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THE NATION: KASHMIR MILITANCY

Communal Tinderbox

Unlike in the Valley, the mixed population of Jammu region makes it a communal tinderbox. In three of the six districts-Jammu, Kathua and Udhampur-the Hindu population is in majority, averaging 70-85 per cent of the total. But in the remaining three-Doda, Rajouri and Poonch-Muslims are in a majority and it is these areas that are facing the brunt of renewed militant attacks. "Controlling the communal situation is becoming increasingly difficult," says Divisional Commissioner Anil Goswami. When a militant slain in the August 7 railway station mayhem at Jammu was found to be from Anantnag, the authorities imposed curfew to pre-empt communal backlash against the Kashmiri community in the city. Says state BJP chief Daya Krishan Kotwal: "Jammu is boiling and patience is wearing thin with each massacre."

Also stoking communal passions is the strident demand of statehood for Jammu which is gathering momentum and has clear communal overtones. The 22 per cent Muslim population is living in the shadow of fear, demanding a curfew every time the militants unleash violence against the minority Hindus in Doda. Even the response to the promulgation of the Disturbed Areas Act, which gives security forces unlimited powers, has been on communal lines, raising the hackles of the Muslim community. "The Act has heightened the sense of insecurity among Muslims," says Abdul Majid, president of the Jammu Muslim Federation.

It's not just communal harmony that's under threat. At stake is the Rs 700-crore pilgrimage tourism that has been Jammu's mainstay; the annual rush of pilgrims touched 52 lakh last year. But with the increasing frequency of militant strikes, alarm bells are beginning to sound for business in this city of temples. In the past six months, real-estate prices have crashed by more than 50 per cent and there are reports of industrialists fleeing the area. "Fear is sinking in and the business community is shaken as never before," says Ram Sahai, chairman of the Jammu Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The industrialists are having second thoughts on expansion while many good business families are keen to shift out of Jammu.

According to the army, at least 600 militants crossed over to Jammu area this year. But the police and intelligence agencies believe the number is twice this figure. The disturbing fact is the recent upsurge in the local content making up the militant ranks. Foreign mercenaries (mostly Pakistanis) belonging to the Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Hizb-ul Mujahideen still account for 50-60 per cent. But with the militant strikes whipping up communal tension, there has been a spurt in the number of the local youth joining the jehadis. The threat perception in the area has also increased amidst reports of Deobandis from Uttar Pradesh being active in the Poonch-Rajouri sector. Another worrying aspect unfolding in this area is reports about militants' attempts to establish training camps. With a high attrition rate along the loc, the militant plan is both to cut the losses of traversing long distances to PoK and impart indigenous moorings to militancy.

The Indian strategy evolved after Jammu was declared a disturbed area is to neutralise pan-Islamic jehadis within a counter-infiltration zone in a bid to protect the hinterland of Doda, Kishtwar and Kathua. The Government's fresh initiative calls for rapid deployment of forces with IAF's helicopters being used to provide supplies and ferry paramilitary personnel to the site of counter-insurgency operations. This is to reduce the response time of the security forces in areas such as Doda where it takes several hours before information related to militant strike or activity reaches the security forces. But intelligence gathering continues to be the forces' weakest area. Taking advantage of the lull during the Ramzan cease-fire, militants killed at least 60 local informers.

To instil confidence among the local populace, the Government plans to equip the civilian administration with communication sets. More police stations, better coordination between the civilian set-up and the forces and the arming of village defence committees under the "self protection" scheme are on the anvil. These measures are supposed to go hand-in-hand with a political package that aims to develop the remote areas of Jammu by building roads and providing employment to youth.

The coming months will be a crucial test as to whether Indian forces can thwart Pakistan's latest plan. It is also likely to be one of the bloodiest fall seasons in the region.

—With Shishir Gupta

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