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COVER STORY: INDO-PAK
SPECIAL
An Old Fixation
Musharraf has made
no bones about the fact that he is on Mission Kashmir. He has sung this
tune in his interactions with his corps commanders, with editors and in
interviews. He informed the editors he had made it quite clear to Vajpayee
in his three telephone conversations that he was coming to discuss "Kashmir
and other issues and not other issues and Kashmir". He has even made
his intentions clear to Indian audiences and stated quite categorically
that he would discuss other issues like Siachen and free trade provided
"these issues do not dilute the process of dialogue on Kashmir".
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COLD REALITY: India wants a cease-fire on actual ground
position line
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| SIACHEN
No disengagement is possible without
total Indo-Pak trust.
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On a day when India was getting the atmospherics
right by announcing the release of civilian prisoners, Musharraf was defiantly
clubbing the UN resolution of 1948 with the Simla and Lahore bilateral
agreements: "A lot has changed since the Lahore Declaration and the
Simla Agreement... We are both nuclear powers now." That India and
Pakistan were nuclear powers even when Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif embraced
each other in Lahore is a matter of detail. What is important is that
Musharraf is not inclined to be hemmed in by the past. He wants to redefine
bilateral relations around Kashmir.
No wonder Indian officials are worried about
one-to-one meetings-present arrangements have kept these to a bare minimum-between
a determined General and an affable prime minister whose negotiating generosity
is legendary. Says a senior diplomat who was closely associated with Lahore:
"Even with a relatively moderate Nawaz Sharif, (Principal Secretary)
Brajesh Mishra had to fight tooth and nail against giving Kashmir too
much play in the joint declaration."
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EXPECTATIONS
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Pakistan wants India to pull back from the Saltoro ridge overlooking
the Siachen glacier.
India hopes for a cease-fire in Siachen after a detailed mapping
of the army positions on both sides.
Pakistan wants demilitarisation on the glacier, with the two armies
pulling back to their respective base camps.
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LIKELY OUTCOME
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Disengagement from Siachen only after restoration of mutual trust
destroyed during Kargil.
Both sides agree to reduce tensions. Decide to disengage from
authenticated positions.
The two armies decide to jointly monitor and patrol the glacier
to make sure that no position is re-occupied.
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Agra seems set to witness similar battles. Pakistan
has already floated several trial balloons and its media is speculating
about India agreeing to a reduction of troops in Kashmir and the demilitarisation
of the Siachen glacier. A report even talked of a trifurcation of Jammu
and Kashmir. Says Dixit: "We should not ignore these because they
are a part of psychological warfare."
While Pakistan is approaching Agra with a "high
stakes" focus, India is painting a picture of modest expectations
that contrasts sharply with the comic over-optimism of quasi-government
bodies that are talking of a SAARC parliament to rival the European Parliament
in Brussels. Even the RSS weekly Panchajanya has teamed up a Pakistani
Urdu newspaper to sponsor an essay competition on securing the peace.
These expressions of exuberance apart, the unofficial
MEA assessment is that the summit will probably lead to small steps forward:
An agreement by both sides on continuing the
dialogue, perhaps even setting the date for another summit.
The possibility of Kashmir being elevated to
future foreign minister-level talks rather than being confined to foreign
secretaries as is the case now.
The opening up of the Uri-Chakoti crossing on
the Line of Control in Kashmir to facilitate people-to-people contact.
Progress on the proposed overland gas pipeline
from Iran.
Some trade concessions and greater people-to-people
contact.
While there is little hope of a dramatic breakthrough-despite
Musharraf's proclamation of "flexibility"-there is also a general
consensus that the talks will not break down completely because Musharraf
is under domestic and international pressure. In a toss-up between the
two, the General will be conscious of the domestic, especially since he
will be returning from a visit to India and so will try to at least extract
mileage from the Kashmir issue even if he can't extract real concessions.
Vajpayee too will not like to be seen presiding over a second failure.
On the Kashmir issue, however, Musharraf could
encounter a roadblock. Just as Kashmir is the core issue for Pakistan,
India's stated position is that Kashmir is the core of its nationhood.
It is between these two conflicting stands that the two leaders will have
to think of a formulation that shows they are both serious about addressing
the issue. Delhi will try to link forward movement on Kashmir with cross-border
infiltration. But Pakistan will want this to be the price rather a precondition
of concessions. Says former foreign secretary Salman Haidar: "No
breakthrough can realistically be expected on Kashmir. Confidence-building
measures could include setting up some crossing points on the loc and
demilitarisation of Siachen. These might improve the atmosphere and deepen
the engagement between the two sides."
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