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COVER STORY: INDO-PAK SPECIAL
ANALYSE AND THEN ACT
By Afsir Karim
Will the Indo-Pak
summit help bring down the simmering tensions in Kashmir? Opinions differ
vastly. Rhetoric and hyperbole aside, there is no change in the prevailing
situation in Kashmir. Tensions may appear to recede during the talks,
but that will be a temporary reprieve. The ground realities will be different.
An objective analysis of the causes and the areas of concern could lead
to a fair assessment of the situation, and also provide solutions.
First, the summit will not abate tensions on
the loc unless all hostile posturing across-the-line firing and infiltration
of terrorist groups are stopped. In the present circumstances, this seems
unlikely as Pakistan believes that India will act reasonably only if kept
under pressure. Although intensive shelling was stopped as a reciprocal
gesture to the declaration of unilateral non-initiation of combat operations
by India, sporadic firing and tensions continue in certain segments of
the loc and the international border in south Jammu. Tensions can be eased
if Pakistan resolves to stop infiltration, but Musharraf has already declared
that the time to rein in the jehadis has not yet come. By all indications,
cross-border terrorism will continue, which will result in instant confrontation
between the two sides, disrupt civilian life in border areas and lead
to increased terrorist attacks.
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Unless Pakistan recalls its terrorist-jehadi
groups from Kashmir or India forces them to quit, there is little
chance of peace in the Kashmir Valley.
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Secondly, the presence of jehadi outfits in Kashmir's
rural and urban areas cause unrest. Civilians are caught in the cross-fire
between terrorists and the security forces. Before 1989, there was no
Pak-sponsored terrorism. Security forces were nowhere in sight. Peace
prevailed in Kashmir. Obviously, unless terrorist groups are forced to
quit Kashmir, tensions will continue. But with little hope of Pakistan
intending to recall sponsored terrorist groups or asking them to lie low
(at least during the summit), there is little chance of normalcy.
Thirdly, the shortsighted policies of our political
parties are also to blame for increasing communal tensions. Pakistan took
advantage of this trend. It resulted in an attack on Hindu pilgrims and
Bihari labourers during the Amarnath yatra last year. These tactics could
be repeated, as the recent bomb attack on pilgrims to Vaishno Devi temple
suggests.
Lastly, by all indications Pakistan is going
to insist that the loc be extended from NJ 9842 to the Karakoram Pass-an
alignment that would give the entire Siachen area and Daulat Beg Oldi
to Pakistan. It would also provide a second Sino-Pak link-up. This arrangement
would render Leh extremely vulnerable from the north and will make our
positions in the Shyok Valley untenable. India can hardly be expected
to accept this arrangement. Confrontation can only be stopped if both
armies mutually withdraw from the glacier and negotiate further.
(The author is a retired major-general and a strategic
affairs expert)
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