officials deny it, Colombo is understood to have requested Delhi to help evacuate thousands of troops from the peninsula. But the Vajpayee Government is under pressure from its Tamil Nadu allies -- some of them openly support the Eelam cause -- to not entertain Sri Lanka's request. "There is no question of sending or selling arms," Vajpayee said after a meeting with them.

What is of significance, however, is the restoration of diplomatic ties between Sri Lanka and Israel. If India gives a tacit approval to an Israeli arms or military assistance, it would be playing a risky game in terms of its policy of not allowing third-party military intervention .

Even if the other camps in the Jaffna peninsula are forced to vacate, it is unlikely that the Government would pull out from the Palaly military base, the main garrison in the region that also includes an air force base, and Kankesanthurai (KKS) port. Both are located a few kilometres apart on the northern coast of the peninsula. Even when the LTTE ruled the peninsula between 1990 and 1995 after the withdrawal of the Indian Peace-Keeping Force (IPKF), the Government had held on to these bases. But following the fall of Elephant Pass, which was thought to be impregnable, there are increasing doubts whether the troops would be able to hold on to Palaly and KKS. As the Tigers steadily advance and Palaly and KKS come within striking distance of their long-range artillery, such fears are bound to increase.

It is not only the Sri Lankan Government, the security forces and Sinhalese who are worried about the Tigers' advance. Some four lakh Tamils inhabiting the peninsula are equally worried. These people had vacated their homes and migrated to Vanni on the orders of the LTTE when the security forces took control of the peninsula. But to the irritation of the Tiger leadership, most returned to their homes as the living conditions in the peninsula improved and life in areas under LTTE control in Vanni became more and more miserable.

The return of the Tigers to Jaffna could mean for the people a return to the pre-1995 days. More frightening is the Tigers' penchant for revenge against those who "collaborated" with the security forces or acted as their "informants". Rather than suffer again, or end up hanging from a lamp-post, a popular Tiger method of execution of "traitors", many may decide to pack up and leave. That could well trigger another wave of refugee influx into Tamil Nadu, a prospect neither the Indian nor the Tamil Nadu Government cherishes.

But at the moment, the potential refugee problem would be the least of Delhi's worries. Kadirgamar's request has put Delhi truly in a quandary. It is not as if it doesn't want to help when the neighbour's house is on fire. But its last attempt had left a bad taste in the mouth. Two years after the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord was signed in July 1987 by then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi and president J.R. Jayawardene, newly elected President Ranasinghe Premadasa made common cause with the LTTE and unceremoniously asked the Indian government to withdraw its troops from the island. By then, the IPKF had lost nearly 1,500 soldiers.

After the IPKF was de-inducted in March 1990, India washed its hands of Sri Lanka. Few in India would support deployment of Indian troops in the island even if Colombo were to ask for it. "Give tea and sympathy," said former foreign secretary A.P. Venkateswaran when asked what should be India's response to such a request from Colombo.

India will have to weigh the pros and cons of any action it takes, even providing humanitarian assistance or assistance in evacuating troops from Jaffna. Not responding to Colombo's desperate plea may force it to look elsewhere for help, and India would not like military intervention by a third party in its backyard. But responding to the Sri Lankan Government's request could stir a hornet's nest in Tamil Nadu, where some political parties who are members of Vajpayee's coalition Government are also ardent supporters of the LTTE.

The LTTE offensive has also made the prospects of the fledgling peace process brokered by the Norwegians uncertain. With her "war for peace" campaign ending in ignominy, Kumaratunga has said she would talk to the LTTE after arriving at a consensus with the southern parties on her new draft Constitution that seeks to grant more autonomy to the Tamils in a bid to end the conflict. But whether the LTTE would be keen to talk to the Government at this stage when it is on the rampage is to be seen.

As Mangala Moonesinghe, the Sri Lankan high commissioner to India, says, "No doubt we are in a slippery downslide. But Jaffna has changed hands so many times, even if it falls the LTTE can't claim Eelam." Truly, if Jaffna does fall into the hands of the Tigers, the battle may be over but the war for Eelam will not be won.

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	May 15, 2000