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The Shiv Sena Chief finds himself buffeted between the internal politics of the Congress-NCP ruling coalition and the BJP's determination to no longer play second fiddle. His future lies in fighting his way out.

By V. Shankar Aiyar

Last Wednesday, it seemed Mumbai was leaving town. Bumper-to-bumper traffic at 4 p.m. It wasn't peak hour but people were emptying out of Nariman Point and Fort. Airline offices were jammed with travellers trying to get out of the city. Suburban trains were packed with panic-stricken commuters. The BSE Sensex plunged by over 110 points but the rumour index was at its peak. "Thackeray has been arrested; there has been a firing near Vakola, stoning at Masjid Bunder; Kala Nagar has been cordoned off by Shiv Sainiks."

With memories of the 1992-93 post-Ayodhya riots still fresh, Mumbai knew the worth of not taking chances. Nor was the panic confined to ordinary people. In suburban Dadar, at the fortified Sena Bhavan, party notables gathered with long faces. They had reason to be tense, even stricken. That morning, the Government withdrew the security cover of nearly 200 shakha and vibhag pramukhs, sending half of them scurrying underground for cover. Heir-apparents Uddhav and Raj Thackeray worked frenetically to marshal the troops before leaving for the Tiger's den: Matoshri at Kala Nagar in Bandra. Here, supremo Bal Thackeray kept alive a facade of nonchalance. When Miss World Lara Dutta made an obligatory call in the afternoon, he smiled for the cameras. But his mind was elsewhere. He was troubled. Just as he had been since Saturday, July 15.

That was the day the Congress-NCP controlled Democratic Front Government gave Mumbai Police the sanction to prosecute Thackeray under Section 153 A of the IPC, for inciting communal passions seven years ago, an offence that carries a punishment of between one and three years in prison. For the first time in two decades a state government found the courage to take on Thackeray in a headlong confrontation.

The audacious act was not without a touch of irony. On the eve of Guru Poornima it was the renegade sainik, state Deputy Chief Minister and Home Minister Chhagan Bhujbal who took the unprecedented step of confronting his former mentor. On the face of it, Thackeray appeared unfazed. "My only condition is that I must be given a cell with an Indian toilet. I will not accept a cell with a western commode (see interview)," he said. Nephew Raj Thackeray used cricketing analogy to weave a counter: "We have just been bowled a full toss. Now just watch us hit it for a six like Javed Miandad did." Brave words that glossed over the fury in the ranks. "India will burn," Thackeray warned. "I am not threatening but warning. The NDA Government had better be aware. This is not a virus that will be restricted to Mumbai and Maharashtra. It will spread through the country."

The bluster was accompanied by a flexing of muscles. After giving Suresh Prabhu a total dressing down for not getting the Union Government to act, Thackeray simply instructed his three ministers to put in their papers. They obliged on Wednesday and Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee further obliged by keeping the resignations in abeyance.

The Sena's relations with its ally and coalition partner has not been exemplary. For nine months, Thackeray has been fulminating against the duplicity of the BJP in not cooperating in the formation of a government in Mumbai when there was a chance. Citing former deputy chief minister Gopinath Munde's personal ambitions, Thackeray blamed the BJP high command for its inability to rein in its satraps. This summer, the rift widened when the Sena and the BJP failed to arrive at an agreement to fight municipal polls jointly. Munde's tirade against the Sena at Aurangabad where he suggested "the immersion of the Sena" made matters worse. Uddhav and Raj rushed to meet Advani in Delhi. A kind of patch-up was arranged by the architect of the alliance and Munde's brother-in-law Pramod Mahajan at a midnight rendezvous in June.

But the truce was fragile. Whereas Thackeray's priority was to topple the Vilasrao Deshmukh Government in the state, the BJP prepared for the long haul. It announced its Maharashtra strategy as one of shath pratishath (100 per cent). A calculation that leaves no space for its long-time Shiv Sena ally. 

The strains on the ground were mirrored in Delhi. Union Heavy Industries Minister Manohar Joshi -- clearly at Thackeray's behest -- tried to systematically block every move by the prime minister to speed up reforms in the public sector. In fact, Joshi has been among the most vociferous opponents of the Government's disinvestment initiatives. Given the Sena's otherwise pro-business credentials, the blockade was irrational. But Thackeray wanted himself and the Sena to be taken seriously. He told Vajpayee this at their July 9 meeting in Mumbai. "My ministers have got portfolios without any power. Joshi has heavy industries but disinvestment which was under him has been given to a junior minister. Vikhe Patil has to report to Yashwant Sinha. Why can't he have independent charge?" The prime minister didn't respond.

