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DIPLOMACY: INDO-US RELATIONS
Shedding Baggage
With Washington indicating that it may jettison sanctions
soon, President Bush is all set to radically redefine how the two countries
view each other
By Raj Chengappa
 Robert
D. Blackwill is a trifle disappointed that he will not be able to visit
Jaipur's Amer fort riding an elephant. It is his first trip out of Delhi
after his arrival in India as the US ambassador designate and along with
his wife, Wera, he wants to soak in as much of the country as he can.
The former Harvard professor, who looks every bit the scholar, is amused,
however, by the reason given by officials for his inability to ride an
elephant. It is the rutting season, they tell him, which makes the tuskers
frisky and unpredictable.
Ever since he flew into India last month, Blackwill
is in a tearing hurry to get on with the job and make a difference. The
joke in Washington is that the State Department officials were relieved
to wave him a goodbye. The reason: he had exhausted them by insisting
on back-to-back meetings with key policy-makers and think-tankers after
being nominated to the post by US President George Bush. In Delhi, he
exhibited the same penchant for work. The embassy staff, used to his easy-paced
predecessor Richard Celeste, found themselves being woken up at five in
the morning by a call from Blackwill asking for a briefing on one or the
other issue. Almost every evening he invited people with a range of specialisations
for what he called "round-table" dinners where, as an invitee
puts it, "he made us sing for our supper with his barrage of questions".
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WHO CALLS
THE SHOTS IN D.C.
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JOE BIDEN: Head of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee wants the sanctions to go
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CONDOLEEZZA
RICE: National security adviser is supportive of India's nuclear stance |
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CHRISTINA ROCCA: The new
assistant secretary of state has a balanced approach
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RICHARD
ARMITAGE: The deputy secretary of state is gung ho about relations
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Blackwill's hard-drive approach and the strong
signals emanating from Washington indicate that a major shift in Indo-US
relations is in the offing. For several decades, relations between the
two countries have been held hostage either to America's hostility over
India's nuclear policy or by its decided tilt towards Pakistan. Bush is
keen on radically "redefining" the US relations with India and
is willing to throw out the baggage of the past. There are strong indications
that by the time he meets Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee on the sidelines
of the UN General Assembly session in the last week of September, he may
use his presidential discretion to lift economic and military sanctions
that the US slapped on India after its May 1998 nuclear tests.
Although relations between the two countries
improved considerably in the last year of Bill Clinton's presidency, nothing
substantial was gained. If Bush lifts the sanctions it would not only
remove a major irritant between the two countries but will be proof that
the Republican President is serious about implementing the "big ideas"
he has about Indo-US relations. The process of rolling the sanctions back
in consultation with the US Congress will resume when it meets after a
recess this month. But it is clear that a deal has been struck, with prominent
lawmakers such as Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph R.
Biden Jr, a Democrat, writing to Bush to lift the curbs. With the Congress
being controlled by the Democrats, it helps that India has bipartisan
support.
Meanwhile, the soundbites from prominent administration
officials have been music to India's ears. On Kashmir, much to Pakistan's
dismay, the new administration has indicated that it will remain neutral.
Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage during his visit to India in
May this year made it clear that a solution to the Kashmir issue "will
not be imposed from outside and it is not going to be the US that is going
to get into the middle of it".
Armitage, who has a wrestler's build, was sent
by Bush to brief India about his new ballistic missile defence (BMD) plan.
India was among a handful of countries that were treated with such a high-level
visit on a subject that is the centrepiece of the administration's foreign
policy. It was an indication that the US wanted India to sit at the head
table in international affairs. India reciprocated by being among the
three countries that extended support to the BMD proposal, something that
was noted with appreciation by the US.
On the nuclear issue, the Bush Administration
is all set to break away from the past. Blackwill is clear: "We are
not going to be a nagging nanny. We will not lecture India anymore."
The lifting of sanctions, though conditional, will be the first step.
With Bush making it clear that the CTBT is a dead treaty, another stick
to beat India with is being dropped.
Though Congress has still not agreed to remove
the legislations that imposed the sanctions in the first place, the gung
ho approach by the administration is typical of the style with which it
is unfurling its new foreign policy. Bush's advisers call it "international
Americanism". In reality, it has translated itself into an America-first
policy that has had many of the US allies smarting under what they called
the "cowboy" approach. Especially with the way it has gone about
bashing treaties such as the Kyoto agreement on climate change and the
anti-ballistic missile treaty with Russia.
India, however, isn't complaining. Yet. Though
Blackwill comes with no hands-on experience on dealing with south Asia,
he does have considerable clout in the new administration. He was a special
assistant on national security affairs to Papa Bush when he was President.
During Bush's campaign for presidency, Blackwill was part of a core group
of advisers on foreign policy and security issues called the Vulcans.
Each of them now occupies key positions in the new administration. It
includes Condoleezza Rice who is the national security adviser and is
supportive of India.
Blackwill comes to India with a reputation of
having friends who matter apart from having access to a direct line to
the President. Indian foreign policy experts regard him as "a serious,
professional diplomat" and point to the fact that he has come better
prepared for the job than most US ambassadors in the recent past have.
With Christina Rocca, the new assistant secretary of state for south Asia,
also indicating a friendly and balanced approach towards India, Washington
seems all set to change old mindsets.
The next few months will see a flurry of visits
from top US officials including Secretary of State Colin Powell and Defence
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Once the sanctions are lifted, imports from
the US that have stagnated at $3 billion (Rs 14,100 crore) are likely
to get a boost. There is even a possibility of the sale of military equipment
which may help cement the improving military relationship between the
two countries. Since India would blanch at being called an "ally",
the new label that it has been given is a "close friend". Part
of the US game plan is to possibly build India as a buffer against China
in Asia especially if its neighbour continues to prove troublesome. India
though is wary of such a move as it is not keen to unnecessarily provoke
China.
Despite the new-found bonhomie there are major
irritants that could sour relations. The US is not likely to downgrade
its relations with Pakistan and will keep propping up the country so as
to have some hold over it. On the business front, big US companies that
have invested in India are unhappy with the slow pace of economic reforms
and are increasingly becoming cynical about the prospects for major change.
The controversy over the Dabhol power plant in Maharashtra has, as Blackwill
puts it, "darkened India's investment climate". Also, if the
US finds that after according such importance to relations with India
there are no real returns then the enthusiasm may vanish very quickly.
Unlike in India, the watches on American hands seem to move much faster
on these issues.
—with bureau reports
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