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Breathing Easy

A confident Kumaratunga seeks big brother's blessings for her peace moves with the LTTE

Sri Lanka is a riddle that continues to fox India. For if experts had to make sense of the recent developments in the island, they may be tempted to conclude it is perched on the brink of a peace that has eluded it in two decades of bloody ethnic strife. Yet there is also evidence to show the Sri Lankan Government can descend into the abyss of another debilitating war with its chief antagonist, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), if current trends do not hold up. So a major reason for President Chandrika Kumaratunga's three-day visit was to give Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee a first-hand account of the contradictory signals in her country. And to ensure India's support for Lankan unity did not flag in the difficult months ahead.

Kumaratunga comes at a time when her country is at an important crossroads. After cobbling together a coalition government after the October elections, she was compelled to turn to Jaffna. The Sri Lankan Army had held the LTTE at bay after losing the strategic Elephant Pass and in recent months had begun to make some gains. But the most important development was Norwegian diplomat Erik Solheim's ground-breaking meeting with LTTE chief V. Pirabhakaran on November 1. Solheim came back saying the Tigers were willing to open unconditional peace talks.

Bitter after the assassination attempt that saw her lose an eye, Kumaratunga wasn't convinced the Tiger had changed its stripes. Colombo turned down a truce declared by the Tigers on December 25 and the military kept the heat on in Jaffna, grabbing a big swathe of rebel territory. Analysts said the LTTE was keeping an eye on Britain where newly enacted anti-terrorism legislation could be used to pinion them. Sri Lanka pushed hard to have the LTTE proscribed so their London base, used for propaganda and fund-raising, would have to pull down shutters. But when the law came into force on February 19, London did not name any international rebel group that would be immediately outlawed, a face-saving gesture for all sides.

The economic toll of the conflict and the cost of holding Jaffna began to become apparent in the new year. Emergency weapons purchases and world oil prices conspired to push the country's foreign reserves dangerously low to around $1 billion at the end of 2000, a 36 per cent drop compared to a year earlier. And despite the Central Bank's efforts the rupee went through the roof with the dollar being traded at an all-time high of SL Rs 100. Several administrative measures helped the rupee to stabilise somewhat, but it fell by nearly 30 per cent in 2000.

Kumaratunga's visit will once again raise questions about India's role in settling the conflict. After the LTTE's dramatic comeback in 1999, Delhi said it could not provide Colombo military aid but would "give a helping hand" to thrash out a political solution. After Kumaratunga's failed bid to push through a devolution plan to avoid the country's partition-keenly supported by India-last August, the peace bid has become Norway's province.

The peace bid appears no nearer to opening a dialogue although Kumaratunga recently referred to the Tigers' overtures as "a small window of opportunity". According to reports, the antagonists have agreed to hold pre-negotiation talks in a European city. Part of Kumaratunga's mission was to seek India's views if countries like the US and the UK offered to broker talks. India's stance has always been that it has a "disinterested interest" in Sri Lankan affairs and may not now be averse to such a scenario.

That comfort comes from the growing trust between Delhi and Colombo. Vajpayee and Kumaratunga are happy with the progress of the Sri Lanka Free Trade Area Agreement signed when she came down in 1998. It had essentially called for removing trade barriers in a phased manner, and in the past two years exports from Sri Lanka to India have shot up. Also the domestic Tamil factor that guided much of India's actions is far less strident so it is easier for Vajpayee to take decisions on Lanka. Kumaratunga's visit solidified that trend making Colombo and Delhi breathe much easier.

-Raj Chengappa with Christine Jayasinhe in Colombo

MetroScape
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