Mission Kashmir Having consolidated his position at home, the President of Pakistan is clear that any diplomatic advance in Agra will be measured against India's willingness to review its position on Kashmir. Can Prime Minister Vajpayee oblige his guest?

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COVER STORY: INDO-PAK SPECIAL

Modest Recipe For Disengagement

The Indian Army has already conveyed to the Government its willingness to consider troops reduction to pre-Kargil levels in Kashmir if Pakistan stops infiltration. It is also open to the idea of creating other border crossings along the lines of Attari and Wagah. But it insists on linking any disengagement on the Saltoro ridge overlooking the Siachen glacier with Musharraf's ability to contain the jehadis.

India has a modest recipe for disengagement in Siachen. According to sources, it will press for a cease-fire on the actual ground position line (AGPL). The AGPL will be mapped with grid references up to six digits to avoid confusion. Consequently, there will be joint monitoring and patrolling of the Saltoro ridge. As Indian troops are deployed on Indira Col near the Shaksgam Valley that was ceded by Pakistan to China, the army is loath to abandon this advantage. The Saltoro ridge is a wedge between the northern areas of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and the Chinese-occupied Aksai Chin. Hence disengagement on Siachen can be possible only if there is complete trust between Delhi and Islamabad.

The two sides will also talk nuclear risk reduction measures. Here too, any progress will depend on Musharraf's willingness to delink the issue from Kashmir. But since Musharraf knows that the West will keep honing in on South Asia for as long as it perceives the region to be a "nuclear flashpoint", delinking the two would hardly be high on his agenda. He may, at best, pay lip service to the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the two foreign secretaries in Lahore in 1998.

Pakistan has not accepted the no-first-use offer made by India in 1998 due to asymmetry in the conventional forces of the two countries. Instead, Islamabad has been offering a no-war pact to neutralise India's conventional superiority. In the absence of any real meeting ground, a token agreement may be reached on upgrading the existing communication links between the nuclear centres of the two countries. The hotline may be upgraded from the present director-general military operations level to that of vice-chief of army staff.

Unlike Musharraf, Delhi would rather talk business. India has granted the most favoured nation (MFN) status to Pakistan. But this gesture has not been reciprocated. India could ideally wait till 2003 when WTO commitments will force Pakistan to grant it the MFN status. But it would like to secure interim concessions in the hope that trade will create a substantial constituency in Pakistan with a vested interest in healthy bilateral relations. Pakistan is aware of this happening, which is why it links normalisation of trade to the Kashmir issue. The exception is the proposed Indo-Iran overland gas pipeline that not only gives Pakistan monetary benefits but accords it a strategic control over India's energy supplies.

Musharraf's Kashmir pre-condition will clearly weigh heavily on the summit. His political future-particularly his ability to control the jehadis- hinges substantially on his success in showing gains in Kashmir. With the economy in a shambles and international pressure mounting on Pakistan, Mission Kashmir is Musharraf's way of emerging from a difficult situation unscathed.

For Musharraf, even modest steps on Kashmir will do. Reshaping the agenda is a long haul and gains in Agra will be the thin end of the wedge. Having failed to secure Kashmir militarily, Pakistan has changed tack. Musharraf has merely repackaged an old objective with great skill and clarity. Tragically, the Indian response has been inadequate.

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