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COVER STORY: INDO-PAK
SPECIAL
Winds Of Change
By Ishtiaq Ali Mekhri in Karachi
Kashmir is no longer an emotional issue and the
people of Pakistan will welcome a solution to a historical problem
No Pakistani military ruler could have anticipated
meaningful talks with the Indian prime minister in a congenial environment.
The invitation by Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee to President Pervez Musharraf
was, therefore, a bolt from the blue. It has now become Musharraf's "legitimacy
card", one which he hopes to cash in on in discussing the issue of
Kashmir that has always been a bone of contention between the two neighbours.
Of course, expectations are not too high but
the stakes are, as always. Islamabad's Foreign Office says that the agenda
for talks is "just" Kashmir, but it is common knowledge in the
corridors of power it is a mixed bag of subjects that the general is expected
to take to the negotiations.
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PEACE BANDWAGON: Musharraf meeting POK leaders to elicit their
views on the summit
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The
expectations on both sides are not very high, but the stakes certainly
are.
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There are two salient points to consider before
the summit. First, what the Kashmiris expect. Secondly what the Pakistani
establishment is up to. From the Kashmiris' point of view a lot has changed
in the past couple of months. The people of the state want peace but are,
of course, looking for a face-saving formula, having fought for self-determination
all these years. With the international community giving their cause little
support, many feel their fate could get only worse. They could therefore
be asked to accept a formula that will give them dignity and honour with
civil and constitutional rights.
But there is a flip side. The jehadis are refusing
to budge until they "bleed" the Indians and "free"
Kashmir from their yoke. It is these forces that the General needs to
check before flying down for any meaningful talks. Many in Islamabad,
however, feel the current silence of the jehadis is a victory for General
Musharraf. He has already convinced them that with dignity assured for
them, whatever else he agrees to will be in the best national interest
of Pakistan. And since this is something no civilian government has been
able to do, the military regime can legitimately feel it has reason to
be proud.
Islamabad has also swiftly moved away from the
repeated chorus of tripartite talks and opted for a more "rational"
bilateral approach. The indications are clear: even the All-Party Hurriyat
Conference has been cut to size and its requests to meet the Pakistan
President in Delhi have not been acceded to. The Hurriyat has only been
extended a courtesy invitation by the Pakistan High Commission in Delhi.
There can be no clearer indication of a change in thinking than this.
Not a single voice of dissent has marred Musharraf's
decision to cross the border. The vocal Jamaat-e-Islami, often the dissenter,
has backed any venture for peace so long as it safeguards the Kashmiri
interests. The fact that the two major political parties-the Pakistan
People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim League-in the garb of Alliance
for Restoration of Democracy (ARD) missed the bus is not much of an issue.
With the army in the driving seat, there is not much they can do anyway.
Musharraf is going to India from a position
of strength. He has successfully carried along the politicians, religious
scholars and opinion makers, not a mean task for an unelected ruler. He
has shed his image of an intruder in Pakistan's political horizon following
the October 12, 1999 coup. In presenting the nation with solutions that
would guarantee them peace, stability and self-respect on the foreign
policy front, he seems to have done his homework well. An important aspect
of the summit is that Kashmir is no longer an emotional issue. Now the
popular mood is for a solution to a problem that history had burdened
them with. It appears the people will welcome any solution that will cut
down the cost of sustaining a war.
Foreign Office officials in Islamabad hint at
a scaled-down approach by the President. They say if India withdraws its
forces from the "Held" Valley, allows maximum autonomy, ensures
free movement of people across the Kashmir border, accepts Azad Kashmir
as a part of Pakistan and strikes a balance on the Siachen issue, then
it would be a good beginning. In return, Pakistan would not insist on
including Jammu and Ladakh in a final solution. It would also make its
oft-repeated rhetoric on a UN resolution on Kashmir less shrill.
The President is carrying with him a bag brimming
with concessions: easing of travel restrictions, opening of an Indian
consulate in Karachi, granting of most favoured nation status to India
on trade and agreeing to the multi-billion dollar Indo-Iran gas pipeline
that will fetch Pakistan at least $400 million annually. This is a significant
movement forward, but then it is also the first time that people feel
there is an element of willingness on both side of the borders to better
relations.
But the driving force behind the summit is international
pressure. Officials in Islamabad say the Americans have told Pakistan
rather bluntly to "do all it can to clear the mess regarding Kashmir".
The US has also openly asked Pakistan to pull in the various terrorist
groups conducting the jehad in the Valley and Islamabad, according to
sources, has no choice but to oblige. Then there is the China factor.
With around $1.6 billion of Chinese money pouring into Pakistan's economy
to build the Gawadar Port as well as a soft $1 billion loan, Islamabad
is now ready to believe it cannot live with the illusions that it has
sovereignty over Kashmir.
In contrast to recent discussions between the
two nations, there is today an army general striking a deal. Such is the
strength of an authoritarian regime that no one can or will suspect Musharraf's
wisdom in what he decides to agree to in Agra. If India reciprocates,
history can be made.
Full text of all stories at www.thenewspapertoday.com
Also: 'Talks by the Taj': Follow exclusive, interactive news and views
of the Vajpayee-Musharraf summit at www.thenewspapertoday.com
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