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STATES: TAMIL NADU
Mother's Day
How Karunanidhi's Stalinist methods played an important
role in Jayalalitha's massive victory and in the humiliating finale of
his own dynastic ambition
By Arun Ram
When the electronic
voting machines blinked on that fateful Sunday, they were actually signalling
a devastating landslide. In no time the ground beneath Muthuvel Karunanidhi's
feet disappeared. Soaring over the debris of the DMK was the triumphant
czarina of the AIADMK, Dr Puratchi Thalaivi J. Jayalalitha. And Governor
Fathima Beevi acted faster than the voting machines-the coronation was
swift and smooth. The Jayalalitha fan was exuberant: "The King is
dead. Long live the Queen!"
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BACK TO THE FUTURE: Jayalalitha shares the victory with AIADMK
supporters
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May 13 brought in the happiest Mother's Day the
AIADMK ever had in several years. Amma's coalition bagged 196 of the 234
seats, making a mockery of every prediction about a cliffhanger. In her
first post-victory statement Jayalalitha said it was a vote against the
Karunanidhi government's bad administration. It was more than that. Everybody,
perhaps even Jayalalitha herself, failed to recognise a groundswell of
sympathy and anti-incumbency feeling. For during the campaign her main
rhetorical target was not the government but the ruling party. Much before
her electoral disqualification, Jayalalitha said, "There are people
at work trying to stop me from contesting." The moment she was disqualified,
she named the people: "It's the handiwork of Karunanidhi to make
his son M.K. Stalin the chief minister." And that seems to have paid
off.
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Karunanidhi's
big mistake was projecting stalin as his heir. People were not ready
to accept the son.
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Karunanidhi admits that the sympathy factor was
at work. "I consider the verdict a reward for my government's achievements.
People have somehow believed Jayalalitha's allegation that we had conspired
to bar her from contesting. Even after the Election Commission announced
that it was a legal decision, the false propaganda has won," he said.
The DMK's overuse of the corruption charges didn't work. The voters exhibited
a kind of corruption fatigue. Sun TV continued to beam Jayalalitha's legendary
footwear and wardrobe collection, but it boomeranged. For Jayalalitha
went around the state wearing no jewellery, further reinforcing her image
as a victim of state-sponsored harassment.
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Hard Truths
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# More than 90% of PMK votes were transferred
to its ally AIADMK but almost half the BJP votes didn't go to its
partner DMK.
# With 4.4% votes, the MDMK ensured the
defeat of DMK in 25 seats but failed to win even one.
# All Dalit parties, on whom the DMK depended,
performed badly.
# 16 DMK ministers among losers.
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However, Karunanidhi's biggest mistake was projecting
son Stalin as his successor. Despite Stalin's satisfactory performance
as the Chennai mayor, the results show that people were not ready to accept
him as his father's successor. He won this time by a margin of 7,000 votes
against his 1996 margin of 44,870 votes.
That the DMK fared badly even in the urban constituencies,
including its perceived fortress of Chennai, reveals that the Amma wave
was everywhere. In fact, nothing has been going the DMK way ever since
the PMK's desertion to join the Jayalalitha camp. Then at the last minute
the MDMK walked out, complaining of unfair treatment of alliance partners.
Former health minister Arcot N. Veerasamy, one of the few DMK ministers
who survived the rout, disputes that the MDMK was responsible for the
defeat of the DMK. "Even if they had been with us, the result would
not have been too different," he reasons.
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THE SIZE OF THE AIADMK'S VICTORY
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TOTAL
SEATS
234 |
1996
Assembly election |
1999
Parliamentary election |
2001
Assembly election |
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Seats |
Vote% |
Assembly
Segment Led
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Vote% |
Seats |
Vote% |
| AIADMK+Allies |
56 |
43.8 |
109 |
57.1 |
193 |
50.0 |
| DMK+Allies |
174 |
43.9 |
100 |
32.3 |
37 |
39.0 |
| Others |
4 |
12.3 |
25 |
10.6 |
4 |
11.0 |
| All alliances are as on date |
* Vote percentage for 2001 are provisional
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Also, TMC rebel P. Chidambaram, who the DMK hoped
would neutralise the Vaiko effect, was not of much help. "I definitely
didn't expect such a result. The people are simply inexplicable. Such
a verdict is not good for the state," he told INDIA TODAY. The Dalit
parties, on whom the DMK depended heavily, too performed badly. The Dalit
Panthers of India leader Tirumavalavan is the only Dalit leader to have
won.
The TMC, the PMK and the Congress have made
major gains by riding piggyback on Amma. The PMK, which was routed in
its self-proclaimed stronghold of Pondicherry, got 20 seats in Tamil Nadu.
The TMC won 23 seats, the prize its leader G.K. Moopanar got for climbing
down from his dream of Kamaraj rule to the reality of the MGR legacy.
While the Congress improved its tally from zero to seven, the CPI(M) bagged
six seats and the CPI five. Though their vote share has come down, the
left parties cannot be unhappy with the results.
Back in the saddle, Jayalalitha is already talking
administration. "The Public Distribution System is in a shambles.
The new Government will revive it. Closed spinning mills will be reopened.
Safe drinking water will be my priority," she said after being sworn
in as chief minister. Karunanidhi's last battle has become Jayalalitha's
last laugh.
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