Vajpayee had reason to be non-committal. The BJP is consciously keeping its two avatars -- the government at the Centre and the alliance in the state -- distinct. In public, Munde launched a virtual tirade against the Deshmukh regime in the House calling the action against Thackeray illogical, illegal and dangerous. But privately, last Wednesday night, he went to Matoshri and explained to Thackeray that there is little the Centre can do as law and order is a state subject.

It's not that the BJP isn't responsive to Thackeray's plight. At his meeting with Maharashtra's Minister of State for Home Kripashankar Singh, Advani pleaded for non-action, a theme also taken up at the political level by Central ministers such as Ram Naik and Arun Jaitley. Vajpayee and Advani have also initiated a back-channel dialogue with the NCP to temper Bhujbal's belligerence. However, at the level of the government, Advani conceded that the Centre was mindful of its obligations in case there was a law and order problem. His view may have been influenced by the Governor's report alerting the Centre of a serious law and order problem.

Both the BJP and moderate elements in the Sena are banking on a legal route to avert confrontation. With some of the top legal brains including Union Law Minister Ram Jethmalani, Adhik Shirodkar, Rajendra Shirodkar, Mahesh Jethmalani and Satish Maneshinde advising Thackeray, the defence argument is that the case is time-barred. The offending editorials in Saamna were written in January 1993 and the fir was registered on July 7, 1993. Given that the maximum penalty is a three-year prison term, the charge-sheet should have been filed within three years. Although the Congress was in power between 1993 and March 1995, it failed to file the charge-sheet. Now the case could invite provisions of limitation.

The second plea is that Thackeray's arrest is unwarranted. Says Shirodkar: "You can prosecute him by filing a charge-sheet. The sanction is for prosecution, not arrest. It is not legally tenable." He cites a 1988 case where the Bombay High Court quashed a similar proceeding under 153 A against Bohra community chief Syedna as it would vitiate the atmosphere unnecessarily.

The Government is not without its arguments. According to it, the delay was exceptional. The fir was filed in 1993 and investigations were carried out. But before any prosecution could be sanctioned, the government changed in 1995. Thereafter till October 1999, the Sena was in power and it could hardly be expected to approve Thackeray's prosecution. Once the Deshmukh Government assumed charge in October 1999, the papers were rapidly processed. It will request the court to recognise the circumstances of the delay. It will also argue that the earlier Sena-BJP government dropped nearly 11,000 cases, including 22 against Thackeray.

If the court agrees, Thackeray will face the biggest challenge of his career. He has not been touched since his arrest in 1969 when Mumbai burnt for 10 days. Successive governments have threatened to prosecute him for his rabid utterances and actions but desisted for fear of Sena retribution. Indeed, even after the 1992-93 riots, neither the Congress government in the state nor at the Centre (notwithstanding threats by S.B. Chavan and Rajesh Pilot to arrest him under TADA) pursued any action against Thackeray.

The Sena chief is aware of his vulnerability. He cannot push the Centre beyond a point. Even the extreme step of withdrawing support to the NDA is unlikely to affect the Government's majority. The Sena's clout stems largely from the illusion of Thackeray's invincibility. Even a token arrest will constitute a personal humiliation and erode his public standing. Already Thackeray realises that though the Sena was in power for a full term, it could not expand its base significantly. Despite the split in Congress votes, its share of seats fell from 75 in 1995 to 70 in 1999. Even in Mumbai, its stronghold, its tally fell from 21 assembly seats to 16. Any personal setback for Thackeray will further diminish the Sena's standing. No wonder Thackeray wants to get his way.

So does the shaky NCP-Congress alliance, particularly the pugnacious Bhujbal who nurtures ambitions of emerging as Maharashtra's Mulayam Singh Yadav. As a backward caste Mali, he aspires to forge an obc-Dalit-Muslim bloc. Defanging Thackeray will be a big feather in his cap.

