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COVER STORY: THE STOCK SCAM; FALLOUT
Will The Global Slowdown Swallow The Indian Economy?
S.L. Rao, Economist and former
director-general, NCAER
No, the global economic slowdown should
not affect the Indian economy too badly because we are not too dependent
on exports.
Surjit Bhalla, President Oxus
Research
No, because the global economic slowdown
will not stretch beyond the next couple of months. The US economy will
revive by the second half of 2001. Besides, the Indian economy is not
as dependent on the world economy as south-east Asian economies are.
Pradeep Srivastava, Principal
Economist, National Council for Applied Economic Research
Yes, the global slowdown,
the petering out of the consumption boost from the Pay Commission, last
year's poor harvest, the WTO-mandated opening of imports from April 1-all
these are factors that pose the downside risk to economic growth this
year.
B.B. Bhattacharya, Professor,
Institute of Economic Growth
No, because it is not yet clear how deep
the global economic slowdown is. If it is merely a correction of overheating
of the US economy, then it is a temporary phenomenon.
M.R. Madhavan, Vice-President,
Research,
Bank of America
Yes, the slowdown in the US would
have an adverse impact and export growth is likely to decline to single
digits. The information technology industry would bear the brunt of the
slowdown.
Ashima Goyal, Professor, Indira
Gandhi Institute for Development Research
No, because there are
some alleviating aspects of the slowdown. More US and Japanese firms may
turn to India. The US policy establishment is proactive and may succeed
in a soft landing. In any case, east Asia is doing well now.
U. Sankar, Director, Madras
School of Economics
No, the slowdown in the US and Japanese
economies will affect our export prospects only in the short term. India
has tremendous unexploited growth potential which we can tap by providing
good infrastructure and suitable economic policies. India itself is a
large market.
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