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COVER STORY: INDO-PAK SPECIAL
FROM HAWKS TO DOVES
By Mushahid Hussain
 Two
statements provide the best clues to what President Musharraf and Prime
Minister Vajpayee could achieve at their forthcoming summit. Speaking
at a Track II meeting in Islamabad in July 1992, BJP ideologue K.R. Malkani
said, "Pakistan-India relations will improve and the Kashmir issue
settled only when the BJP comes to power." And after meeting Musharraf
at the Islamic Summit in Qatar in November 2000, All Party Hurriyat Conference
(APHC) leader Mirwaiz Omar Farooq seemed pleasantly surprised to discover
the extent of "flexibility in any Pakistani leader's views on Kashmir".
This is not the first Indo-Pakistan summit with
so much hype surrounding it. But it would be instructive to recall the
false starts of the past. In 1989, the two "new generation"
leaders, Benazir Bhutto and Rajiv Gandhi, promised a better tomorrow.
But Rajiv failed to deliver on his Siachen commitment due to "political
problems". In 1997, the Punjabi pair-Nawaz Sharif and I.K. Gujral-hit
it off, but six months later Gujral confessed to "political pressures",
meaning the BJP, holding him back. In 1999, Vajpayee's bus diplomacy got
derailed at Kargil.
Both sides drew their own conclusions. Pakistan
probably realised that the BJP was the best bet to do business with. And
Vajpayee felt that perhaps the army could be relied upon to deliver.
What could make a difference this time?
On Kashmir, both countries have failed to achieve
their maximalist goals. Pakistan couldn't "internationalise"
the issue. Now there is no talk of un resolutions or seeking US' mediation.
India's attempt to "Pakistanise" the issue by treating it as
a by-product of "cross-border terrorism" also failed. Hence
its willingness to negotiate with the Hizb-ul Mujahideen, the APHC, and
to invite Musharraf to India. Strategic considerations compel India to
settle Kashmir. An unwinnable war in Kashmir and problems with Pakistan
retard its quest for big-power status.
Unlike in the past, neither Musharraf nor Vajpayee
need to look over their shoulders. Both are secure in their role and image
as guardians of the family silver. In any case, the world community, particularly
the US, won't allow the "most dangerous place in the world"
to become more dangerous.
Already a subtle change is discernible in the
stated positions of Pakistan and India. They have accepted that the Kashmir
issue is neither "bilateral" nor "international" but
trilateral, with the third party, the Kashmiris, as the centrepiece of
any settlement. The summit would be a "success" if both leaders
can agree on a scenario that alters the status quo, inject Kashmiris into
the talks, schedule a next meeting, settle Siachen and agree on the pipeline.
Hawks do make the transition to peacemakers, a role both Musharraf and
Vajpayee covet.
(The author was the information minister of
Pakistan under Nawaz Sharif)
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