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INDIA'S
GAMBIT
To build a meaningful political alternative by involving "Kashmiri"
militant groups in a dialogue
To win
the moral high ground by declaring cease-fire, putting Pakistan on the
backfoot. The move will also ease criticism that India is not defusing
tensions over Kashmir.
Willing
to consider the resumption of a dialogue provided the ground realities
change and Musharraf commits himself to the bilateral Lahore and Simla
agreements.
PAKISTAN'S
COMPULSIONS
Sees a
window of opportunity to end isolation. Under international pressure to
exercise restraint and rein in the jehadis.
Under
fire not only for its "bleed India" Kashmir policy but also
its support to the Taliban. Sanctions against the Taliban on the anvil
for their support to bin Laden, suspected to be behind the US Cole attack.
A renewed
focus on Kashmir is seen as an effective way to divert attention from
the economic ills plaguing the country. Pakistan also needs something
to show before it goes to the Paris Club for debt rescheduling.
INDO-PAK
RELATIONS
Troubled
Decade
Early
1990s: Tensions escalate after troops are moved to the Kashmir valley
where insurgency takes root. Foreign secretary-level talks are held to
try and restore a semblance of normalcy.
1991:
A round of talks results in the agreement on advance notification of military
exercises and prevention of airspace violation.
1993:
Insurgency in Kashmir rages but the two sides agree to sign a joint declaration
on the prohibition of chemical weapons.
1994:
Foreign secretaries meet but talks break down.
1997:
Talks resume after a gap of three years and the two sides agree on a composite
dialogue on eight issues, including Kashmir. In September, however, talks
fail once again over the setting up of a joint working group on Kashmir.
1998:
Both sides carry out nuclear tests. Nawaz Sharif describes his first interaction
with Vajpayee during the SAARC session in Colombo as a "zero meeting".
1999:
The Lahore summit raises hopes. Vajpayee's bus journey is hailed as a
peace move. But soon the conflict in Kargil leads to a deadlock. In October,
Mushrraf deposes Sharif in a coup.
1998:
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METRO TODAY
Ayodhya
is an issue that is pre-determined. And it matters little in the present
fuss that the foremost casualty is the truth, writes INDIA TODAY Deputy
Editor Swapan Dasgupta in 
