Missing The Leader
The nation seems to be in the middle of a leadership crisis. An opinion poll conducted by ORG-MARG for INDIA TODAY shows that both Vajpayee and Sonia Gandhi's popularity ratings have dropped, leaving the people yearning for a strong leader like Indira Gandhi.

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The INDIA TODAY-ORG-MARG opinion poll last January was Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's wake-up call. He chose to put the alarm clock on snooze and thereby accelerated the decline in his Government's popularity.

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COVER STORY: EXCLUSIVE OPINION POLL

In The Past Two Years Your Quality Of Life Has...

Which Of These Issues Concern You The Most?

For most Indians, the perception is one of stagnation. There isn't anything remotely resembling a "feel good" factor but more people believe the quality of their lives has worsened, rather than improved, in the second innings of the Vajpayee Government. The despondency is particularly marked in the bimaru states, West Bengal and Kerala. Curiously, even Haryana seems caught in the gloom. The problem isn't inflation, an area where the Government has done well, but unemployment. Add to this a rising concern about corruption and significantly heightened threat perception arising from cross-border terrorism, and it is possible to gauge why the Government is beleaguered.

Political change in India isn't always preceded by upheavals or electoral waves. By and large, people persist with their traditional affiliations. However, it is the floating vote-sometimes not exceeding 5 per cent-that can make or break governments. For the NDA Government, the areas of growing concern are visible. Failure to address them can lead to disgruntlement turning into anger.

Who Is The Best Person To Lead The NDA If Vajpayee Is Replaced?

	All	BJP+Voters
L.K. Advani	26	34
M.M. Joshi	4	4
Jaswant Singh	4	4
Chandrababu Naidu	4	4
Others	18	18
All figures in per cent REST: Don't know/Can't say

The Indian electorate has a penchant for incumbency and is painfully slow to anticipate change. Before his 13-day stint in 1996, Vajpayee's popularity didn't match that of P.V. Narasimha Rao and V.P. Singh's standing wasn't anywhere close to Rajiv Gandhi's in the late-1980s. Under the circumstances, L.K. Advani starts with a respectable level of acceptance among the electorate and those who vote for the BJP and its allies. Likewise, it is quite clear that Congress voters would like any successor to Sonia to belong to the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. None of the Congress chief ministers have so far managed to acquire a national profile.

Who Is The Best Person To Lead Congress If Sonia Is Replaced?

	All	Cong+Voters
Priyanka	23	27
Manmohan Singh	11	10
Rahul Gandhi	9	10
M. Scindia	8	7
Others	10	9
All figures in per cent REST: Don't know/Can't say

Methodology

The poll covered 17,400 respondents among eligible voters spread across 95 parliamentary constituencies in 16 states. The sample was representative of urban and rural areas, males and females and all age groups of Indian adults. The assembly constituencies were sampled on the stratified systematic random sampling method. House-to-house, face-to-face interviews were done within a selected constituency. All analysis has been done as BJP+allies, INC+allies and Others (including the Left Front). The field work for the study, which was overseen by ORG-MARG Research Director Vivek Kumar, was undertaken in the last 10 days of July 2001.

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