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STATES:
TAMIL NADU
Vote Bank Politics
In
this merry-go-round season, ideology is passe. It's pure vote-bank politics
and it works well for the AIADMK-PMK joint venture. The AIADMK has its
Thevar strength in the south, while the PMK has a Vanniyar vote share
which may go up to more than 20 per cent in the northern districts such
as Cuddalore, Villupuram and North Arcot, not to speak of Pondicherry.
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While
Karunanidhi's confusion is apparent, one theory is that the BJP
leadership has a tacit understanding with AIADMK for the long run.
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To make things
extraordinarily curious, there is this greater theory of the AIADMK having
a tacit understanding with the BJP national leadership. Jayalalitha's
two recent meetings with BJP Rajya Sabha member and journalist Cho Ramaswamy
gains significance again. Speculation is rife that the AIADMK, along with
the PMK, will go back to the BJP, perhaps after the assembly elections.
Some BJP national leaders, including Union Home Minister L.K. Advani,
are said to believe that the AIADMK will make a comeback in the state,
and hence the party should revive its ties with her and realise the dream
of spreading saffron in the south.
According
to this theory, the bait for Jayalalitha comes in the form of an "assistance"
in enabling her to contest the coming elections, though she has been sentenced
to two years' rigorous imprisonment.
While it
is still being debated if the AIADMK general secretary would invite disqualification
under the Representation of People Act, the rules have it that the returning
officer is the sole authority to accept a nomination. If a party in power
so wishes, a tainted politician can contest. Anyone who wishes to challenge
the decision will have to go to court, and the case could take years together
to arrive at the verdict.
The AIADMK
dismisses such theories as baseless. Says party spokesperson V. Maithreyan:
"The BJP did not help us when we were with that party. How do you
expect such help when we are in the rival camp?"
But for the BJP, the PMK surprise has come as a sort of political aftershock
of the Gujarat earthquake. That too at a time when the party was looking
for potential allies in the south on the eve of the assembly elections.
But Tamil allies are too volatile to be permanently friendly.
-with Farzand Ahmed
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