Two Winners And A Photo Finish
According to the INDIA TODAY-ORG-MARG opinion poll, there will be clear winners in two states, but a tight finish in a third.

The Last Rampage
To offset
J. Jayalalitha's slight edge, a pugnacious M. Karunanidhi gives it his all in what is his final electoral campaign.

The Sixth Sense
A mercurial Mamata Banerjee vs a dependable Buddhadev Bhattacharya. The mismatch leaves the Left Front with a premonition of victory.

Secular Stake
Even as the Church makes a blatant move to play a more political role in the state, the CPI(M) nominates a priest to woo minorities.

One Man Barmy
India's apex social sciences facilitating body is rocked by civil war: the chairman says he is being opposed by both RSS ideologues and leftist academics.

Changing Order
An ageing profile and a frustrated officer corps leads the force to consider VRS and restructuring.

Liquid Asset
The Rs 700-crore industry has attracted many players. Now, purity will decide who stays in business.

Board Of No Control
Tax authorities say the BCCI spends more money on meetings than on matches.

COVER STORY: INDIA TODAY-ORG-MARG POLL

Two Winners And A Photo Finish

By Swapan Dasgupta

For the past five years or so, elections in India-for either the Lok Sabha or state assemblies-have begun to resemble presidential contests. Though local factors still matter, the trend is towards choosing a leader to rule. The assembly polls of 2001 correspond to this pattern, with Mamata Banerjee taking on Buddhadev Bhattacharya in West Bengal, A.K. Antony ranged against V.S. Achuthanandan in Kerala and M. Karunanidhi and a disqualified J. Jayalalitha engaged in another epic war in Tamil Nadu.

This blend of personality and party, combined with fluctuating alliances, has made election forecasting even more daunting. Particularly when the margins are narrow enough to fall within a
2-3 per cent margin of error.

In Kerala, the India Today-ORG-MARG opinion poll can predict a fierce anti-incumbency wave that is set to drive the CPI(M)-led LDF out of power. However, there is no such anger in either West Bengal or Tamil Nadu. Here, the competitive draw of rival personalities plus the complex arithmetic of coalitions hold the key. Which is why the Left Front (lf) in Bengal has reason to expect another five-year term to add to its unbroken 24 years in office. The Trinamool Congress-Congress alliance is just 3 per cent away from the lf. Which implies that Mamata has covered half the 1996 deficit. But aggregate statistics conceal the reality of the continuing domination of the red flag in rural Bengal. Mamata may sweep in urban and suburban Bengal but she has to reduce the gap in the villages to oust the lf. The poll suggests that had she succeeded in forging a "mahajot" which included the BJP, the Left may have been vanquished. Fighting alone, the BJP may end up as the spoiler.

Ironically, Mamata's combative image isn't proving an asset this time, with the chief minister's popularity being higher in urban areas. Jyoti Basu compliments the lf in rural areas but his successor is in the process of overshadowing him. Mamata appears to have lost out in not having the endorsement of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee this time. His replacement, Sonia Gandhi, doesn't have the same appeal in the state and can't add value to the Mamata campaign. Mamata's possible consolation prize may be the fact that after 2001, the CPI(M) may not have a majority, a development that could have implications on governance in the state.

A similar trend prevails in Tamil Nadu. Here Karunanidhi overshadows Jayalalitha in personal popularity, particularly among the youth, the educated voter and Muslims. The AIADMK leader is the choice of women, the illiterate, the less educated sections and the Dalits. Unfortunately for Karunanidhi, a presidential lead does not translate into advantage in terms of seats. The arithmetic of coalitions put the AIADMK-led alliance at an initial advantage, more so after Vaiko's MDMK walked out of the DMK front. Jayalalitha is clinging on to that lead but very tenuously.

Since the bulk of the sampling in Tamil Nadu was carried out before Jayalalitha's nomination papers were rejected, the poll hasn't fully reflected its impact. But the slim 2 per cent vote that separates the two alliances suggests that neither the AIADMK nor the DMK will secure a working majority on its own. If the DMK succeeds in further narrowing the gap-a possibility, given the doubts over Jayalalitha's ability to be chief minister-Tamil Nadu may well see a hung assembly, making it possible for smaller outfits to reconsider their options.

That's in the future. For the moment, voters have chosen to keep both politicians and pollsters on tenterhooks.

MetroScape

Bond Free
The Savoy in Mussoorie must be the only hotel, apart from the Raffles in Singapore, to have a thing about writers. So, it was quite kismet when publisher Pramod Kapoor of Roli Books and author Namita Gokhale, who has an imprint with him, hosted the Ruskin Bond Festschrift—a Writers' Retreat in honour of that gentle Indian Roald Dahl, Ruskin Bond.
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