The Luckies
The Labelled, Urban, Chilled, Kicked-with-life Indians are here. The most fortunate ever if only for the choices before it, this generation is glib, global, cocky and informed-and chases success with an awesome spending power.

Wages Of Peace
The Centre's decision to extend its cease-fire with the NSCN(I-M)
to three other north-east states leads to large-scale violence
in Manipur.

Man Of Letters
Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik's skill with the quill has the PMO busy acknowledging his missives. And on occasion agreeing to his demands.

Civil Lines
Pervez Musharraf's assuming the office of President is being seen as a bid to legitimise his position. A look at what this means in the context of his India visit.

Peace In Pipeline
India wants to put on Iran the onus of ensuring safe transit of gas.

DIPLOMACY: INDO-IRANIAN GAS PROJECT

Cllimbdown From The Lofty Position

For India, the decision to explore the onshore option represents a climbdown from the lofty position that it took after the Kargil conflict. While Iran has always been dismissive of the deep-sea option, India was keen that the pipeline be laid not only outside the exclusive economic zone but also even beyond the continental shelf of Pakistan for security reasons. In fact, in the first joint committee meeting held in August last year, Delhi had even organised a presentation by the Naval Hydrographic Survey for the Iranian delegation, giving broad details of underwater bathymetry and physical features of the sea bed.

An Italian company Saipem in its presentation to the Indo-Iran Joint Committee in November 2000 maintained that it was technologically feasible to lay the pipeline at the required ocean depth of 3,500 m. The company representatives informed the committee that they were already involved in the "Bluestream Project" that envisaged laying a pipeline from Russia to Turkey across the Black Sea at a depth of 2,150 m.

During the joint committee meeting Delhi told Teheran it would be interested in the land option only if Iran stood guarantee for the delivery of gas to the Indian border. Keeping the Indian sensitivities on the onshore option in mind, Teheran has decided that the core contract would be between India and Iran for supply of gas. Iran would then have a separate arrangement with Pakistan on the security and transit aspects. The overland pipeline may also include a provision for Pakistan to tap the pipeline at Multan for its own need.

If economic feasibility of the pipeline was the only criterion, then the onshore option is only a third of the cost of the offshore option. Fully aware that the offshore pipeline route will be more expensive than the land option, Delhi wants the Snamprogetti study to also confirm whether the deep-sea corridor is cheaper than importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) through sea-tankers. Anyhow, the final destination of the gas will be the fertiliser and power units in energy deficient northern India.

In fact, it is the growing energy demand in the north that has prompted India to scour the gas energy reserves in its neighbourhood rather than remain dependent on crude oil supplies from West Asia. India's natural gas consumption has risen from 0.5 trillion cubic feet (TCF) in 1995 to 1.3 TCF this year. Estimates are that it will touch 1.9 TCF by 2005. With Myanmar's proven gas reserves committed to Thailand and Bangladesh still to settle the internal debate on the supply of gas to India, Delhi has little option but to look to Teheran. Iran has the second-largest reserves of natural gas in the world. Its total reserves are estimated at 812 TCF and should last at least 500 years.

While Iran wants to sell gas to catch the "growth momentum", India is looking forward to a dedicated gas pipeline in addition to the cost-effectiveness of the different modes of transfer. At present, India's plans centre mainly on importing LNG through sea tankers.

Although it is still unclear how the pipeline politics will play out, by retaining the offshore option, India has indicated that it wants to drive a hard bargain and not hand the "peace pipeline" to Pakistan on a platter.

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