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DEFENCE:
WESTERN COAST
STATE
OF UNEASE
Unmindful
of its proximity to Pakistan, ports and oil refineries have mushroomed
on the Gujarat coast, forcing new worries on an overstretched navy
By Sandeep
Unnithan
A
squadron of Pakistani F-16 fighter-bombers take off from Masroor airbase
near Karachi and head south into the Arabian Sea. Swinging south-east
towards Gujarat, they streak in low at wave-top level. Undetected by radars,
they cross the coast, dropping their deadly payload. The oil refineries
in the Kutch region become blazing infernos, the Salaya-Mathura pipeline
which transports oil to the Mathura refinery is blown up and the tankers
and merchant vessels at the ports are completely destroyed. With its oil
supply cut off, the whole of northern India comes to a grinding halt ...
 |
| The
Sindhurashtra's cruise missiles can strike Karachi from a distance
of 300 km |
Scary scenario,
even if it is a hypothetical one. But the armed forces fear that their
worst nightmare is just waiting to come true. With potential targets like
huge oil refineries and the Kandla port, the 120 km-long Gulf of Kutch
in Gujarat is being called the country’s gunpowder keg. “The
state now tops our threat perception on the west coast,’’ says
a top naval official.
And for good
reason. Nearly a fourth of the country’s oil imports pass through
this gulf, which is close to Essar’s 11 million-tonne plant and Reliance’s
50 million-tonne refinery at Jamnagar. Over 1,000 vessels are handled
every year at the ports of Okha, Vadinar, Rozi, Mundra and Kandla—the
only port in the country that can deal with supertankers displacing over
one lakh tonnes. So if Pakistan does a Pearl Harbour on India, it can
cripple the Indian economy in one fell swoop.
The armed
forces are livid that such vital strategic assets, particularly the two
titanic petrochemical complexes were set up here. “After all, the
final responsibility for defending these assets lies with us,” says
a senior naval official. “The strategic importance of this region
should have been considered before making such huge investments.”
During the
1971 Indo-Pakistan war, Indian naval missile boats conducted two daring
hit-and-run attacks on Karachi port, sinking Pakistani warships and setting
ablaze oil farms. But the armed forces fear that the tables could easily
turn in a future conflict. “We’re playing a high risk game,”
warns a senior naval official.
So it was
with a certain wariness that the armed forces lived out every worst case
scenario during the DGX-2000—a 10-day war exercise for the defence
of Gujarat—in the Arabian Sea in November. The exercise was jointly
conducted by the navy, air force and Coast Guard. One of the scenarios
practised was defending the state’s coastline against hit-and-run
attacks by the Chinese-built Huangfeng class missile boats that form part
of Pakistan’s naval arsenal.
Over 40 warships,
including submarines, and fighter aircraft participated in the war exercises.
The navy’s Tu-142 long-range patrol aircraft simulated Pakistani
Orions and Atlantiques, while iaf migs stood in for Pakistani Mirages
and F-16s. Warships and fighter aircraft practised offensive manoeuvres
against a blizzard of low-flying aircraft and missiles. Missile boats
staged mock attacks on installations and marine commandos simulated saboteurs
infiltrating the coast. Ships of the Coast Guard, tasked with damage control,
rehearsed techniques to contain oil spillages.
Risks to
the Gulf of Kutch include attacks from enemy missile boats, submarines
or even an aircraft sowing mines at the mouth of the harbour. If a midget
submarine is able to sink a ship in the narrow gulf that leads up to Kandla
port, it could easily paralyse operations. It would take at least a week
to clear one shipwreck from the gulf, say naval officials.
But is the
threat really as big as it is made out to be? Reliance Industries Ltd
officials refused to comment, stating that fears of an attack are based
only on hypothetical situations. “Besides, in today’s age of
missile warfare, distances are redundant. Mumbai could be attacked as
easily as Jamnagar,” says a senior Reliance executive.
The civil
administration too is tight-lipped on the subject. “It’s the
armed forces’ perception,” says Gujarat’s Industries Commissioner
K.N. Shelat. “We don’t have any comments on it.” Their
silence is understandable: there is too much at stake in the state. With
323 projects involving a total investment of Rs 1,67,000 crore, Gujarat
is already the second-largest investment destination in the country. These
include projects worth Rs 27,000 crore in the chemical industry, Rs 44,000
crore in the power sector and Rs 31,000 crore in port development and
liquefied natural gas terminals.
More important,
the state is the gateway for oil imports from the Gulf. It takes a ship
two and a half days to sail the 575 nautical miles from the Straits of
Hormuz in the Persian Gulf to Kandla. In comparison, Mumbai port is 1,005
nautical miles and requires three and a half days sailing time from Hormuz.
But this also means that Kandla is just 10 minutes flying time from the
international border and 235 nautical miles from Karachi, making it India’s
strategic soft underbelly.
The navy
says that the refineries and ports have added to its responsibilities.
In case hostilities break out with Pakistan, it would have to escort merchant
ships headed for ports in Gujarat, ensure a blockade of the Pakistani
coast, carry out offensive operations and also protect the complexes from
seaborne attacks. This will tie down precious resources that could be
used elsewhere. A good number of iaf aircraft from the three bases of
Nalia, Jamnagar and Bhuj in Gujarat are already employed for the air defence
of the region.
A war with
Pakistan is not the only time when the oil refineries and ports in Gujarat
are in danger. Islamabad’s proxy war and terrorism are equally potent
threats. “The non-military security threats in other than war situations
in the Gulf of Kutch are greater,” says dig P. Paleri, commander,
Coast Guard Region (West). The Coast Guard already has three stations
at Vadinar, Okha and Porbandar but needs three more bases to ensure total
protection.
Beefing up
the security in the wake of the threat perception would entail a huge
expenditure. The Coast Guard has already acquired hovercraft to patrol
the sensitive coastline. The navy’s shopping list for this year includes
patrol vessels, surveillance aircraft and minesweepers for “peace-time
surveillance”. The price tag: about Rs 1,000 crore.
Aware that
it may not be possible for the Government to incur such an enormous expenditure,
the navy has suggested that corporate houses with huge investments in
the region should shoulder at least part of the burden. It cites the case
of the Oil and Natural Gas Commission which purchased seven offshore patrol
vessels from Korea to guard the installations at Bombay High in the 1980s.
Radical as it may sound, this is not such a bad idea, considering that
work has just begun on projects worth Rs 59,000 crore.
Commodore
(retd) C. Uday Bhaskar of the Delhi-based Institute for Defence Study
and Analyses. of course. has a more radical suggestion. He says the threat
to the strategic assets in Gujarat could be liquidated if Pakistan had
a stake in their well-being—something like a joint oil pipeline venture
between India and Pakistan, with a third partner country roped in to work
as a mediator in case of a conflict. An example of such harmony is the
Indus river water sharing accord of 1960 which has survived three wars
between the two neighbours. But experience says that with Pakistan, it
is better to be safe than sorry.
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