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DIPLOMACY,
INDO-JAPANESE RELATIONS
It's
How You Say It That Counts
The
past has perhaps been the darkest hour and a new dawn is imminent. For
though Mori's visit will not see the signing of any major agreement or
even result in a vision statement, it does signify a subtle but significant
shift in the way Japan is now looking at India. "This is Japan's
way of mollifying India for treating it so roughly after the Pokhran tests,"
observes K.V. Kesavan, professor of Japanese studies at Delhi's Jawaharlal
Nehru University. "It is an attempt to bring a semblance of normalcy
in our relations," he adds.
In diplomacy,
the way things are said is as important as what is being said. So though
Japan continues to insist that India sign the CTBT, in the past few months
it has also said it appreciates the A.B. Vajpayee Government's efforts
to build a consensus among political parties on the subject. More significantly,
as a senior Japanese diplomat puts it, "We have decided that our
relations should not be hostage to a single issue. And though we may differ
on the nuclear proliferation question, we believe we should move ahead
rapidly on other fronts that could strengthen our ties." Japan is
also quick to point out that while the "economic measures" continue
to be in place, it does not mean that unlike the US sanctions, individual
Japanese companies cannot do business with its Indian counterparts or
that it is discouraging international financial institutions from lending
to India. With Mori becoming the first Japanese prime minister in 10 years
to set foot in India it is truly kiss-and-make-up time.
Why the
change of heart? The most obvious reason is that because big brother US
has been mending fences with India, Japan as its ally is following suit.
Says Jasjit Singh, director, Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses,
who has also been part of a high-level Indo-Japanese strategic dialogue:
"The warming of Indo-US relations has certainly brought about a major
thaw in the Japanese attitude." He also points out that like Australia,
Japan realises it overstated its concern after the tests and now wants
to bring back relations on an even keel. As important is the realisation
that cutting off aid has not had the expected disastrous impact on India.
A senior Ministry of External Affairs official says that as foreign assistance
has been a major instrument of Japan's economic diplomacy-it was defanged
militarily after World War II-there is a major rethink on the effectiveness
of such a carrot-and-stick aid policy.
During
this trip, Mori will visit Bangladesh and Pakistan before coming to India.
Japanese diplomats are quick to point out that the prime minister will
spend only a working morning in Pakistan and that he is certain to raise
the issues of restoring democracy, curbing terrorism and signing the CTBT
with General Pervez Musharraf.
In India,
Bangalore will be Mori's first stop, which is symbolic of the new direction
that Japan wants to give to its economic relations with the country. Amit
Mitra, secretary-general, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and
Industry (FICCI), says, "Japan is keen on opening fresh doors, and
the knowledge industry is an area where it sees major potential."
N.R. Narayana Murthy, chairman of Infosys, the software giant that Mori
will visit, adds: "For Indian information technology companies, Japan
is a growing market that holds a lot of promise."
However,
with Japan's economy yet to come out of severe recession and political
uncertainty continuing to dog Mori, too much enthusiasm over the visit
may be misplaced. Japan does have a reputation for moving ponderously
both on investment decisions and its relations with other countries. The
good sign, however, is that it is moving in the right direction for India.
As Mitra puts it, "It's better late than never."
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