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ASSEMBLY POLLS 2001: ASSAM

Wannabe Weds A Has Been

The BJP's decision to tie up with the AGP is driven by electoral arithmetic and the arms deal expose

By Wasbir Hussain in Guwahati

Sometime in February, the ruling Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) softly tapped the BJP's door to find out whether it was interested in a "wedding" before the assembly elections in Assam. The BJP's state leaders, including its not-so-fiery president Rajen Gohain, stonewalled. "The anti-incumbency wave against the
AGP is increasing by the day," Gohain had said. That's when Tehelka's armsgate broke, pushing the BJP into a corner. And AGP President and Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta must have thanked his stars.

On March 25, there was brisk activity at Mahanta's heavily fortified official residence in Guwahati. Cars started arriving with leaders of the AGP's alliance partners. There was the CPI's Promode Gogoi, a cabinet minister, the CPI(M)'s Hemen Das, an MLA, and Abdul Muhib Mazumdar, president of the Samajwadi Party's state unit and also a cabinet minister. Several senior AGP leaders were present too. The four parties, partners for the past five years, resolved to fight the Congress and the BJP jointly. This was supposed to set at rest all speculation about an AGP-BJP tie-up.

Less than a week later, on March 29, Mahanta flew to Kolkata and called on Jyoti Basu, a meeting that reassured the AGP's left partners. Later that evening, Mahanta arrived in Delhi and met Home Minister L.K. Advani, ostensibly to discuss peace talks with the homeland-seeking Bodo leadership. That session instead clinched the electoral alliance between the AGP and the BJP. This time, there was no open opposition from BJP leaders in Assam. By April 2, the AGP too obtained the go-ahead from its state and district leaders.

Why has the AGP made this turnaround? Opinion polls in the media predicting party's rout may have triggered panic. The CPI(M)'s Das is convinced, "It's clearly a panic reaction on the part of the AGP, which might be unsure of its poll prospects." The CPI(M), he said, is no longer with the AGP-led alliance and would keep away from the Congress as well. The CPI and the Samajwadi Party echo this. "We don't want to have anything to do with a communal and reactionary party like the BJP," says the CPI's Gogoi, who has since quit the Mahanta Cabinet in protest against the tie-up. Samajwadi chief Mazumdar's predicament is worse because he is also an executive committee member of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind, a supposedly non-political Islamic organisation that wields considerable influence among the Muslims of the state. He has spoken of quitting the Cabinet and withdrawing support, but is not likely to do so before his scheduled meeting with party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Thirty per cent of Assam's 26 million people are Muslims. They have been a deciding factor in at least 45 of the state's 126 assembly constituencies. The AGP, which has 10 Muslim MLAs, obviously hopes the BJP will make up for the loss of minority votes.

The cogency of statistics (see graphic) made the AGP zero in on the BJP as its possible winning ally. The BJP's vote share has been showing a steady rise in Assam. From just 1.07 per cent in the 1985 assembly polls, it has grown to 29.84 per cent in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections.

In Delhi BJP leaders talk of a commonality of interests between the two parties going back to the Assam movement in the 1980s. No wonder Tarun Gogoi, president of the Congress' Assam unit, says, "The AGP and the BJP have always been two sides of the same coin. They have so much in common, like their stand on illegal migration."

There certainly is an anti-incumbency wave against the AGP-led government in the state. The rising unemployment problem-there are an estimated 1.7 million jobless youths in Assam-has led to discontent. Developmental activities have taken a backseat and the state's finances are in a shambles. As such Mahanta-who differentiates between an "electoral understanding" with the BJP and being "influenced by its ideology"-argues, "Having ties with a friendly government at the Centre will help Assam get the required economic assistance."

Central BJP leaders too point to the AGP alliance as following the "Andhra Pradesh model", a reference to the 1999 assembly poll in which the Telugu Desam won itself a re-election by tying up with Atal Bihari Vajpayee's party. The shift is swift, given that till the other day the same BJP spokesmen were cautioning against repeating the Karnataka error, where the BJP joined hands with J.H. Patel's discredited Janata Dal (U) government two years only to hand over victory to the Congress.

Actually, the prospects of the Congress, singly or in alliance, winning elections in Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal got the BJP leadership worried. With the Congress seemingly poised to win a three-way contest in Assam, Advani, said to be the mastermind behind the change of heart, figured the BJP had nothing to lose. Now it has to prove it can actually win.

-with Ashok Malik

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Looking Glass

Delhi Exhibition:
Ghislaine Aarsse Prins

Delhi Restaurant:
Art Diva Cafe

Mumbai Bar:
Starboard Bar