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A good Kashmir policy won't be of use minus a Pakistan policy

By Swapan Dasgupta

The lok sabha being the body that epitomises the collective will of the people, it is revealing that the loudest applause during last Wednesday's discussion on Kashmir was reserved for the Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav. In the course of his belligerent intervention, Yadav advocated a policy of hot pursuit to destroy terrorist camps across the border. Given the complexities of international relations, such a proactive counter-insurgency policy may be a little impossible, if not hazardous, to put into practice. Yet, it is important that the Government acknowledges the deep disquiet in the country at its inability to either stop the killings or advance the peace process in the Valley.

Not that pandering to populism is necessarily the most desirable policy option. Regardless of the well-directed taunts aimed at the BJP for its bellicose stand during the 1993 Hazratbal siege, the Government has so far refused to be provoked by its critics at home and abroad. Despite the failure of the talks with the Hizbul Mujahideen, it has kept open the door for future dialogue. The prime minister has unambiguously spelt out the Government's commitment to work for a solution within the Constitution, without at the same time setting preconditions for talking. The Government hopes that with perseverance and quiet diplomacy, this policy of "firmness and flexibility" will have a positive effect in the violence-weary Valley. After all, the Hizbul was responding to a combination of military setbacks and grassroots opinion when it offered a cease-fire on July 24. The insistence on Pakistan's participation in the talks was a motivated afterthought that originated from Islamabad.

On paper, the Kashmir policy that has emerged in the past fortnight sounds restrained and responsible. However, its success depends on one enormous imponderable -- Pakistan. There is not even the slightest indication so far that Pakistan would ever acquiesce in a political settlement that leaves its jehadi agenda out in the cold. It has taken steps to ensure that the balance of terror shifts in favour of groups like the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad which are basically replicas of the Taliban in Afghanistan. It wasn't, after all, a mere coincidence that of the militant groups in the Valley, the Hizbul was most devastated by the Indian security operations in the past six months. Islamabad ensured it happened that way.

Exploiting the Kashmiri-mercenary divide in the militant outfits and alerting the world to the dangers of a Talibanisation of the region are key elements of a future Kashmir policy. But let's not be under any illusion that these will make any immediate difference to the situation on the ground. There are important players in Washington's complex foreign policy establishment who relish the idea of a fragile India bogged down in internal strife. It's their presence in both the Clinton Administration and Capitol Hill that explain India's wariness over using Washington's so-called good offices. Things may change but we shouldn't bank on it.

Which basically means that any enduring solution to the Kashmir problem cannot be viewed in isolation. It has to be governed by a larger India-centric strategic doctrine. Central to it must be the thesis that the existence of Pakistan as a single entity is inimical to the larger good of the Indian people. That's the incontrovertible lesson after Lahore and Kargil. India must do to Pakistan what it wants to do to us.

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