|
THE NATION: CONGRESS
Desperately
Seeking Allies
On
assembly poll eve, the party gets pragmatic and tries to hitch its wagon
to the winning side
By Lakshmi Iyer
 In
its 1998 Pachmarhi declaration, the Congress had observed that the "present
difficulties in forming one-party government" were a transient phase
and that it would consider coalitions only "on the basis of agreed
programmes which would not weaken it or compromise its basic ideology".
Three years later, on the eve of assembly elections to four states-West
Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam-and the Union territory of Pondicherry,
the party finds that it just can't get away from coalitions.
While it leads an electoral
front in Kerala, the Congress is not in a position of primacy in West
Bengal and Tamil Nadu and is desperately seeking allies for its survival.
In West Bengal, it seems set to eat humble pie, even abandon its policy
of no-direct-or-indirect-alliance with the BJP or other NDA partners.
It has acceded in principle to the demand of its MLAs for a limited mahajot
(grand alliance) with the Trinamool Congress, an NDA constituent. These
MLAs are mainly from Kolkata and south Bengal where Congress workers have
en masse joined the Trinamool.
|
TAMIL
NADU
|
|
|
STRATEGY:
The Congress is banking on the TMC to drive a bargain with the AIADMK.
BEST BET:
Piggy backing on Jaya
|
|
| OBSTACLE RACE: Jaya (right) prefers
Moopanar (left) to Sonia as a post-poll investment |
In Tamil Nadu, where
the AIADMK and the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) explored a poll pact to
offload the Congress, the national party even received an audacious proposal
to take the lion's share of seats in Pondicherry in lieu of withdrawing
its claim in the state. On its part, the Congress was ready to do business
with the LTTE-leaning Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) just to stay in the
J. Jayalalitha-led alliance.
According to party circles,
these developments signal a new era of flexibility in the Congress' approach
to alliances. It also shows the Congress is fighting with its back to
the wall to retain its relevance as an all-India party.
In West Bengal, the party's
readiness to dismount the high horse of unalloyed secularism was primarily
a result of pressure from its MLAs. But this time they were backed by
the newly appointed AICC General Secretary Kamal Nath, a former Sanjay
Gandhi loyalist who began his political career in Kolkata.
A fortnight ago, 22
of the party's 52 remaining MLAs led by Saugata Roy wrote to Congress
President Sonia Gandhi threatening to quit if there was no pact with the
Trinamool. The threat worked. Nath called the recalcitrant legislators
to Delhi, arranged a meeting with Sonia, keeping anti-mahajot PCC President
Pranab Mukherjee out of the discussions. The talks helped at least 12
MLAs change their minds. The reason: a "limited strategic understanding"
with the Trinamool that Nath promised them.
Nath recognises he can't force Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee to break
away from the BJP. "I don't care about the NDA. I will hold formal
talks with Mamata," he says. "While we will have a pact with
the Trinamool, we will put up candidates against the BJP." According
to him, the limited mahajot is imperative as there is no third front space
in Bengal. "There is only anti-Left Front space and Mamata has evicted
us from there." Sonia's constant interactions with CPI(M) General
Secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet have also compromised the party's feeble
anti-left credentials.
|
WEST
BENGAL
|
|
|
STRATEGY:
The Congress wants a mahajot with the Trinamool despite its links
with the BJP.
BEST BET:
Mamata's leftovers
|
|
| Mamata (right) sees a tie-up with
BJP Bengal chief Asim Ghose (left) as a post-poll investment |
Regardless of Nath's
attempt to get the best of both worlds, Roy and some of his associates
insist they will go ahead with their exit plans. "Things would have
been different if Nath took charge six months ago. He is a nice man. But
can he get us elected?" asks Roy, who stood against Mamata in the
1998 Lok Sabha election and lost his deposit. He is not sure if the Trinamool
would accept the Congress' pre-condition of fielding candidates against
the BJP since the two parties have agreed on a joint manifesto. In that
case, the Congress MLAs will end up falling between two stools.
In Tamil Nadu, the Congress
also desperately needs to ride the crest with the AIADMK. However, after
the disaster of the 1999 tea party and Sonia's failure to form an alternative
government that year, Jayalalitha has been disdainful of the Congress.
Earlier this month she embarrassed the Congress by admitting the PMK into
the alliance without consulting it. She also offered a measly 10 seats
to the Congress in the first round of talks.
A miffed Congress imagined it could bolster its bargaining clout by entering
into a pact with the TMC. The party calculated that it could exploit TMC
leader G.K. Moopanar's loyalty to the Nehru-Gandhi family. Jayalalitha
punctured this strategy by offering the Congress and the TMC a total of
40 seats. Since the TMC has 37 MLAs in the outgoing assembly, the offer
threw the party into a dilemma. Party workers mounted pressure on Moopanar
to put its own interests above that of the Congress.
Keen to retain the TMC,
Jayalalitha also began directly talking to Moopanar, offering him 35 seats
plus the Tiruchi Lok Sabha seat (a BJP-held seat which is vacant following
the death of former Union power minister Rangarajan Kumaramangalam). She
also decided to exploit the Congress' keenness to retain its government
in Pondicherry. She offered it 12 out of the 33 seats in the Union territory
in lieu of foregoing its share in Tamil Nadu. This quota would be three
seats more than what the PMK and the AIADMK would be contesting. It's
a tempting bait because the Congress is worried by the fact that PMK leader
S. Ramadoss, who has made no secret of his pro-LTTE leanings, is anxious
to make his son Anbumani the chief minister in the event of a win.
It is not just Jayalalitha
who has been exploiting the divided TNCC. The DMK has also been fishing
in the troubled waters. The ruling party in the state has been exploiting
the aversion of TNCC President E.V.K.S. Elangovan to the AIADMK supremo
and the PCC chief has been mooting a third front, with the TMC leading
it. Such a front would split anti-incumbency votes and indirectly help
the DMK alliance retain power.
The manner in which
the leadership negotiates its way in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu will be
keenly followed by Congressmen anxious to assess Sonia's political skills.
Without Mamata's help in West Bengal, the Congress is unlikely to get
more than a handful of its 52 MLAs re-elected. In the 1996 assembly elections
the party won 83 seats but that was before Mamata broke away. In 1999,
it won three Lok Sabha seats, polling 13 per cent. But its success was
confined to three Muslim-dominated districts of North Bengal.
Likewise in Tamil Nadu,
the party, as an AIADMK ally, polled 9 per cent votes and got two MPs
elected in 1999. If it is forced to go it alone, it may fare as dismally
as it did in 1998. Keen to turn the assembly elections into a referendum
on the NDA Government at the Centre and thereby force a realignment, the
Congress is willing to hitch its wagon to any winning arrangement. Ideological
inhibitions have been put on hold.
-with
Arun Ram and Labonita Ghosh
|
METRO TODAY
Web
Exclusives