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DIPLOMACY:
US ELECTIONS
Who
Will Be Good For India?
It's
a cliff-hanger but India will be happier with a kinder, gentler Bush than
a tough Gore.
By Raj
Chengappa with Harinder Baweja in
Washington DC
To
borrow a word from presidential candidate George W. Bush's limited vocabulary,
it has turned out to be the fuzziest elections ever. After 100 million
American voters stamped their ballot papers on November 7, the margin
of votes separating the Texas governor and Vice-President Al Gore for
the topmost job in the world was barely 300 in the key state of Florida
after a recount. Who the next President of America would be now depends
on the 3,000-odd votes posted by US armed forces personnel on missions
in places like Kosovo. Their votes are expected to come in latest by November
17.
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| The
media only added to the confusion |
Even then,
America seems headed for its worst constitutional crisis that could see
results postponed till early January. As outgoing President Bill Clinton
wryly observed, "The American people have spoken. But we may have
to wait awhile to determine what they said." Much of the chaos is
because of the existing electoral system. Although a presidential candidate
seeks popular votes, it is an electoral college with representatives from
each of the 50 states that technically elects him. A state's number of
electors equals the number it sends to the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Florida, for instance, contributes 25 electors. The candidate who wins
the popular vote within a state receives all the state's electoral vote
even if the margin of victory is less than a couple of hundred, as could
happen in the sunshine state. To be voted President, a candidate needs
to win more than 270 of the total 538 electors in the college.
So Far
So Good: But in a tight race, the complications begin. In more than
half the states it is only convention and not law that binds an elector
to vote for the candidate that got him there in the first place. Which
means that when the electoral college meets on December 18, even if Bush
wins Florida and reaches the magical figure of 271, he will not be voted
as President if one elector defects. The battle then goes to the House
of Representatives which will meet on January 6, 2001, and vote for a
new President from among the top three candidates in the race.
By the end
of the bizarre week, even the world seemed to be on hold. Senior Indian
policymakers flew into Washington DC during election week to touch base
mainly with Bush's Republican team on a range of issues. But they had
to wait till the outcome of the results. If the Democrats come back, India
can expect Gore to continue Clinton's policy of building a long-term relationship.
As Clinton told Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on his visit to Washington
in September: "I want to leave this relationship in the best possible
shape for my successor so that he can pick up the ball and run with it."
The prime
minister did establish a good rapport with Gore who even hosted a lunch
for him, taking time off from his busy campaign schedule. India is rattled
though about Gore making the ratification of the CTBT and non-proliferation
a priority issue. Stephen Cohen, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,
says, "Gore can be expected to be tougher on proliferation, and perhaps
continue the punitive sanctions policy towards India and Pakistan."
But he may be stymied in his efforts to get the US Congress to ratify
the CTBT with Republicans gaining a slender majority in both the Houses.
Also, Gore's policy of so-called "forward engagement"-which
is addressing major issues early and with the force of American power
behind it-does make Indian policy planners wary of him. And his secretary
of state and Madeleine Albright's successor is likely to be Richard Holbrooke,
the UN ambassador and Bosnia peacebroker, considered a tough negotiator.
India may
be happier if the initial count is proved right and Bush emerges the winner.
The 54-year-old Texas governor has made some of his worst gaffes in foreign
policy including calling the Greeks "Grecians". But since then
he has made amends. He is likely to appoint the Gulf War hero Colin Powell
as his secretary of state and his foreign policy tutor Condoleeza Rice
as national security adviser. He has made it clear that he is not interested
in getting the CTBT ratified which he says "is not verifiable or
enforceable".
The Republicans
are also likely to play up relations with Japan and get away from the
Democrats' obsession with China. The distancing from China may be good
for India. Ambassador Richard Armitage, Bush's senior foreign policy and
defence adviser, while describing the key elements of the Republican foreign
policy, said: "It involves the management of the rise of the two
great powers-China and India." India is hoping that Bush will lift
the economic sanctions imposed by the US after the 1998 tests. But he
would want an improvement in Indo-Pakistan relations as a pre-condition.
Yet, the
recent reality that has emerged in Indo-US relations may make it impervious
to the vagaries of a change of presidency. Apart from summit meetings,
high-level working groups such as those on terrorism and non-proliferation
have institutionalised the dialogue process. Richard Celeste, US ambassador
to India, told India Today: "We are on the threshold of a mature,
long-term relationship. The impact of the elections will be minimal."
Like the rest of the world, India waits in exasperation to find out who
to do business with after Clinton.
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