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NEIGHBOURS: PAKISTAN
Army May Curb Religious Extremism
In the best case
scenario, Musharraf's troops may end up like the Turkish army, the principal
modernising and secularising influence in a democratic polity, one that
has stepped in on occasion to curb religious extremism.
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FEMININE FIRE: PPP supporters protest against Musharraf becoming
president
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All of that, of course, is in the future. After
meeting Vajpayee in the city of the Taj Mahal-three hotels, the Jaypee
Palace, the Mughal Sheraton and the Amar Vilas are being discussed as
probable venues-he will visit the Dargah at Ajmer. What will he pray for
at this Sufi shrine?
Just after he took oath, Musharraf said, "My
major concern is the country's political stability and harmony."
Another priority for the general-cum-president is Pakistan's economy.
The country's international debt is a staggering $37 billion. The banking
sector is close to collapse. The GDP is growing at 2.6 per cent rather
than the expected 4.5 per cent. Double-digit inflation and drought conditions
in parts of the country don't make life any better for the 40 million
Pakistanis residing in abject poverty. A week ago, economic exigencies
forced Musharraf to cut Pakistan's defence budget by 27.4 per cent.
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THE
TRADE-OFF To win US approval, the new president knows he has to
silence jehadis.
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Such pragmatism may not be agreeable to hardline
generals who want to continue to support the militancy in Kashmir. Their
logic is that the strategy of "bleeding India" and the "success
of jehad" have brought Delhi to the negotiating table. "These
hawks in uniform," points out Waseem, "also include military
officers who support the Taliban's cause."
That a conflict was brewing became apparent
when Musharraf's Interior Minister Lt-General (retd) Moinuddin Haider
said recently, "Religious extremism has adversely affected our national
interests and there is a dire need to differentiate between jehad and
terrorism." His boss too asked religious demagogues to curb their
rhetoric. Musharraf went so far as to call the Jamaat-e-Islami chief "unbalanced".
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WRONG TRACK: Rail workers demonstrating
against Musharraf's economic measures
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Sources in the Pakistani Interior Ministry hint
that the tough talk should not be taken at face value. Rather than a black-and-white
affair, Musharraf's equation with the jehadis is a series of grey areas.
There are suggestions from within the Government that the jehadis have
been asked to "behave" for "the time being". While
this will help Musharraf diplomatically-more than impress India, he will
be keen to win over the the US and the West-he will not take punitive
action against the jehadi organisations nor touch their sources of funding.
Pakistani sources also argue that Musharraf
sees the carrot-and-stick policy on the jehadis as the way out from an
immediate economic crisis. As part of the alleged "deal", the
military Government will, notwithstanding its public statements, turn
a blind eye to the jehadis' activities. In return, petro-dollars from
Saudi sheikhs-with whom the jehadis presumably have a certain leverage-will
bail out the cash-strapped Pakistani Government.
That the jehadi groups are in no mood to listen
to the Musharraf Government's "request" that they hold their
horses is apparent enough. In an interview to Aaj Tak, Mohamad Hafiz Sayed-the
Lashkar-e-Toiba's chief who lives just outside Islamabad-said, "India
and Pakistan have always engaged in talks but the result has always been
zero. We don't have any faith in these talks anymore. This is just a drama
to influence world opinion. If they want to talk, let them do it but our
jehad will continue till India pulls out its troops."
Given this backdrop, Musharraf-assuming of course
his intentions are absolutely above board-will only be able to go half
the distance with India. For Vajpayee, who recently told a retired Indian
diplomat that he knows "how to handle generals and got along with
even Zia", that will be a sobering thought as he prepares for Agra.
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