Two Winners And A Photo Finish
According to the INDIA TODAY-ORG-MARG opinion poll, there will be clear winners in two states, but a tight finish in a third.

The Last Rampage
To offset
J. Jayalalitha's slight edge, a pugnacious M. Karunanidhi gives it his all in what is his final electoral campaign.

The Sixth Sense
A mercurial Mamata Banerjee vs a dependable Buddhadev Bhattacharya. The mismatch leaves the Left Front with a premonition of victory.

Secular Stake
Even as the Church makes a blatant move to play a more political role in the state, the CPI(M) nominates a priest to woo minorities.

One Man Barmy
India's apex social sciences facilitating body is rocked by civil war: the chairman says he is being opposed by both RSS ideologues and leftist academics.

Changing Order
An ageing profile and a frustrated officer corps leads the force to consider VRS and restructuring.

Liquid Asset
The Rs 700-crore industry has attracted many players. Now, purity will decide who stays in business.

Board Of No Control
Tax authorities say the BCCI spends more money on meetings than on matches.

FROM THE EDITOR IN CHIEF

Ever since we started opinion polls in India way back in 1980, successfully predicting the return of Indira Gandhi to power at the Centre, India Today has set both the pace and the standard for gauging the mind of the voter. Over the years, the defini-tive India Today polls have become national talking points and exercises in credibility. And unlike quick-fix polls that many indulge in these days, interpreting opinion of a few hundred to reflect the mood of the nation, we have worked with major polling agencies to ensure opinion polls based on scientific models drawing from a vast representative universe.

For an opinion poll on this week's assembly elections, India Today commissioned ORG-MARG to reach out to over 20,000 voters in 74 assembly constituencies spread over Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala. Assam and Pondicherry will also hold assembly elections on May 10. But our poll focused on three states because of their significance to national politics. In Bengal, it will be the first acid test for Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee after her dramatic breakaway from the NDA coalition in March. In Tamil Nadu, a major NDA ally DMK, led by Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi is up against arch-rival J. Jayalalitha. And in Kerala results will decide the bargaining power of the left parties in Central politics. Moreover, there is the overlay of the future of the Congress, allied as it is with the challengers in all three states.
The findings are a telling comment. The forecast for Kerala is emphatic: a clear win for the UDF coalition and the end of Left rule. The high-profile contests in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu will be more closely matched. In Bengal, the Left Front led by Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhatta-charya is projected to win between 150-165 seats, ahead of Mamata's Trinamool and allies, with a range of 120-135. In Tamil Nadu, the other fiery contest, the poll projects Jayalalitha's alliance (120-130 seats) in a photofinish with Karunanidhi's (105-115).

Of course, all polls come with a statutory warning: they can and often do go wrong. But they are still the only scientific way to predict the outcome of elections. And there is little doubt that these bitterly fought elections are crucial.

(Aroon Purie)

MetroScape

Bond Free
The Savoy in Mussoorie must be the only hotel, apart from the Raffles in Singapore, to have a thing about writers. So, it was quite kismet when publisher Pramod Kapoor of Roli Books and author Namita Gokhale, who has an imprint with him, hosted the Ruskin Bond Festschrift—a Writers' Retreat in honour of that gentle Indian Roald Dahl, Ruskin Bond.
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