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VIEWPOINT: POLITICALLY CORRECT
Return
Of The Curse
Post-Tehelka
pressures on the NDA Government will see reforms come to a standstill.
By P. Chidambaram
 The
curse is back. The curse that strikes India every other year. It first
happened with the 1997 budget, the so-called dream budget. Sitaram Kesri
decided it was time to pull the rug from under the H.D. Deva Gowda-led
United Front government. To this day no one is wiser why he withdrew support.
It happened again in 1999 after Yashwant Sinha, abandoning swadeshi slogans,
presented a reasonably reformist budget. The curse has struck once again
in 2001, shortly after Sinha's latest budget.
In 1997 and 1999, the Congress' gamble of being
able to form the government failed. In 1997 it did not have the numbers
and it is a mystery how Kesri, a renowned accountant, forgot simple arithmetic.
In 1999, the Congress had the numbers but not the wisdom to offer to lead
a coalition government.
The gamble this time is an interesting one.
The Congress still does not have the numbers, but has declared its willingness
to form a coalition government. There are no takers yet.
This time, at least, the Congress has reason
to be righteously indignant. The Tehelka expose is no routine scandal.
It is the first time bribe takers have been caught in the act. We always
knew that defence procurement was in the clutches of arms dealers and
Delhi was their hunting ground. They lived in the best addresses, drove
the best cars, threw the best parties and kept a long payroll. It was
common knowledge that 10-20 per cent of the value of defence deals represented
bribes. This is one of the reasons why the Finance Ministry is loath to
provide more and more money for defence purchases, especially in the absence
of internal controls or internal audit.
 The
BJP Government raised the budget for the Ministry of Defence sharply.
It was a short-sighted move. When there is more money, it only whets the
appetite of the arms dealers. More fixers jump into the game and more
people are ensnared. It is now pretty clear that one of them attached
himself to the foolish Bangaru Laxman, sang his praise, offered to organise
a birthday party and, in due course, brought in an "arms dealer",
although fictitious as it turned out. The question is, how many dealers,
other than the fictitious one, gained access to Laxman? And how many to
Jaya Jaitly?
Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and his Government, cannot
pretend that there is no corruption at the highest levels. Equally, the
Congress cannot pretend that corruption in high places is a post-1996
or post-1998 phenomenon. Every government has had its share of corrupt
ministers and corrupt bureaucrats. What one expected the bjp to do, as
a party new to government, was to demonstrate zero-tolerance when the
corrupt were caught red-handed.
This is where Vajpayee faltered, and continues
to falter. When the Tehelka tapes were aired to a select audience, Vajpayee
should have promptly called for the resignations of Laxman and George
Fernandes. He should have also insisted that Jaitly resign as the Samata
Party's chief and Fernandes step down from the convenership of the NDA.
He dithered during those crucial hours, in much the same manner as P.V.
Narasimha Rao did when the Babri Masjid was demolished by vandals. Vajpayee
has paid a heavy price.
His unwillingness to let go of the key players
in the Prime Minister's Office/household will also take a toll on his
credibility. Eventually, Vajpayee will have no choice but to make the
changes.
In the meantime, we might as well forget the
promises of the budget. There will be no disinvestment (except of the
sham variety like the recent purchase of shares of stand-alone refineries).
There will be no major legislative measures because nothing will pass
muster in the Rajya Sabha, and this includes the Fiscal Responsibility
and Budget Management Bill. There will be no labour reforms. There will
be no downsizing of the government. None of the committees that Sinha
appointed will be able to present their reports, and if some do, no action
is likely on those reports.
The biggest casualties will be consumer spending
and investment. When one or both take a dive, growth will be seriously
affected. The climate for investment is already poor. Add political instability
at the Centre, and the foreign investor will be the first to run for cover.
With Parliament paralysed and elections round the corner in five states,
we can kiss goodbye to the first quarter of the current fiscal.
With the Congress expected to do well in Assam
and Kerala, the Left Front in West Bengal and the BJP nowhere, there will
be renewed pressure on the Vajpayee Government. There may be takers for
the Congress' bait after the May-June elections. The million dollar question
is: does Vajpayee have the foresight to use the next six weeks to revamp
his Government and restore his credibility?
Meanwhile, Sinha can rue his misfortune, as
I did in the summer of 1997.
(The author is a former Indian finance minister
and a TMC leader.)
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