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STATES: UTTAR PRADESH
Out Of Luck Now
Charged with upsetting the BJP's caste equations
and hamstrung by ministers he inherited, Rajnath needs to go beyond voter-friendly
symbolism
By Ashok Malik in Lucknow with Subhash Mishra
In many ways, the
vast expanse of land called Uttar Pradesh is the world's largest gossip
zone. Two weeks ago, as the first monsoon rains hit Lucknow, the city
was abuzz with stories of the "mafia panchayat" convened at
the office of Sports Minister Raghuraj Pratap Singh (aka Raja Bhaiyya).
The turn of phrase was a takeoff on the many "panchayats"-for
farmers, traders, teachers and so on-that Chief Minister Rajnath Singh
has been organising to woo special interest groups in the run up to the
Vidhan Sabha election expected in February 2002.
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The announcement-a-day routine hasn't taken Rajnath
Singh far |
In the sort of farzee (bogus) logic explicable
only to those in the cow belt the "mafia panchayat" was seen
as part of the great pre-poll effort. Its host, a strapping young Rajput
eager to help fellow clansman Rajnath, was asked why he had invited alleged
criminals to his office. If he had to mobilise such elements, surely he
could have done so outside a government building. Raja Bhaiyya looked
confused, "But why shouldn't I invite them to my office? Most of
them are MLAs and MLCs anyway." It sounds bizarre but in Uttar Pradesh
it's called politics. It is also entirely in keeping with Rajnath's complex
blueprint for his return to the chief minister's office.
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The BJP hopes Ajit's Jat magic will work
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In the 403-member House, the BJP has 158 MLAs.
It rules with the help of 53 other legislators, most of them bribed with
a place in the 86-member ministry. In the 1999 Lok Sabha election, the
BJP led in 129 segments, conceding first place to Mulayam Singh Yadav's
Samajwadi Party (SP), ahead in 135. By October 2000, when Rajnath became
the BJP's third chief minister-after Kalyan Singh and Ram Prakash Gupta-the
party's leadership was openly talking about "75-85 seats". Today,
despite the chief minister's optimism of winning "170 seats and more",
a cold internal assessment gives the BJP roughly 100 seats, maybe less.
In contrast, the SP is seen at the 140-seat level.
With a hung Assembly guaranteed, the single-largest
party will have to resort to manic mergers and acquisitions. A prime target
is likely to be the BSP, a party with a committed vote from the Jatavs-the
biggest Dalit sub-group-and, in the words of a BJP minister, "the
best party to be in before elections and an even better party to be in
afterwards". They say in Lucknow that you can "buy a BSP ticket
for an assembly seat for Rs 20 lakh". Should you get elected, "recovering
your investment" in the lucrative season of government formation
will be a cinch.
Rajnath probably knows the rules of this game,
which is why his refrain is "Jo bhi ho, sarkar hum hi banayenge (Whatever
happens, we'll form the government)." As the first step he has to
ensure the BJP, and not the SP, emerges as the single-largest party. So
Rajnath's immediate goal is to take the party from possible double digits
to respectable three figures, "from less than 100" to "at
least 130 seats".
He has a two-pronged strategy. First, project
himself as an able administrator, a "doer". Second, add the
Jats to a Rajput-led caste combination to make up for any loss to the
33.6 per cent vote the BJP received in 1996.
As chief minister, Rajnath has followed an announcement
a day routine-higher wages for teachers, better prices for farmers, a
new airport in Greater Noida, a grant to Arabic and Persian scholars.
The foolproof Kumbh Mela in Allahabad earlier this year enhanced his image.
Even so, a secretary in the chief minister's office admits, "In the
past two months, a negative feeling has been detected." Rajnath's
advocates argue eight months is not enough time to redress the non-performance
of two previous chief ministers.
If the honeymoon is over, the ruling coalition's
squabbling is responsible. Remarks Urban Development Minister Lalji Tandon,
blithely deploying bulldozers in an election year: "The BJP worker
can forgive anything but not leaders fighting."
Sample what has been happening.
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