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THE NATION: KASHMIR

Pakistan
The General Is Hemmed In

Pakistan Chief Executive General Pervez Musharraf's reply to the invitation by Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee for a summit in Delhi said it all: "The root cause of tension between our two countries is the unresolved Jammu and Kashmir dispute." It was clear Kashmir would be the focus for the Pakistan side. As was the fact that Musharraf's ability to manoeuvre at home was limited.

As he sits at his desk at Army House in Rawalpindi drawing up proposals for the talks, Musharraf knows that playing the international statesman is not like running an obedient army. Already, critics at home, particularly from the hardline militant groups fighting in Kashmir, are queuing up to condemn the visit. Syed Salahuddin, chief of Hizbul Mujahideen, the largest militant group fighting in Kashmir, said this week that the talks were an "eyewash". The Lashkar-e-Toiba's Hafiz Muhammad Saeed said India was secretly preparing for a large-scale war. Both insisted there would be no halt to their guerrilla campaigns.

The jehadi forces cannot be easily ignored. Pakistan remains a fragile, restless society in which support for the decade-long guerrilla campaign in Kashmir remains one of the few unifying features. Even the mainstream religious parties are wary of negotiations. "The talks will be meaningless if blood continues to spill on the streets of Kashmir," says Ghafoor Ahmed, deputy secretary-general of Jamaat-e Islami, the most organised religious-political group in the country. The general knows he must bring these players on his side if he is to have any chance of opening genuine negotiations with Vajpayee over the coming months.

However, since the coup Musharraf has becoming increasingly isolated at home and with the economy still struggling his popularity is on the wane. Although he frequently bows to the religious right, the mullahs have a deep-seated fear of his urbane liberalism. And both militant groups and mainstream Kashmiri politicians have been quick to remind him of his promise to bring Kashmiris into any dialogue with Delhi.

Other politicians in Pakistan, angered by sweeping arrests at protest rallies over recent months, will be reluctant to fall in behind Musharraf. Although both the Muslim League and the Pakistan People's Party have backed the summit, this fickle support may quickly turn to criticism if they see Musharraf's credibility improving. Senior Pakistani officials accept that little of substance is likely to come out of the first round of talks. A joint statement and the promise to meet again would be regarded as a major success.

Yet the regime knows that any significant step forward in later negotiations will demand painful compromises on Kashmir. At the moment, Musharraf is not prepared to make any.

-Rory McCarthy in Islamabad

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