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COVER STORY: NDA
Colossal Impact
It
was a week of unintended consequences. The spy tapes, interesting as they
were for the light they shed on the corrupt underbelly of the defence
and political establishment, would perhaps not have had such a colossal
impact had the credibility of the Government been intact. But for the
past three months, the credibility of the NDA Government had been seriously
compromised by a series of controversies that put a big question mark
on the integrity of some key functionaries. There was a furious controversy
over abrupt changes in the telecom policy, a battle over a key official
in the PMO, whispers of irregularities in the BALCO privatisation and
a stock market scandal. Arguably, these were functional hiccups but they
generated a stench. The Tehelka revelations were the proverbial last straw.
Curiously, defence purchases were never at the
centre of the Government's problems. At the heart of the controversy was
the functioning of the PMO, particularly the operations of two key officials-Mishra
and Officer on Special Duty (OSD) N.K. Singh. A retired diplomat who joined
the PMO after a stint as the BJP's foreign affairs cell convener, Mishra
has acquired a slightly sinister image of a cross between Dr No and Goldfinger.
Assisting him in economic matters is Singh, a former IAS officer with
a reputation for both efficiency and networking. Earlier targeted by both
AIADMK leader J. Jayalalitha and the RSS, Singh has survived every dispensation
in Delhi and come out stronger.
Also in the line of fire is Vajpayee's businessman
foster son-in-law Ranjan Bhattacharya. An affable socialite, Bhattacharya
was made OSD by Vajpayee during the 13-day government in 1996. Vajpayee's
personal companion on his tours, he is mentioned in political circles
as an extra-constitutional authority. Bhattacharya was described by Laxman
in the Tehelka tapes as someone who helps out in power projects.
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HOLDING FIRM: Despite internal wranglings
the NDA has so far managed to stay united
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While Bhattacharya's involvement is the subject
of whispers, the Government has been divided on the role of Mishra and
Singh. Senior ministers like Home Minister L.K. Advani, Finance Minister
Yashwant Sinha and External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh are known to
be quite forthright in their opposition to both the men continuing in
the PMO. The clamour for their removal intensified after cellular operators
charged that the duo subverted the country's telecom policy to suit some
business lobbies. Mishra's exceptional interest in certain facets of the
Bofors case has also intrigued officials. "He is bad news,"
complains a senior BJP minister, suggesting that the next round of battle
could come from within.
As for Singh, he was scheduled to retire on
January 31 and be appointed India's high commissioner to Canada. However,
at the eleventh hour, the plan was put on hold. Instead, after Minister
of State for Disinvestment Arun Shourie pressed his case with both Vajpayee
and Advani, Singh was earmarked to help secure foreign investments. But
he stayed on in the PMO as osd, appearing on tv during the budget as the
Government's authentic spokesman.
The offensive against Mishra and Singh has the
potential of aggravating the political crisis, given Vajpayee's reported
dependence on both. But it is an issue that could unite the BJP, its NDA
allies and sections of the Opposition that are anxious to draw blood,
without precipitating a collapse of the Government at a time when no alternative
is in sight.
But an abrupt collapse could well be on the
cards if Vajpayee refuses to budge and makes the continuation of Mishra
and Singh a prestige issue. This is a real possibility because Mishra
has a tremendous hold over both Vajpayee and his household, including
the power to decide things on behalf of the prime minister. The suggestion
by one of the middlemen in the Tehelka tapes that Mishra is the real prime
minister is frequently echoed in political circles. This has led to a
bizarre situation whereby those who want to strengthen the Government
and the prime minister want Mishra to go. Those anxious to cripple Vajpayee
are likewise inclined. Mishra has become the symbol of a larger battle
over Vajpayee.
It could end up being a very costly exercise.
Today, the Government's credibility is at an all-time low. It still has
a 20-strong majority that it plans to demonstrate during a proposed vote
of confidence to end the present uncertainty. But the problem isn't one
of numbers. It is one of overcoming the real danger of being reduced to
a lame-duck status, just as Rajiv Gandhi was after the Bofors scandal.
In terms of governance this could involve the administration shying away
from all contentious areas, particularly those involving large monetary
transactions. The ambitious programme of privatisation of 27 public sector
units and defence modernisation seem set to become the casualties of the
latest crisis. If the ruling coalition performs dismally in the coming
assembly elections, it could even slow down the reforms process. Unless,
of course, the Government embarks on a fresh start.
Not that anyone ever imagined that the fallout
of the Tehelka investigations would go so far as to influence the fate
of both the Government and the PMO. The Cabinet met on the evening of
March 13, a few hours after TV channels beamed images of Jaitly explaining
the democratic niceties of the Samata while facilitating a donation, and
Laxman casually thrusting wads of notes into a drawer. Yet, strangely,
most of the Cabinet was clueless about the magnitude of the expose. It
was left to Union Minister for Law and Shipping Arun Jaitley, the only
one who had taken the trouble to download the voluminous report, to brief
his colleagues about the Tehelka disclosures.
Jaitley's findings had a bearing on the fate
of the BJP president who waited in the adjoining room. Laxman had arrived
in South Block after telling reporters that he had indeed taken a donation
for the party but that there was nothing improper about it. He detected
an anti-Dalit "conspiracy" behind the Tehelka story. It would
have been a credible argument had it not been for the fact that the transcript
also showed him willing to accept donations in dollars. He even gave the
donors advice on the role that Mishra would play in facilitating a deal.
Neither Vajpayee nor Advani, who sits next to
the prime minister in the Cabinet, was amused. Following a brief discussion,
it was agreed that Laxman had to go. Vajpayee ambled across to the next
room and within 10 minutes Laxman was given his marching orders. To ensure
a prompt resignation, OSD in the PMO Sudheendra Kulkarni-who, ironically,
drafted Laxman's famous Nagpur speech-was despatched to the BJP chief's
house to collect the letter.
Laxman's departure was the easy part of crisis
management. More daunting was coping with the problem of Jaitly and Fernandes.
In the cabinet meeting, the defence minister offered to resign and prove
his innocence as a "free man". Fernandes' offer wasn't impulsive.
He arrived at the meeting slightly confused over the conflicting signals
he had received. Some of that confusion was resolved when Advani categorically
turned down his offer to resign, saying it was unnecessary because he
had committed no impropriety.
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