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COVER STORY: INDO-PAK SPECIAL
Kashmir On The Mind
President Musharraf comes to Agra determined to
make Kashmir the only pivot of bilateral relations. Will the affable Vajpayee
be able to blunt the offensive?
By Harinder Baweja and Shishir Gupta
The elaborate bandobast
is almost complete, the atmospherics are in place and the lights are about
to be switched on for one of the most publicised events of the year. The
opening round of niceties too has been exchanged. Prime Minister Atal
Bihari Vajpayee finds President Pervez Musharraf "sincere, frank
and warm" and the General in turn respects Vajpayee as an elder and
a statesman. As the two leaders go through frenetic rounds of preparatory
meetings, the people of India and Pakistan anxiously await the outcome
of a summit held in the backdrop of one of the seven wonders of the world-the
Taj Mahal, Mughal emperor Shahjahan's monument of love.
 If
the venue is incongruous, given the five decades of India-Pakistan hostility,
so are the personalities involved. One is a veteran politician given to
bouts of oratory and poetry, the other a professional soldier trying his
hand at politics. Their styles are markedly different. Vajpayee is all
old-world charm and talks in riddles, while Musharraf is business-like
and clinically precise.
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ROAD TO PEACE: On the eve of talks tension prevails
on Kashmir streets
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| KASHMIR
Musharraf has projected Kashmir as
the only problem in Indo-Pak relations.
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Ironically, it is this ruthless clarity of the
Pakistan President that is worrying Delhi. In the run-up to his India
visit, Musharraf has displayed single-minded purposefulness. In consolidating
his power base, addressing audiences at home, silencing critics and shaping
the agenda for his dialogue with Vajpayee, he has displayed frightening
clarity. Vajpayee, on the other hand, has persisted with an interminable
pause. Unlike India that has become preoccupied with the finer details
of sentimentalised hospitality, Musharraf has moved decisively towards
linking diplomatic progress with Indian willingness to accommodate him
on the "core issue"-Kashmir.
Musharraf has stretched the limits of Indian
endurance by flaunting his endorsement of the Hurriyat Conference. He
has even equated standard Indian descriptions of Kashmir being an "integral
part" of India as provocations. South Block hasn't responded and
this is being interpreted in Islamabad as evidence of India's weakness.
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EXPECTATIONS
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Pakistan wants India to agree that Kashmir is a disputed territory.
All for involvement of the Hurriyat in a tripartite dialogue.
India hopes that a forward movement on Kashmir will lead to reduction
in infiltration from across the LOC.
Pakistan wants reduction in Indian troop strength in Kashmir.
India hopes that a spell of peace along the loc will automatically
reduce violence in the Valley.
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LIKELY OUTCOME
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Dialogue on Kashmir may be upgraded to the level of foreign ministers.
Redeployment of troops along the loc provided Pakistan reins in
pan-Islamic forces and checks infiltration.
Cold LOC could lead to porous borders. Opening of the Uri-Chakoti
crossing to facilitate people-to-people contact in Kashmir.
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Ironically, till May 23, when Delhi called off
the cease-fire in Kashmir and simultaneously extended an invitation to
Islamabad, it was Musharraf who was begging a call "at any time,
any place and any level". It was Vajpayee who got all the international
acclaim for his noble and statesman-like gesture. But in just six weeks,
Musharraf appears to have turned the tables. He is now setting the agenda.
Says former foreign secretary J.N. Dixit: "We already sound defensive
and apologetic when we should have been the ones dictating terms to a
man who was desperately seeking legitimacy." Adds G. Parthasarathy,
former high commissioner in Islamabad: "Musharraf is redefining the
bilateral framework and making it Kashmir centric."
Impressions could be deceptive. Unlike politics,
diplomacy is only peripherally about posturing, and there may be merit
in keeping the cards close to the chest. However, the belief is gaining
ground that Vajpayee's invitation was not as premeditated as would appear.
It was also born of domestic compulsions, notably the NDA's poor performance
in the state elections and the waning authority of the Prime Minister's
Office (PMO) after the Tehelka revelations.
There are reasons to believe Pakistan has come
to the same conclusion about the timing of the invitation. Old Pakistan
hands have drawn South Block's attention to the possibility of a part
of Musharraf's impressive exercise being aimed at flattering Vajpayee.
The objective is to subtly prey on perceived differences between the prime
minister and his Home Minister L.K. Advani. Says a senior Ministry of
External Affairs (MEA) official: "Islamabad was watching the cease-fire
moves carefully and concluded that while the PMO favoured a dialogue on
Kashmir, the intelligence agencies and the Home Ministry did not."
Of course, the calculation ignores the fact that it was Advani who egged
on the prime minister to take the initiative in May. Also, Vajpayee informed
RSS chief K.S. Sudarshan before taking the plunge.
Musharraf was convinced that an invitation from
India was on its way after reading Vajpayee's "Kumarakom musings"
in January. Vajpayee had written: "In our search for a lasting solution
to the Kashmir problem, both in its external and internal dimensions,
we shall not traverse solely on the beaten track of the past. Rather,
we shall be bold and innovative designers of a future architecture of
peace and prosperity..."
The General made two other calculated presumptions:
the cease-fire was being extended because the Indian troops were tiring
in Kashmir, and that India had finally realised it had to take the aspirations
of the Kashmiri people into account. To him and the Pakistani establishment,
that meant one thing: the "thousand-cuts" offensive launched
by the ISI nearly a decade ago was yielding results. Thereafter, Musharraf
has moved steadfastly. After the formal invitation, he first assumed the
presidency and diligently placated all shades of Islamic opinion (see
accompanying story) with personal assurances that he was going to India
with the sole purpose of discussing Kashmir.
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