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STATES: BIHAR
Taking On the Family
Laloo Yadav is once again facing
a tough fight for survival, this time prompted by a near revolt in the
RJD following rumours of a dynastic take-over
By Farzand Ahmed and Sanjay K. Jha
Strategy meets of
the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leadership these days resemble story-telling
sessions in a village courtyard. Laloo Prasad Yadav is the storyteller
and his party faithful make up the audience. Last week's fable centred
on a few unscrupulous hunters who were on the prowl. ''Shikari aaye ga.
Jaal bichayega. Dana dalega. Khaoge to phans jaoge. Tum mut khana
(The hunter will come and spread his net. You will be trapped if you touch
the bait).''
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FAMILY RELAY: Laloo and Rabri's (left)
efforts to promote their kith and kin, including son-in-law Sailesh
Kumar (top) and his family, have alienated senior RJD leaders |
The meaning was lost on at least one of the loyalists
who had assembled at Chief Minister Rabri Devi's Anne Marg bungalow last
week. ''But who are the hunters?'' he asked. ''Nitish Kumar, Ram Vilas
Paswan and Sushil Kumar Modi who are asking my friend Ranjan Yadav to
break our party and form a government with their unconditional support,''
Laloo explained.
Ever since he became the Bihar chief minister
for the first time in 1990, Laloo has seen many ups and downs-and even
the insides of a few jails. If he had been rattled, it never showed. But
now, there is panic in his camp.
The sudden turnabout came last week on the day
Laloo organised the "Gaon Bachao, Desh Bachao" rally in Patna
against the Centre's ''anti-farmers, anti-people policy''. By the standards
that Laloo himself had set, the rally was a disaster. Though his followers
claim that over 5 lakh attended, official estimates suggest the crowd
was around 50,000. Several senior RJD leaders stayed away from the rally,
saying it wasn't a party affair but ''a bid to save the family''. The
absentees included four of the party's seven Lok Sabha members, nearly
30 of the 115 MLAs and half a dozen ministers. Dissident leaders who boycotted
the event said they felt humiliated that the posters and banners for the
rally did not mention any names except those of Laloo and Rabri Devi.
Worse, some posters even projected Laloo's school-going son Tej Pratap
as ''Yuva Samrat''.
Typically, Laloo later claimed it was a ''mischief
engineered by my enemies'', but the evidence on the dais supported the
dissidents' claim that it was a ''family rally''. Occupying centrestage
was the Yadav family: Laloo, Rabri, daughter Misa Bharti's husband Sailesh
Kumar, his father and two of Rabri's brothers, including Subhash Yadav.
There was more bad news for Laloo. His famed
''my'' (Muslim-Yadav) combination has also developed cracks as three controversial
Muslim MPs - Anwarul Haq, Mohammad Shahabuddin and Taslimuddin - have
turned against him. They were angry over Laloo's reported remarks that
they were suspected ISI agents and had to mend their ways. The dissidents
lapped it up, saying ''this is an insult to the Muslim community which
supports Laloo and the RJD. How can we tolerate such an insulting remark?''
Laloo is livid over reports that the rally was
organised to project Misa Bharti as her mother's successor. Whatever the
truth, rebel activity reached frenetic levels in both Delhi and Patna.
Ranjan, once Laloo's trusted aide and currently RJD working president,
was contacted by NDA leaders from the state-Nitish Kumar, Ram Vilas Paswan
and Sharad Yadav-who repeatedly promised him unconditional support in
case he managed to muster enough RJD legislators to form a separate group
or a new party.
According to insiders, the NDA-backed rebels
have drawn up a plan to pull down the Rabri Government by abstaining or
voting against money bills. If this happens, Rabri would have to resign.
But the dissidents would need to form a separate bloc of 39 MLAs to escape
disqualification under the anti-defection law. Nagmani, a rebel MP, claims
that 50-60 MLAs have pledged to support Ranjan Yadav. The NDA, with its
combined strength of 83 MLAs, has offered unconditional support from outside.
All this adds up to a substantial 133 in a House of 243 members.
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House Of Cards
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Post-Jharkhand, the RJD has a slender majority,
but a split
in the party could
spell its doom.
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RJD +allies
BJP +allies
Others
Total |
Then
166
135
24
325 |
Now
140
83
20
243 |
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Laloo, a shrewd operator, has initiated pre-emptive
measures. He believes - and has told his partymen - that the NDA plans
to install Ranjan only to topple him later, forcing the Governor to impose
President's rule in the state. The Opposition's calculation, it is supposed,
is that once out of power and behind bars, the ''royal'' couple would
lose their clout.
Mystery surrounds the sudden rift between Laloo
and Ranjan. Party insiders claim that Ranjan had been unhappy for some
time now because the coterie around Laloo-Rabri and the over-ambitious
family members had isolated the party strongman. Ranjan began to emerge
as the rallying point for the dissidents. The one-time target of taunts
of Laloo's acolytes, Ranjan is said to have announced that he was the
''asli Yadav''. Recently, a meeting organised by Ranjan in Madhubani district
was disrupted by Laloo supporters.
This seems to have been the turning point in
the relations between the old friends. Ranjan, backed by Nagmani and some
dissidents, took a vow to end the Laloo-Rabri raj. Waiting in the wings
were the earlier friends-turned-foes Nitish Kumar, Modi and Paswan. They
established contacts with the rebels who felt it was ''now or never''.
Yet, even the harshest of his critics are not
ready to underestimate Laloo's political acumen. NDA leaders concede that
as he has managed to do many times in the past, Laloo could still pull
a few rabbits out of his hat. Shankar Prasad Tekriwal, the dissident finance
minister, has been vacillating. He boycotted the rally, but now says that
voicing concern about lack of development did not mean he wanted a change
in the leadership or that he would resign to join the rebels camp. ''I
would not do anything which would strengthen the hands of either the Opposition
or the rebels,'' he has declared. Water Resources Minister Jagdanand Singh,
who had also stayed away from the rally has backtracked. Talking about
development, he says, does not amount to dissident activity. This has
emboldened Laloo to declare that those who were opposed to the leadership
should quit the party instead of making noises every now and then.
However, what is worrying Laloo this time is
pure political arithmetics. RJD dissidents need 39 MLAs to split the party.
This, together with the NDA's 83 MLAs would add up to an absolute majority
in the Assembly (see box). The success of this ploy could spell political
doom for Laloo.
But it is not going to be roses all the way
for Ranjan, either. He is reported to be in two minds over seeking help
from NDA partners, particularly the BJP. He has, in the past, vigorously
campaigned against the BJP and any help from his one-time foes could tarnish
his image. Besides, those who offer unconditional support tend to withdraw
it sooner rather than later. Ranjan, therefore, is setting his sights
on weaning away at least 90 party legislators. That's a tall order-one
which may give Laloo yet another reprieve.
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