An indecisive verdict in the parliamentary polls spells more trouble for the already beleaguered President Kumaratunga

By Christine Jayasinghe in Colombo

STALEMATE

As Sri Lanka emerges from a parliamentary poll overshadowed by violence and rigging, it is evident from the close finish between the protagonists that voters have added political instability to the nation's list of woes. The People's Alliance (PA) led by President Chandrika Kumaratunga emerged the single largest party in Tuesday's poll with 107 seats, six short of a simple majority in the 225-strong Parliament. Initial tallies showed the PA sweeping out its main rival, the United National Party (UNP), in rural constituencies. The UNP headed by former prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe won 89 seats. Voters, as pre-poll opinion surveys suggested, clearly found it difficult to choose overwhelmingly in favour of either the PA's vow to wage an all-out war against the Tamil Tigers or the UNP's message of a de-escalation of hostilities and putting the economy back on an even keel.

Kumaratunga's own position as president, a post she was re-elected to recently though with a reduced popular vote, remains unchanged despite the lack of a decisive verdict. But she needs parliamentary support to push through legislation required to govern her troubled country. A patchwork government with smaller parties whose loyalties Kumaratunga can no longer rely on could be the price the PA has to pay to stay in power. Kumaratunga is no stranger to such a scenario, having wooed parties like the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), the Indian Tamil-dominated Ceylon Workers Congress and the former Tamil militant group, the Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP), to help swell the PA's 105-seat haul in the 1994 general elections. Though nominally holding a one-seat majority, the PA enjoyed the support of other political parties, including the mainstream Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF).

This time round though, things may not be that rosy. A key ally, the National Unity Alliance (NUA), a front organisation of the SLMC, the country's main Muslim party, emerged as a potential king-maker with 10 seats. Soon after the verdict, NUA leader Rauff Hakeem said his party had not taken "a final decision" on where it would peg its support, indicating that he would drive a hard bargain to extract cabinet portfolios for NUA members. Nor is Kumaratunga assured support from moderate Tamil parties like the TULF which won five seats. "This time, we will not touch the government with a barge pole. We have been very shabbily treated and stabbed in the back," said TULF's Senior Vice-President V. Anandasangari. The party is irked because the ruling party openly backed the other Tamil group, EPDP, in its campaign in the northern Jaffna peninsula where the PA did not participate.

The PA can also rule out help from the radical leftwing party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which finished a distant, but significant, third. The party, whose performance at the polls surpassed most people's expectations, has bagged 10 seats, two of them from Colombo district indicating a growing popularity outside its southern province stronghold. The JVP, which led two abortive insurrections in the 1970s and 1980s that cost an estimated 80,000 lives, has said it will not club itself with either of the main parties but will use its parliamentary strength to make or break a government. "We are asking that we be given a chance to ensure that the two parties which ruled this country for the past 52 years will not be able to do as they please any longer," said JVP General Secretary Tilvin Silva before the elections.

War Will Shatter Optimism: A tenuous majority in Parliament will mean that the government could be hamstrung in getting important legislation through, as happened when Kumaratunga was forced to withdraw her controversial peace plan in August for lack of votes. The peace plan offered Tamils control of a semi-autonomous interim administration in the north-eastern province where the LTTE is waging a bloody battle to carve out a separate state for the island's 2.5 million ethnic Tamils. The plan, which would have turned the country into a quasi-federation, also stipulated the holding of a referendum at the end of 10 years to decide if people in the Tamil-dominated north and the multi-ethnic eastern regions wanted the provinces to remain united. Some of the Tamil moderates backed her initiative but there was stiff resistance from the Buddhist clergy and the LTTE. Last week, Kumaratunga virtually washed her hands of appeasing the LTTE when she vowed a "no-holds barred" war against the militant group. However, she also dangled the prospect of reintroducing the peace package in the new Parliament.

With Prime Minister Ratnasari Wikramanayake of the PA likely to retain his post, his government will also have to give top priority to reviving the economy. As Sri Lankans tightened their belts in the wake of sharp increases in gas, electricity and communication charges this summer, economists warned that rising prices could wipe out hopes of an economic recovery for the war-weary island. Sri Lanka's business community has urged Kumaratunga to form a "national coalition government" in the interests of stability. "What is best for the country is for the PA and the UNP to come together, now that the elections are over," says Ken Balendra, chairman of the blue-chip John Keells conglomerate. The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce was quick to echo the call, saying "a national government is the way forward for economic development".

But the continuing war in the north could shatter this optimism. With government troops set to face the LTTE in a long drawn-out battle in the northern Jaffna peninsula, conservative estimates peg this year's inflation rate at about 8 per cent, compared to last year's official figure of 4.7 per cent. Economists believe that it will be a formidable challenge for the Government to achieve the 5.5 per cent GDP growth target set by the Central Bank for 2000, up from the modest 4.3 per cent growth recorded in 1999. They blame the ballooning defence budget which increases the government's draw on domestic borrowings and drives up interest rates.

The Tigers made their presence felt during the poll campaign by deploying deadly suicide bombers to assassinate two PA candidates and attempting to murder another. Says Stanley Kalpage, former Sri Lankan high commissioner to India: "The LTTE has repeatedly shown that it will settle for nothing short of Eelam. It has spurned every attempt made to bring it to the negotiating table." Ultimately, it seems the LTTE will decide where the chips fall for Sri Lanka.

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