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VIEWPOINT: KAUTILYA
Bushfires Over Kyoto Protocol
In another display of aggressive unilateralism, son Bush
junks father
By Jairam Ramesh
On June 11, President George W. Bush announced
that the US had rejected the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty which
had been finalised on December 11, 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. This treaty requires
39 industrialised and ex-communist nations to reduce, according to specific
targets and timetables, their emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute
to global warming.
Energy from the sun heats the earth's surface.
A part of that energy is radiated back into space by the earth. Some of
this outgoing energy is trapped by clouds and by atmospheric gases that
retain heat like a greenhouse, an enclosure of glass panels in which plants
are grown. This is why the gases that trap the earth's outgoing radiation
are called greenhouse gases (GHGs). These GHGs act as a blanket and if
they did not exist, temperatures would be much lower than they are now.
But when the atmospheric concentration of GHGs increases beyond a level,
temperatures begin to rise. Over the past century, the average land surface
temperature appears to have risen by 0.45-0.6 degrees Celsius. Worldwide
sea levels have risen by about 15-20 cm. Rainfall patterns have also changed.
Water vapour is the most abundant greenhouse
gas. Six others are covered by the Kyoto Protocol. Three are naturally
occurring-carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, all of which are
released into the atmosphere by the burning of solid waste and fossil
fuels like coal, oil and natural gas. Methane emissions also result from
the decomposition of organic wastes, rice cultivation and the raising
of livestock. The other three, ironically, are the synthetic substitutes
for the chlorofluorocarbons that deplete the protective ozone layer around
the earth. Ozone is also a greenhouse gas.
 The
US has about 5 per cent of the world's population but accounts for about
a quarter of the world's man-made GHGs. China with about 16 per cent of
the world's population emits about 14 per cent of the GHGs while India
with about 15 per cent of the world's population contributes about 4 per
cent of emissions. While junking Kyoto, President Bush made a pointed
reference to the fact that two of the world's top emitters, China and
India, are exempted. The Kyoto Protocol indeed imposes no obligations
on developing countries whereas during the commitment period 2008-2012
Europe has to reduce emissions by 7 per cent below the 1990 level, the
US also by 7 per cent and Japan by 6 per cent. Developing countries get
in through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which allows developed
countries to enter into cooperative ventures to reduce emissions in the
developing countries. These investments could include environmentally-clean
power plants, renewable energy and forestry projects and improved industrial
processes. The developed countries can claim "credit" against
these projects which would go towards calculating their own emission reductions.
The CDM has proved controversial and India has been arguing that it helps
the developed countries to escape direct responsibility for emission reductions.
In fact, India is the only major country yet to sign the Kyoto Protocol.
This will hurt us.
The reason why developing countries are not
called upon to have quantitative targets for reductions is simply because
global warming so far is the outcome of what has happened in the developed
countries. That is why the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change signed
in May 1992 by, among others, the US under President George Bush, talks
about sharing sacrifices fairly among countries in accordance with their
"common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities".
The protocol cannot come into force unless it
is ratified by enough countries that account for at least 55 per cent
of the industrialised world's carbon dioxide emissions. With the US out,
this means that Europe, Japan, Russia and a few others like Ukraine will
necessarily have to ratify. There is no formal deadline but if the ratification
is not completed before September 2002 when the next global eco-meet will
be held in Johannesburg, South Africa, the protocol is as good as dead.
For the time being, brave noises are emanating from Europe about its commitment
to Kyoto.
While lending support to Europe to rescue Kyoto,
India better get prepared for a new round of negotiations and this time
it will not escape without making quantitative commitments. In the 1990s,
India's GHG output grew by about 5.4 per cent annually, which is about
five times the American rate. Before long we will also be called upon
to sustain economic growth with a lower rate of growth of greenhouse gases.
Two developing countries, Argentina and Kazakhstan, have already announced
their intention to take on emission reduction targets during 2008-2012.
We cannot hide behind moral posturing.
(The author is with the Congress party. These
are his personal views.)
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