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NEIGHBOURS:
PAKISTAN
What
About the Violence?
There
are various indicators with which these can be gauged. Infiltration figures
drop sharply in winter but as a Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) official
explains, India will be closely watching the military temperature along
the loc and the violence graph in the state. If shelling on the line is
an indicator, the week following the cease-fire brought relief. There
is relative calm along the loc and the international border where guns
boomed on a daily basis. Mortar fire has stopped since November 28. Earlier
300 to 500 rounds were a matter of routine. Small arms fire, similarly,
is down, according to a senior army officer, from 20,000 rounds to a negligible
30 per day.
The number
of violent incidents too shows a decline for the moment despite the fidayeen
attack on a CRPF camp and some bomb blasts. Again, a big change from July
when foreign-dominated militants stepped up violence and killed 100 people
in one day in response to the Hizb cease-fire. What will have to be keenly
watched are the activities of groups like the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and
Lashkar-e-Toiba. While they were quick to oppose the announcement of the
Ramzan cease-fire, they have been maintaining a curious silence since
Pakistan's response. The right-wing political party, Jamait-e-Islami,
too has not reacted.
Significantly
their reaction will ultimately answer the question of the hold General
Pervez Musharraf has over fundamentalist and jehadi forces. There is a
growing concern that there is a limit to how much he can rein in these
forces and the real threat to the cease-fire comes from this lobby. Musharraf
has termed the cease-fire as "a window of opportunity'' and hopes
the Hurriyat leadership will be able to position itself as a party to
the dispute, even though India has ruled out tripartite talks. Pakistan's
offer of two parallel processes-India with the Kashmiris and Pakistan
with the Kashmiris-puts the Hurriyat on a par with the other two parties.
It gives Kashmiris the recognition they have long asked for as a central
party to the dispute.
India is
not averse to allowing a Hurriyat delegation to go to Islamabad. As an
MEA official pointed out, "Abdul Ghani Lone is already there and
though he went for his son's wedding, he has also interacted with a wide
spectrum of people and had a meeting with Musharraf." Other Hurriyat
leaders will also be covering the distance between Srinagar and Islamabad
but it's the period of Ramzan that is crucial for a lot will depend on
what transpires on the ground.
India, which
for over a decade has looked at Kashmir as a law and order problem, has
also changed its approach. The change in mindset can be attributed to
two main reasons. The mood swing for peace in the Valley which was more
than apparent earlier this year when the Hizb offer held out hope for
peace. It is precisely for the same reason that the Hurriyat too is more
amenable to talks. It senses the yearning for peace and the rejection
of violence by the masses. The second reason for the shift in policy are
the inputs coming in from the army which has been reiterating that insurgency
in Kashmir is a political issue and thus has to be handled politically.
The international community too has been urging India to play elder brother
and resume a dialogue with Pakistan. The US, while appreciative of India's
stand that ground realities have to be favourable, is still for re-engagement.
The Vajpayee
Government reinitiated steps towards opening a door to the militants despite
the abrupt manner in which the cease-fire was called off by Pakistan-based
Hizb chief Syed Salahuddin. Some homework was done before the offer was
made. Salahuddin had reiterated that it was for India this time round
to declare a cease-fire. He had also clarified doubts on the cease-fire
coming unstuck due to an insistence on a tripartite process saying, "Let
India and Pakistan start and involve the Kashmiris later. Let Delhi and
the Kashmiris start, how does it matter?" Drawing comfort from that
India went ahead with its cease-fire announcement and dropped one of its
earlier positions that it couldn't talk to a military head of state, especially
one it had always called the "architect of Kargil." Reasoning:
it had nothing to lose and couldn't forever keep the door shut on Musharraf.
There have
been subtle shifts then from all sides. India offering to extend the cease-fire,
Pakistan reciprocating by offering maximum restraint and the Hizb and
Hurriyat holding out hope. Says Hurriyat Chairman Professor Abdul Ghani
Bhat: "We should pursue peace seriously and sincerely.'' This could
well see the resumption of foreign secretary-level talks, provided the
cease-fire period passes peacefully and Pakistan agrees to a composite
dialogue instead of holding Kashmir out as the core issue. There is no
certainty on this count but after the way in which the Lahore process
was derailed, the hope of a dialogue is itself a big step.
Pg. 1
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METRO TODAY
Ayodhya
is an issue that is pre-determined. And it matters little in the present
fuss that the foremost casualty is the truth, writes INDIA TODAY Deputy
Editor Swapan Dasgupta in 