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COVER STORY: PAKISTAN
GUEST COLUM: MUSHAHID HUSSAIN
Overt Support, Covert Dissent
Washington's campaign to overthrow the Taliban regime
has Islamabad worried
 A
fortnight after the devastation of September 11, Washington and Islamabad
are keen to muffle the first voices of dissent in the carefully cobbled
coalition against terrorism. At the core of any possible cleavage are
competing interests over Afghanistan, particularly the scenario for "the
day after". The key areas of divergence revolve around the role of
the Northern Alliance in the anti-Taliban campaign and the new political
dispensation to replace the Taliban.
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UNEASY ALLIES: Pakistanis view the Taliban as a friendly
regime
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Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar has bluntly
warned that "we must not make the blunder of trying to foist a government
on the people of Afghanistan". His comments came in the context of
signals of covert "flirtation" between the US and the Northern
Alliance. Earlier, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice told TV
networks on September 23 that the Afghans would be "better off"
without the Taliban, a view echoed by President George W. Bush when he
sought "the cooperation of citizens within Afghanistan who may be
tired of having the Taliban in place". Later, the White House press
secretary was trotted out to clarify that the US campaign against terrorism
"is not designed to replace one regime with another".
Pakistan's concerns on this count are threefold.
First, the anti-terrorism campaign should be limited to nabbing Osama
bin Laden and his cohorts, not removing a regime perceived as "friendly"
to Pakistan. Second, ensuring the Northern Alliance is not enlisted into
the "get Osama" campaign since, in that case, it would surely
be transformed into a "get Taliban" operation as well. And third,
concerns that enlarging the US anti-terrorism agenda beyond its stated
goal would generate instability and uncertainty in Afghanistan, inducing
a refugee influx into Pakistan and adding to the 2.2 million already there.
Pakistan could earn the Taliban's ire; that, in turn, may destabilise
Pakistan given the Taliban's links with seminaries and politically active
religious groups across the Durand Line.
The problem is that others in the region do
not share this perspective. Turkey and Russia have publicly proclaimed
their support for the Northern Alliance. Iran is not likely to shed tears
for the Taliban's demise. Nor would China, whose intelligence experts
recently met their US counterparts to share information on Afghanistan.
The US seems to be working on a strategy that may be at variance with
Pakistan. There has been a massive media-cum-psychological offensive to
pressure the Taliban and tighten the political and diplomatic "noose",
by the induction of military manpower and firepower in the region. The
decision by the UAE and Saudi Arabia to break all ties with the Taliban
has certainly added to the isolation the religious militia in Afghanistan
feels.
Also, a more discreet intelligence-cum-political
manoeuvre is under way to weaken the Taliban from within by inducing defections
of key field commanders-a tactic the Taliban had used to capture power.
In this game plan, the replacement of the regime is an American goal,
although their preferred mechanism seems inducing a peaceful unravelling
rather than defeating it militarily. The US contacts with former king
Zahir Shah are apparently part of this process. This is likely to unfold
in the coming weeks notwithstanding Pakistan's reservations.
(The author was Pakistan's information minister under Nawaz Sharif)
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