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THE NATION:
POWER FAILURE
The
Deeper Malaise
Like
most grid failures in the recent past, the collapse of the northern grid
(which covers seven states and a Union territory) on January 2 was caused
due to a variation in power load. This despite a system in place to prevent
such failures. The PGC's Regional Load Dispatch Centre (RLDC) is supposed
to monitor the voltage and frequency of power transmission round the clock.
Like the air traffic controller (ATC) at airports, the RLDC checks the
load constantly and directs the generation plants to step up or cut down
generation if there is a fall or rise in the power load. Only, unlike
the ATC, the RLDC's orders are often flouted. Which is precisely what
seems to have happened on January 2, causing the power crash (see graphic).
This despite the RLDC's orders having legal powers under the Electricity
Supply Act.
Admits CERC
Chairman S.L. Rao, who had inquired into the July 2000 collapse of the
eastern grid and had issued orders for strict adherence of grid discipline:
"Not all our orders were implemented. We are now issuing showcause
notices." CERC is also holding an open-house meeting on January 15
to inquire into the causes of the latest grid failure. Even Union Power
Minister Suresh Prabhu sounds resolute. He has ordered a seven-day probe
and promised harsh punishment for the guilty.
But this
is no guarantee that similar blackouts will not recur. In fact, grid collapses
are only a symptom of a deeper malaise afflicting the entire power sector.
If power plants are defying the RLDC and refusing to cut generation it
is because there is a sudden competition among the generating units to
achieve a higher plant load factor (PLF)-jargon for capacity utilisation
in thermal power plants. Though this is a goal worth striving for, most
plants are trying to attain it without spending on maintenance. Laments
Sinha: "The maintenance is abysmal. Even routine checks aren't undertaken."
The result?
Falling capacity utilisation. The Barauni power plant in Bihar is generating
only 28.8 MW of power though its capacity is 320 MW-a PLF of only 9 per
cent. Similarly, the National Thermal Power Corporation's 410 MW power
plant in Tanda, Uttar Pradesh, is operating at 13.6 per cent PLF (see
charts).
Maintenance
requires funds which are scarce in the state electricity boards (SEBs).
By the end of this financial year, the SEBs would have piled up losses
of over Rs 22,000 crore, which is more than 1 per cent of the India's
national income. The rate of return on capital employed is upwards of
minus 20 per cent. That is, for every Rs 100 invested, the SEBs lose Rs
20 or more.
The dire
state of electricity boards isn't surprising since they earn income from
only 30 per cent of the power they generate. The rest is lost to a black
hole comprising transmission and distribution (T&D) losses (theft
and technical losses), meter faults and subsidised power. Even in Delhi,
which doesn't have to supply subsidised power to farmers, the T&D
losses are close to 55 per cent. Comments Gajendra Haldea, head of infrastructure
at the National Council of Applied Economic Research: "Lack of funds
means no investment and no renovation. This is bound to result in degradation
of assets and poor performance."
Prabhu is
honest enough to admit that the SEBs need to be transformed into commercial
corporations from the political outfits that they currently are. Interestingly,
if generation, transmission and distribution become efficient, India may
not need additional power-generating capacity-at least not at the current
level of power demand.
The country's
generation capacity is a little over 1,s00,000 MW. The average peak demand
between April and October 2000 was 73,567 MW. However, since the average
national PLF is 65.6 per cent, only 65,628 MW of power was supplied-leaving
a shortfall of 7,939 MW or 10.8 per cent. A PLF of 75 per cent could have
met the entire peak demand sufficiently. Of course, a rising demand will
need newer generating capacities, but right now the case for new capacities
is undoubtedly overstated.
Increasing
efficiency in T&D without losing sight of the rising power demand
is something no government in the recent past has been able to achieve.
The solution lies in restructuring the entire power industry. A blueprint
for this already exists in the form of a new power bill which has been
discussed at umpteen seminars and has undergone eight draft revisions.
Says Haldea,
architect of the bill: "Piecemeal measures will not work. The entire
power industry needs to be restructured as has been done in several countries,
both developed and developing." By piloting the bill through Parliament,
Prabhu can prove his convictions. And hopefully, usher the country out
of the dark ages.
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METRO TODAY
As
the Government brings in more people and mops more money in taxes, it
must be seen to be rewarding those who come forth and pay up, writes India
Today Associate Editor V. Shankar Aiyar in 