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NEIGHBOURS: MYANMAR
Military Balance
Though it is sending peace feelers, there is a tussle
in the armed forces on the future course
In the absence of
openness, Yangon-watching has been elevated into an art form, in much
the same way Kremlin-watching was 30 years ago. Inevitably, much of the
recent speculation centres on a power struggle in the military over the
succession to Than Shwe.
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| NEXT ONE: Succession
to Than Shwe (above) has pitted Khin Nyunt (top right) against Maung
Aye |
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Curiously, Than Shwe is not the focus. Despite
rumours of ill health, the 68-year-old senior general is alert and in
total command. He actively participated in the talks with India's External
Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh on February 15 and spoke on a range of
subjects without notes. The suggestion that he will abruptly relinquish
power on health grounds seems somewhat far-fetched.
At the root of the speculation is a bid by Aung
San Suu Kyi to exploit contradictions in the army. In particular, a well-publicised
rivalry between SPDC Vice-Chairman General Maung Aye and Secretary-1 Lt-General
Khin Nyunt. In the assessment of Analytica Birmanie, a Burma-watch newsletter,
it is "a war between those with brawn and elements that possess a
lot of brain and craftiness".
The contrast is striking. As head of military
intelligence and the architect of the cease-fire with ethnic insurgent
groups, Khin Nyunt has held confidence-building negotiations with Suu
Kyi. The talks have made progress and Suu Kyi reportedly told an EU delegation
of her satisfaction with Khin Nyunt. Pro-opposition publications in Thailand
have painted Khin Nyunt as a reformer who enjoys the confidence of westernised
army officers, intellectuals, businessman and, most important, China.
In short, someone who could be a bridge between the military and the opposition.
In the other corner is Maung Aye, a Buddhist
traditionalist enjoying the full backing of the army. Maung Aye is said
to have consolidated his position last year following trips to India,
China and Laos. Wary of appeasing ethnic insurgents he has been very supportive
of India's cross-border problems. Once the clear favourite to succeed
Than Shwe, Maung Aye's ascendancy has raised the hackles of both China
and the West, a reason why Suu Kyi is being encouraged to dabble in intra-military
intrigues.
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