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VIEWPOINT: KAUTILYA
Light From The Census
Census 2001's first report raises many questions--some
pleasant, some disturbing
By Jairam Ramesh
The first results
of Census 2001 are out. There is both good news and bad news. Performance
on literacy has been truly extraordinary. Some states are doing extremely
well in reducing the rate of population growth. But the sex ratio in the
0-6 age-group, that is
the number of girls per 1,000 boys in that age range, is worsening.
The male literacy rate is about 76 per cent,
while that of females
is about 54 per cent. The female literacy rate (age seven and above) increased
by about 10 percentage points during 1981-91 but by almost 15 percentage
points during 1991-2001. The most outstanding increases in female literacy
rates during 1991-2001 were recorded in (i) Chhattisgarh from 27.5 per
cent to 52.4 per cent; (ii) Rajasthan from 20.4 per cent to 44.3 per cent;
(iii) Madhya Pradesh from 29.4 per cent to 50.3 per cent; and (iv) Orissa
from 34.7 per cent to 51 per cent. Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have
also shown a significant increase in female literacy.
In limiting population growth, the 1990s clearly
belonged to Andhra Pradesh just as the 1970s belonged to Kerala and the
1980s to Tamil Nadu. Going by present trends, Kerala's population may
stop growing by 2010-15, Tamil Nadu's by 2015-2020 and Andhra's by 2020-25.
What is even more remarkable about Andhra's performance is that it has
taken place at comparatively lower levels of female literacy. However,
counter-balancing this is the increase in population growth rates
in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana and Gujarat and the extremely sluggish
reduction in population growth rates recorded in Punjab, Jharkhand and
Rajasthan.
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Average annual exponential percentage
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What explains Andhra's success? Could it be NTR's
Rs 2-a-kilo rice scheme that provided almost universal food security cheaply
between 1983 and 1996? Could it be due to the successful implementation
of social development schemes and empowerment of women? Could it be due
to Andhra accounting for 30-40 per cent of all vasectomies and about 15
per cent of all tubectomies done in India? Has the mass media contributed
to raising an awareness? Or could it be due to rapid agricultural growth
and positive changes in the rural labour market?
The conventional wisdom is that India's north-east
is facing a demographic invasion. Population growth rates in Assam and
Tripura have fallen sharply and they are now lower than that of many northern
and western states. But Nagaland and Manipur have seen increasing growth
rates.
The overall sex ratio for India has risen from
927 females per 1,000 males in 1991 to 933 in 2001. In-migration of male
workers does explain in part why the overall sex ratio in Punjab, Haryana
and Gujarat has dipped, just as out-migration would explain partly why
Kerala, Uttaranchal, Chhattisgarh and the Azamgarh area of eastern Uttar
Pradesh have high sex ratios. Incidentally, tribal India has a much higher
sex ratio and this explains Chhattisgarh's sex ratio of 990 in 2001.
But the migration factor does not operate when
we look at the 0-6 sex ratio. This ratio for the country has been falling
steadily-from 976 in 1961 to 945 in 2001. The standard sex ratio at birth
is in the 943-952 range. What is shocking is that in India's most prosperous
state Punjab, the 0-6 sex ratio-which actually went up from 894 in 1961
to 908 in 1981-fell to 875 in 1991 and further to 793 in 2001. Haryana
too has shown a similar trend with its 0-6 sex ratio falling from 902
in 1981 to 820 in 2001. In 2001, Chandigarh's 0-6 sex ratio is 845, Delhi's
is 865 and Himachal Pradesh's is 897. Could rich Punjab-Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi-Himachal
be the sex-selective abortion zone of India?
All 17 districts of Punjab have low 0-6 sex
ratios, with Gurdaspur, Kapurthala, Fatehgarh Saheb, Patiala, Bhatinda,
Mansa and Amritsar being particularly bad. Punjab is a paradox. Female
life expectancy at birth has gone up sharply from 56.8 years during 1970-75
to 68.6 years in 1992-96 whereas that for males has increased from 59
years to 66.4 years over the same period. In fact, at age 50, female life
expectancy in Punjab is around 28.8 years, almost on a par with that in
Kerala. Does it mean that Punjab's society dislikes baby girls but when
these infants do survive they survive well?
The Census Commissioner deserves kudos for serving
a rich sociological menu so soon after the headcount two months ago. The
real issue is what lessons the states draw from the data and what action
they will take.
(The author is with the Congress party. These
are his personal views.)
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