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WORLD: BRITISH ELECTIONS
The Asia Majors
The votes of an estimated 1.8 million ethnic Asians may determine the
outcome in at least 100 constituencies in the coming elections
By Manjushri Mitra in London
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| THINKING LOCAL: Parmjit Dhanda, Labour candidate
for Gloucester, with a shipyard dock worker |
Nobody seems to
be specially courting the Asian vote for the British general elections
coming up on June 8. The last time round, in 1997, the major political
parties had come out with special election broadcasts for Asian tv networks.
Not this time though.
Why? The change, it would seem, is in the Asian
voter himself. He is no longer seeking Asian candidates or voting for
Asian issues. This time, he is interested in precisely the same issues
as other voters. That is education, health, the economy and law and order-which
are proving key priorities in these elections across the board, irrespective
of racial background.
Going by opinion polls, the Labour Government
is galloping ahead. In spite of a rough ride recently over petrol prices
and foot and mouth disease, the latest polls indicate a 19-point Labour
lead. And expected to contribute to Labour's vote bank are Britain's estimated
1.8 million Asians, by far the largest ethnic minority, representing 3
per cent of the electorate. Going by past elections, Labour support is
strongest in the Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities (75 per cent, compared
with 66 per cent of Indians).
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| A polling booth in an Asian locality |
It was during the 1980s that the Labour Party
discovered it could no longer take the ethnic vote for granted. Large
numbers of Asians, particularly Indians, had turned to the Conservative
Party under Thatcherism and its avowed support for business and entrepreneurs.
Among Asians, Conservative support is strongest in the A/B social group
where it rises to 35 per cent.
Dr Shamit Saggar of the University of London
says, "There is a new generation of Asians active in the Conservative
Party. Until now though, the party has had little credibility in terms
of ethnic representation, and currently has nothing to show for it."
Saggar's research also reveals that voter registration and turnout is
high amongst British Asian voters-a fact that political parties should
heed. In the last election 97 per cent of white voters were registered
to vote, compared with the same figure for Indians, 90 per cent for Pakistanis
and 91 per cent for Bangladeshis. When it came to turnout, Indians scored
the highest at 82 per cent, followed by 79 per cent for white voters,
76 per cent for Pakistanis and 74 per cent for Bangladeshis. In the elderly
Asian population, the turnout rates were even higher, with 87.2 per cent
of Asians aged 60 and above voting compared with 86.6 per cent of white
elderly voters against an average actual voter turnout of 71.5 per cent
in the 1997 general election.
A Mori/Zee TV poll in 1997 had indicated that
only 9 per cent of Asian voters (15 per cent in the over-45 age group)
would be swayed to change their vote for an Asian candidate. So if the
Asian candidate is coming up now, it's all on his own.
A handful of them stand a chance of making a
debut in the next Parliament. The strongest contenders are two Labour
prospective parliamentary candidates (PPC) from "winnable seats",
as a result of the incumbents' decisions not to run. On the Conservative
side, serious money rests with Shailesh Vara who's running for Northampton
South, a seat Labour wrenched from the Tories last time.
"I'm confident, but not complacent. I'm
not taking anything, anyone or any vote for granted," says the London
solicitor-cum-Tory candidate. Vara is wise to be circumspect, feels Ashok
Viswanathan, of pressure group Operation Black Vote (OBV). "We held
meetings in Northampton South in January, and although it's traditionally
Conservative, we didn't find much evidence to support a significant swing
away from Labour," he says.
However, a swing of less than 0.7 per cent from
Labour to the Tories would secure Vara's chances, according to research
by the BBC. One of the Conservative Party's rising stars, and certainly
the great Tory-Asian hope, Vara was tipped to do well in the last general
election. Learning the ropes as vice-chairman of the Hampstead and Highgate
Conservative Association, Vara has worked on various local and national
party committees.
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