For Bhujbal, the Sena-BJP demand in the previous assembly session for the prosecution of Abu Asim Azmi, the Samajwadi Party's Mumbai chief, following the CBI's confirmation of tapes of his speeches, came in handy. He waited till Deshmukh went on a tour of the US and called for the papers relating to Thackeray's prosecution. Last Saturday, when the chief minister returned from Ghatkopar after Congress President Sonia Gandhi's visit, he was presented by Bhujbal with a fait accompli.

Not that Bhujbal was an unguided missile. His move, it now emerges, was part of a plan formulated with Sharad Pawar at an NCP chintan shivir (introspection camp) held a fortnight ago at Raigad. The NCP legislators decided there was little point in continuing with the Government beyond December. Says party leader Praful Patel: "We and the Congress aren't natural allies." But if they were to face elections again in the new year, they would have to cull the support of the backward classes and the minorities. Bhujbal was set up for this task and he played the master stroke.

As a police officer, using a cricketing metaphor, put it, "For nine months Bhujbal has been batting. Deshmukh has watched from the non-striker's end. Now suddenly, Bhujbal has played the ball to cover and called for a cheeky run. Deshmukh has no option but to get to the other side or get run out." If the chief minister wants to be on the right side of his high command, he will have to accept Bhujbal's call.

Deshmukh's tenure at the helm hasn't been untroubled. Since this summer when Sonia appointed Govindrao Adik as the PCC chief, Deshmukh has been challenged repeatedly, first on his proximity to Pawar and more importantly to prove his secular credentials.

By endorsing Thackeray's prosecution, he has established the latter. But his real test will lie in carrying out the operation successfully. The Sena's capacity for fomenting trouble is largely intact. With a base that blends the Marathi-speaking lower middle class and Mumbai's teeming under class, the Sena's strength lies in its rough and ready methods. For the street-fighters, Thackeray is nothing less than a divine incarnate with an ability to channel popular frustrations into muscle power. The Sena's reputation for terror is real.

That danger has been repeatedly parroted to Deshmukh by several leaders. Thackeray has used his contacts within the Congress to reach Deshmukh (who he considers a gentleman, a khandaani manoos). The emissaries include Chavan and A.R. Antulay. A person close to Chavan apparently advised Deshmukh not to get involved in the arrest drama because it would arouse a sleeping and presently ineffective tiger. The other contention is that Deshmukh has nothing to gain and stands to lose either way. If the arrest succeeds, the credit will be taken by Bhujbal. If it boomerangs the blame will fall on Deshmukh.

True, there are great risks but Deshmukh has also sensed an ally in competitor Bhujbal. The former Sainik -- who helped build the Sena through his 25-year association -- knows the Sena better than most of the party, a factor that contributes to the fear among the Sainiks. Bhujbal has also been working closely with the police on a game plan. The first two phases of the operation have been revealed: the first was to create the fear psychosis in the Thackeray household and the second was to induce panic among 200 senior Sainiks by reducing their security cover. The strategy is to scare the Sainiks (six of them have been attacked in the past year by the underworld). And it has worked. On Wednesday, Sena MLA Dagdu Sakpal virtually wept in the House as his security cover was reduced. "I doubt if I will survive more than 48 hours." He is on the hit list of underworld don Arun Gawli.

It is not just fear the Government is banking on. The police have a plan centred on preventive arrests of trouble makers, imposition of curfew and confidence-building measures among Dalits and minorities. By withdrawing policemen from non-essential security, the police commissioner has freed over 1,200 personnel for essential law and order duty. Bhujbal is understood to have also sounded out Congress-ruled Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh for assistance. A 1,000-strong Rapid Action Force is camping at Wankhede Stadium awaiting action.

Yet, nothing succeeds like success and there is speculation over the delay in arresting Thackeray. As of last Thursday evening, the Government had not issued the sanction letter. Police Commissioner M.N. Singh said, "We have not yet received the letter. When it arrives we will process it." The Government, it seems, is in no hurry.

For the first time in many years, Thackeray is being made to sweat. Perhaps till Tuesday's Legislative Council elections, following which the Government may simply file the chargesheet and allow the law to take its course. Which means that the case would inch its way from metropolitan court to sessions court to high court and, who knows, the Supreme Court. A process that could take as long as 15 years. Enough time for Thackeray to keep on boasting about his invincibility.

-with Lakshmi Iyer

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