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STATES:
TAMIL NADU
From Anna to Amma
By Arun
Ram
The
PMK rebellion marks a total political realignment in the state that is
likely to have a decisive impact on the assembly election results
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BOUQUETS
FOR NOW: For Jayalalitha, the tie-up with Ramadoss was a coup de
grace
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Long
ago, as a medical student, S. Ramadoss must have learnt about schizophrenia.
On February 5, the founder-leader of Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) triggered
the political variant of it with clinical precision. Coming as it does
on the eve of the assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, the PMK's decision
to desert the NDA and court J. Jayalalitha's AIADMK has left virtually
every Dravida party paranoid. And the rebellion of five PMK MPs, including
two Union ministers, A. Ponnusamy and N.T. Shanmugham, has totally changed
political equations in the state.
A decisive
player in the new scenario is Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) leader G.K.
Moopanar. For, the desperate DMK President and Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi
is trying to woo back the TMC, though Moopanar continues to vacillate.
Any middle path would mean Moopanar leading a third front, as is the hope
of the Dalit Panthers of India (DPI), which is pulling out of the AIADMK
combine. Moopanar is also being pressured by the newly formed New Justice
Party (NJP) to make such a move. The NJP, led by former AIADMK MP A.C.
Shanmugham, represents the Mudaliar community. Another recently founded
casteist party, the Makkal Tamil Desam (MTD) of the Yadavas, might also
try for a third front.
Jayalalitha,
on her part, has effected a coup de grace. The way in which Ramadoss discovered
the worth of "the sister" shows the meticulous planning on their
part. When Ramadoss met Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee on February 5, he
was armed with the resignations of his two ministers, Ponnusamy (minister
of state for petroleum) and Shanmugham (minister of state for coal) as
also a letter showering praises on Vajpayee. Then he flew back with his
ministers to Chennai to announce that he would be meeting Jayalalitha
the next day. The second act looked a much-rehearsed one. Ramadoss drove
to Jayalalitha's Poes Garden residence and did the customary salutations
for the benefit of the cameras. It was total submission. Karunanidhi,
who unconventionally read out a statement saying the PMK's switch-over
was anticipated, contradicted himself when he spoke extempore soon after.
"I didn't think I would be fooled," he replied when asked why
he met Ramadoss last month. And that meeting, as is evident now, was on
the advice of Jayalalitha. Ramadoss, when he was being viewed as a fence-sitter,
called on Karunanidhi to make a promise only to be broken later.
But now,
everyone except Ramadoss and Jayalalitha is faced with the question of
survival. The TMC, which was compelled to sail with Jayalalitha after
its debacle in the 1999 Lok Sabha polls, finds its position in the alliance
turning precarious with the PMK's entry. It can never subscribe to Ramadoss'
unabashed love for the LTTE. More than its ideological opposition to the
PMK, what makes the TMC shudder is the high probability of the PMK hijacking
the second-largest-party-in-the-AIADMK-combine status from it. And Ramadoss
has made it clear that his goal is to rule Pondicherry, to begin with.
The first
casualty in the AIADMK front is the dpi. Party convener R. Tirumavalavan
maintains he can never think of being part of any alliance which has the
PMK as a partner. A small solace to the DMK now is the willingness of
the DPI and the Dr Krishnasamy-led Puthiya Tamizhagam to dock their wagons
with the NDA. This would help lend a pro-Dalit image to the DMK, while
the alliance of the Vanniyar PMK and the Thevar-supported AIADMK could
be projected as anti-Dalit.
Amidst all
this, the Congress is in the tightest spot. While the party is a near
non-entity in Tamil Nadu, it still has its stakes in Pondicherry, which
the PMK aims to capture. Congress President Sonia Gandhi has summoned
TNCC President E.V.K.S. Elangovan and other leaders to Delhi. With nowhere
to go, say Congressmen, Sonia might ask the PCC to continue in the AIADMK
fold, which would mean losing Pondicherry too.
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