Mission Kashmir Having consolidated his position at home, the President of Pakistan is clear that any diplomatic advance in Agra will be measured against India's willingness to review its position on Kashmir. Can Prime Minister Vajpayee oblige his guest?

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COVER STORY: INDO-PAK SPECIAL

LITTLE CHANCE OF SUCCESS

By Hamid Gul

Any dialogue that takes place under pressure cannot work. In Agra, Vajpayee and Musharraf will at best agree to keep the dialogue going.

General Musharraf has already offered a hand of friendship by accepting Prime Minister Vajpayee's invitation but the crucial question is: what will come of this? Several such summits have been held in the past but nothing substantial has ever come out of them because India is the usurper. Pakistan has never held back when it comes to the issue of Kashmir but India is uncomfortable about discussing it.

A solemn commitment was made to the Kashmiris by the Indian leadership. They were to be given a choice to decide their future and it is the denial of this right that is at the heart of the problem between the two countries. If Vajpayee does not seriously discuss Kashmir, Musharraf's visit might well turn out to be a waste of time. Just like the Lahore bus journey.

India has only two alternatives. To either negotiate Kashmir or risk a nuclear war. I know that the Indian armed forces are getting very restive and want to see Pakistan defeated on the battleground but that comes with nuclear risks. We saw what happened during Kargil. The threat of escalation led to intervention by President Clinton. Vajpayee's invitation to Musharraf obviously has its origins in America. The Indian prime minister is working under pressure and the lure of incentives. There are no free lunches in Washington. India offered talks under American pressure and expects sanctions to be lifted in return. It also has an eye on a seat in the United Nations Security Council.

It would do well for both India and Pakistan to remember that any dialogue that takes place under pressure cannot work. There has to be an intrinsic logic that suits the two parties concerned. What progress are you going to make by reclaiming Azad Kashmir? That is not going to bring peace to Kashmir. And why this persistent question of whether Musharraf can rein in the jehadis or not? Why should he? What wrong are they doing in Kashmir by waging a freedom struggle? They are only agitating for a right which is stubbornly being denied to them. How can India talk of itself as a great democratic nation when it opposes a vote? And why at a time when the Indian security forces are feeling the heat?

In Agra, the two sides will at best agree to demilitarise Siachen but that will put pressure on Musharraf. How can he return to Pakistan with that? For, in Siachen it is the Indian soldier who is feeling the pinch again. To my mind, the two will at best agree to keep the dialogue going. I expect no great breakthrough because I don't think India has had a change of heart vis-a-vis Kashmir. Unless that happens it will be difficult to see Vajpayee in the mould of, say, Nixon.

(The author is a former chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence)

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