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COVER STORY: NEPAL
India's Response
Walking The Tightrope
It is a pragmatic approach: be supportive and avoid
an anti-India flare-up
The delicate Indian
balancing act on Nepal began soon after the Narayanhity Palace massacre
with a hastily convened meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS).
It was apparent by then that the late King Birendra's brother, Gyanendra,
was set to rule Nepal and had the support of the army. So the CCS adopted
a pragmatic approach: avoid direct interference, extend support to the
Nepalese monarchy and the ruling G.P. Koirala Government, and prevent
an anti-India flare-up. This, apparently, will be Delhi's guideline on
Kathmandu till the political unrest in the country subsides and King Gyanendra
consolidates himself.
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| FRIENDS: Prime Minister Koirala (left);
the royal couple with President Narayanan, Vajpayee and Jaswant Singh
at this year's Republic Day function in Delhi |
The caution is understandable. India and Nepal
share a porous 1,690 km border. Sandwiched between two Asian giants, the
strategically situated Himalayan kingdom has been ravaged since 1996 by
a Maoist insurgency that threatens to sweep across Indian states. Of late
Nepal has become the launchpad for Pakistan's ISI and the Mumbai underworld.
After the hijacking of the Indian Airlines Flight IC-814 from Kathmandu,
the Hrithik Roshan riots and the expanding ISI network in Nepal, India
no longer takes its ties with the kingdom at face value.
The Indian assessment also takes into account
Nepal's growing ties with Beijing. The last state dignitary King Birendra
received was Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji. India's attempt to shore
up Nepal's beleaguered monarchy and fractured polity is also meant to
bolster its own defences. A.R. Deo, former ambassador to Nepal, says,
"India must take all measures to protect its interests as a systemic
collapse in Nepal can heighten Delhi's threat perception."
India's view is that the political turmoil in
Nepal comes at a time when the Maoists are trying to forge a link with
the ISI. This game plan was reportedly revealed during the arrest of Pakistani
diplomat Mohammed Arshad Cheema from a guest house of Satchel Engineering,
an ISI front company involved in road construction in Nepal. Intelligence
inputs indicate that Cheema, who was caught with 25 kg of RDX, was planning
to sell the explosive to Maoist guerrillas. India is also concerned about
the use of Nepalese territory as a transit point by the Mumbai underworld
with its Pakistani connection. Other irritants such as the Indo-Nepal
Trade and Transit Treaty, coming up for review in December, and the Kalapani
border dispute also figure in India's calculations.
India's calibrated response is designed to raise
the comfort levels of King Gyanendra so that he can initiate steps to
restore law and order in his kingdom. Indian intelligence assessments
about the new king are mixed. Gyanendra is said to be a "monarchist"
and had apparently nurtured "anti-India" sentiments when Nepal
adopted a democratic constitution in 1990. But he had also forged links
with businessmen involved in Indo-Nepal border trade. Gyanendra was credited
with the shrewdness of his father Mahendra, who took the public posture
of standing up to India, and the charm of his grandfather Tribhuvan, who
overthrew the powerful Ranas with Delhi's help.
While King Gyanendra and his Government try
to stabilise Nepal, India has adopted a posture of "action without
words". India is constantly in touch with the royalty and the political
establishment and is rendering all possible assistance to Kathmandu. Bekh
Bahadur Thapa, Nepalese ambassador to India, says, "The unfortunate
change notwithstanding, the Nepalese royalty has always adopted a mature
approach-from the first king three centuries ago to the present monarch.
The extensive Indo-Nepalese relations are steeped in history and the strong
thread of bilateral ties will continue in perpetuity." Delhi and
Kathmandu, though, know just how fragile that thread can be at times.
-Shishir Gupta
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METRO TODAY
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