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COVER STORY: INDIAN RESPONSE
Returns From The Long Run
September 11 signalled the formal shift in foreign
policy. Now India is trying to balance its support to America with moves
to keep its friendships in the Islamic world intact.
—By Shishir Gupta
"In a New York minute, everything can
change..."
Veteran rocker Don
Henley may have had only the Big Apple in mind when he crooned those lyrics
but when suicide bombers crashed two commercial aircraft into the World
Trade Center towers on September 11 it was the global geopolitics that
underwent a tectonic shift. The tremors are being felt in South Asia,
what with the US now set to launch action against Saudi fugitive Osama
bin Laden and committed to drain out terrorism along the Pakistan-Afghanistan
arc. The war clouds have also altered political equations in the Indian
subcontinent, with Pakistan dumping its brainchild and long-standing ally,
the Taliban, and pledging unstinted cooperation to the US in its fight
to "smoke out" bin Laden.
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JASWANT SINGH
Foreign and Defence Minister
"We are happy
to see that a terrorist state is now fighting the source of terrorism."
"Neither
has the United States sought permission nor has India offered any
of its military bases for use by the US forces."
"Pakistan is
still promoting cross-border terrorism despite the country's claims
to support the fight against global terrorism."
"Terrorism cannot
be synonymous with Islam. Gen Musharraf forgets the fact that the
number of Muslims in India far exceeds the number in Pakistan."
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GEN PERVEZ MUSHARRAF
Pakistan President |
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"India has
offered all their military facilities, bases and logistic support
to the US. They want to enter into any alliance with the US and
get Pakistan declared a terrorist state."
"I would like
to tell India, lay off. It is trying hard to harm Pakistan and defame
Islam. If you watch their television, you will find them dishing out
propaganda against Pakistan, day in and day out."
"India is totally
isolated from Afghanistan. In my view, if and when the government
in Afghanistan changes, India will ensure that it is an anti-Pakistan
government."
"India wants to
harm our strategic assets and the Kashmir cause."
India is for a global front against
terrorism, not wanting the struggle to be confined to an individual.
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For Delhi, the shift in its US foreign policy
has been no less spectacular. When the US rained cruise missiles on Afghanistan
in 1998, the Indian armed forces prepared a contingency plan after war-gaming
a similar scenario against India. This time around, however, Prime Minister
Atal Bihari Vajpayee offered to "cooperate" with the US in its
global fight against terrorism. A week later, India has nuanced its approach
by advocating an international coalition to deal with terrorism in a concerted
and sustained manner. While Delhi wants to be in the forefront in fighting
global terrorism, it does not want to antagonise its traditional friends
in the Islamic world.
India is all for a global front against terrorism,
not wanting the struggle to be confined to an individual or one of its
manifestations. In fact, External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh favours
exercising the military option against Afghanistan only after diplomatic,
legal and political measures have been exhausted. The consultations between
Singh and his counterparts in the US, Russia, UK and Iran last week are
being seen as part of an effort to convince the US that a "concert
of democracies"-rather than expedient alliances with dubious dictatorships-was
needed to counter terrorism. National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra's
visits to Moscow and Washington are also intended to convey that the fight
should be against terrorist systems, not against Islam.
The Indian stance of delinking terrorism from
Islam came much before Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf's uncouth
tirade against India to justify his granting military bases to the US
for strikes against Afghanistan. In his address to the nation last week,
Musharraf tried to convince the domestic audience that Islamabad was seeking
a temporary alliance with the US for the ultimate victory-Kashmir. In
a simple but stinging retort Singh brought home Pakistan's questionable
pedigree in the matter. "We are happy to see that a terrorist state
is now fighting the source of terrorism," he told Hindi news channel
Aaj Tak. However, the Indian political establishment is perturbed at Musharraf's
efforts to gain global mileage on Kashmir by joining hands with the US
military options. The fear is that Islamabad may cut a deal with Washington
on the issue, leaving Delhi high and dry. More so, as the US is almost
desperate not to appear anti-Islamic in its robustness.
While this aspect has been thoroughly debated
by the Union Cabinet, South Block mandarins are not unduly perturbed.
India's composure stems from the fact that barring its military plans,
Washington has been sharing with Delhi broad details of negotiations with
Pakistan and the Taliban. The Indian perception is that the fight against
terrorism will be a very "long haul" and that the US won't tilt
towards Pakistan at the cost of its developing relationship with India.
"The US is fully aware that a majority of the Taliban have been indoctrinated
in religious schools in Karachi and Peshawar, and that a large number
of Mullah Mohammed Omar's commanders are Pakistani ISI regulars and ex-servicemen,"
says a senior official.
All the same, Delhi doesn't want to be caught
in the Pakistani trap of being bracketed with Israel-a symbol of anti-Islam
in the Arab world. The report from Islamabad that Musharraf had told the
US it wanted to keep India and Israel out of the anti-terrorism coalition
was the final straw. Although US Ambassador Robert Blackwill, during his
meeting with Home Minister L.K. Advani, denied any such request by Pakistan,
India saw it as a signal to temper its approach and not appear slavishly
pro-US. The result was the symbolic exchange of notes between Singh and
his Iranian and Saudi Arabian counterparts last week.
However, despite its convergence of interests
with the US, Delhi has had to address domestic fears over the growing
proximity between Islamabad and Washington. Singh went public with the
view that these contacts may not have a negative impact on India and even
quoted US President George W. Bush as saying that the present crisis may
lead to a healthy restructuring of Indo-Pakistan ties. According to him,
Pakistan's readiness to join the anti-terrorism campaign is a good development.
Delhi, he argued, would rather have Pakistan behave as a normal state
than become a safe haven of terrorist groups intent on waging a jehad
against India.
India's other area of concern is the anti-Taliban
Northern Alliance after the assassination of its commander Ahmed Shah
Masood. The veteran Tajik commander was killed in a suicide attack by
two Arabs with Belgian passports masquerading as TV journalists. The assassins
reportedly carried letters of accreditation from the UK-based Islamic
Observation Centre that is known to have links with bin Laden. Although
Pakistan insists India has no locus standi in Afghanistan, Delhi is already
looking at a post-Taliban scenario. The meeting of officials from the
Central Asian Republics, Russia, Iran and India at Dushanbe in Uzbekistan
earlier this month was aimed at reviving the anti-Taliban alliance to
provide added muscle to the US anti-terrorism campaign. Since 1996, India
has given measured support to the Northern Alliance.
Delhi, however, is not quite sure about the
timing of the US military action against Afghanistan. The feeling is that
the red flag may go up in October as Washington is still trying to locate
bin Laden and his Al Qaida associates. Meanwhile, the Taliban too may
be trying to buy time by asking bin Laden to volunteer his surrender.
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